Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 24 at Southern Miss 39

USM
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:57 · TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:41: Keon Howard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +3.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:40: Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 21 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +7.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:14: Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT BLOCKED) — USM win probability +11.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:19: Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — USM win probability +21.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:48: Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 1 at USM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:28USM 4th & 4 at LT 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:36LT 4th & 10 at LT 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:40LT 4th & 1 at LT 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:36LT 4th & 14 at USM 14, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−7.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:50LT 4th & 9 at USM 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−9.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:50USM 4th & 19 at USM 49, up 6
    Numbers favored punt by 3.5 ptsWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%−3.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:24LT 4th & 1 at USM 3, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−5.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−19.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:13USM 4th & 17 at USM 15, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−5.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:48USM 4th & 2 at LT 8, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%−1.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−9.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:48LT 4th & 9 at LT 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:01USM 4th & 5 at USM 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:19USM 4th & 1 at LT 1, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:41USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:08LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:40USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:14USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:19USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:19USM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:57LT Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1922% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
22.0%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
22.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
22.0%
Keon Howard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
22.0%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
22.0%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
22.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 7 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
22.0%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
22.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+18
22.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 18 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
22.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Ephraim KitchenSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
22.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 9 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
25.8%
Keon Howard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:3375% → 75%
Q1 10:41
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+40
25.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 40 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
24.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 4 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
25.2%
Ryan Higgins run for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 24 Ryan Higgins fumbled, recovered by LaTch Jarred CraftSimilar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+8
24.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 8 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
24.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+7
24.8%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
24.8%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
24.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q1 10:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
25.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.3%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:4027% → 30%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
27.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Keon Howard for 2 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
27.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 9 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
27.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 15 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
27.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 20Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
27.4%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+7
27.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 7 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
27.4%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
27.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
27.1%
Keon Howard run for no gain to the LaTch 4Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
30.3%
Stephen Brauchle 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5270% → 69%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
30.2%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 17Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
30.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
31.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+12
31.5%
Gerald Shouse punt for 50 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 12 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:0732% → 28%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
31.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 7 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-5
32.1%
George Payne run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+30
27.7%
Nick Mullens sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by LaTch Secdrick Cooper , return for 0 yards , return for 10 yds , return for 30 yds, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:3227% → 37%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
27.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+12
26.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 12 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+38
27.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 38 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
29.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaylon Ferguson) to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 5
OPP 38
-3
29.1%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the LaTch 31 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 8
OPP 41
+10
29.1%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
29.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+6
29.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 6 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
36.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 21 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
34.1%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
33.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
33.5%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-1
33.1%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
34.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
33.4%
Gerald Shouse punt for 47 yds, downed at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 3:1237% → 52%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+26
37.1%
Ito Smith run for 26 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
38.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 33 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
40.3%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+12
40.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 12 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
40.3%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
51.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:3852% → 55%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
48.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
47.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+27
46.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Kam McKnight for 27 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
44.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 17 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
44.9%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
44.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
46.2%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 14 Ryan Higgins fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
45.2%
Jonathan Barnes 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:1445% → 47%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
45.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Secdrick CooperSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+15
47.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 15 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:1053% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Ja'Boree PooleSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
48.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 15 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
45.1%
Jarred Craft run for 18 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
43.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 17 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to DeJuawn OliverSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
42.3%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the SoMis 32 Jarred Craft fumbled, forced by Dylan Bradley, recovered by LaTch Darrell BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+8
46.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 8 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+51
48.7%
Jonathan Barnes 40 yd FG MISSED SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Thigpen) to the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
52.3%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-1
52.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+40
51.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 40 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
55.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 13
OPP 45
-6
54.2%
Nick Mullens sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 19
OWN 49
0
52.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 19
OWN 49
-37
50.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 37 yards to the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2953% → 50%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
46.7%
Ryan Higgins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 11Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+4
46.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 4 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
48.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Kam McKnightSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+4
50.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (4 Yards) to the SoMis 3Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-8
49.6%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 5:5856% → 83%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
56.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
56.0%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+26
54.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 26 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
58.7%
Ito Smith run for 15 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
60.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 9 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-3
60.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
59.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 7 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
60.9%
Nick Mullens run for 8 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+9
60.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 9 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
60.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 10 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
82.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15INT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:1924% → 26%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
76.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Boston Scott for 4 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+11
75.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 11 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
74.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to DeJuawn Oliver for 4 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
75.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Boston ScottSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+11
75.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Boston Scott for 11 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
74.0%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Devonta FosterSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
74.3%
Ryan Higgins pass intercepted Cornell Armstrong return for no gain to the SoMis 41 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (11 Yards) to the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
83.7%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
83.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+1
83.1%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.7%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
83.5%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-7
82.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Jaylon Ferguson and Aaron Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
82.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 61 yds, downed at the LaTch 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 17%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
85.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 6 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
83.5%
Ryan Higgins pass intercepted Picasso Nelson Jr. return for 1 yd to the LaTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18FG
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:4892% → 97%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
92.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
92.4%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
92.4%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+4
92.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 4 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
96.5%
Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.3%
Ryan Higgins run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.6%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Conner SmithSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
93.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 24 , Allenzae Staggers returns for 3 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4997% → 98%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
97.0%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
97.1%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.1%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
97.3%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+1
97.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
98.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 57 yds, downed at the LaTch 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
97.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Boston ScottSimilar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+14
97.2%
Ryan Higgins pass intercepted Picasso Nelson Jr. return for 14 yds to the LaTch 17 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) to the LaTch 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1199% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
George Payne run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.9%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:220% → 2%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
99.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
99.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to DeJuawn Oliver for 14 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
99.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+15
99.8%
HIGGINS, Ryan pass incomplete to BONNETTE, R., PENALTY USM pass interference 15 yards to the USM2, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 5
OWN 49
-6
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:19
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+21.9
TD · Q2 3:14
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT BLOCKED)
+11.2
TD · Q2 9:40
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 21 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com