2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUNT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:34 · Alan Luna punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 15:00: Ryan Metz pass incomplete — UTEP win probability +7.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 2:54: Luke Elsner punt blocked by James Gray blocked by James Gray N/A return for no gain to the NoTex 35 — UTEP win probability +11.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:25: Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — UNT win probability +8.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 9:05: METZ,Ryan pass intercepted by SCOTT, Fred at the UTEP27, SCOTT, Fred return to the UTEP18 (BROOKS,Jerrod;JOHNSON,Kavika), PENALTY NT face mask (PRESTON, Ashton) 15 yards to the UTEP42, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY. — UTEP win probability +10.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:11: Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden Plinke — UTEP win probability +8.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 2:36UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.8%average punt
- Q2 13:57UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it54.8%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q2 2:34UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 24, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snapGo for it60.8%−2.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.8%average punt
- Q2 1:32UNT 4th & 1 at UTEP 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.0%71% to convertField goal35.1%−1.949% to makePunt33.4%−3.6average punt
- Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 43, up 7Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snapGo for it63.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:34UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 29, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it35.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%−2.7average punt
- Q3 6:58UNT 4th & 2 at UTEP 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.3%57% to convertField goal19.9%−1.566% to makePunt12.2%−9.2average punt
- Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 19 at UTEP 49, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it1.9%−1.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q4 5:43UNT 4th & 5 at UTEP 43, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.142% to convertField goal0.1%28% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1FG11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
50.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 6 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD8 plays · 81 yds · 0:0047% → 51%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
52.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 3 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
52.5%
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 6 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
52.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 5 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
52.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 11 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
UTEPDrive 5TD5 plays · 81 yds · 1:4044% → 51%
Q1 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+15
44.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Aaron Jones for 15 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 13:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
49.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7TD4 plays · 71 yds · 1:1349% → 56%
Q2 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+17
49.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
UTEPDrive 9TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
0
67.0%
Luke Elsner punt blocked by James Gray blocked by James Gray N/A return for no gain to the NoTex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD14 plays · 75 yds · 0:0038% → 46%
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
59.5%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 8 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+9
60.0%
Alec Morris run for 3 yds to the UTEP 11 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Devin Cockrell) to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
53.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT12 plays · -1 yds · 6:5155% → 66%
Q2 9:25
3RD & 18
OPP 37
-13
55.0%
Leon Hayes pass complete to Cole Freytag for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 31
50
-5
53.6%
Leon Hayes pass complete to Kalon Beverly for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 45Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
64.6%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Aaron Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12FG8 plays · 14 yds · 0:5433% → 36%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
66.8%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Wilson, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
67.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 6 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.6%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner Smiley, broken up by Justin RogersSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+2
64.2%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willy Ivery for 2 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
65.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 4 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
66.6%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Walter Dawn for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+11
65.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 11 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
UTEPDrive 16TD3 plays · 71 yds · 0:0072% → 82%
Q3 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-7
72.2%
Ryan Metz sacked by Jareid Combs for a loss of 7 yards to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+15
82.3%
METZ,Ryan pass intercepted by SCOTT, Fred at the UTEP27, SCOTT, Fred return to the UTEP18 (BROOKS,Jerrod;JOHNSON,Kavika), PENALTY NT face mask (PRESTON, Ashton) 15 yards to the UTEP42, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0017% → 19%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
82.6%
Tyler Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Nick Usher) to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
81.0%
IVERY, Willy rush over right guard for 6 yards to the UTEP49 (COCKRELL,Devin), PENALTY NT holding (KEENAN, Trey) 10 yards to the NT35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+21
82.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 21 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
80.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 5 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
79.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willy Ivery for 3 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+5
80.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 5 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
80.6%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner Smiley, broken up by Dante LoviletteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0088% → 96%
UNTDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:064% → 2%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
96.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willy Ivery for 15 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
96.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 12 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-12
96.3%
Alec Morris sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the UTEP 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
97.7%
Eric Keena punt for 41 yds , Terry Juniel returns for no gain to the UTEP 5 Terry Juniel fumbled, recovered by UTEP Terry JunielSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD12 plays · 95 yds · 0:0098% → 100%
UNTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22FUMBLE2 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
UNTDrive 23TD6 plays · 48 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Kenny Buyers, broken up by Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+10
99.9%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 10 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+15
99.0%
MORRIS, Alec rush left for 4 yards to the UTEP25, PENALTY UTEP holding (FIRSTLEY,Silas) 15 yards to the UTEP14, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24END OF HALF6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:54
Luke Elsner punt blocked by James Gray blocked by James Gray N/A return for no gain to the NoTex 35
+11.4
TD · Q3 9:05
METZ,Ryan pass intercepted by SCOTT, Fred at the UTEP27, SCOTT, Fred return to the UTEP18 (BROOKS,Jerrod;JOHNSON,Kavika), PENALTY NT face mask (PRESTON, Ashton) 15 yards to the UTEP42, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.
+10.1
TD · Q3 3:11
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden Plinke
+8.3