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FAU

Florida Atlantic 56 at Middle Tennessee 77

MTSU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:03 · Ruben Garnett run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:06: Dennis Andrews run for 11 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:41: I'Tavius Mathers run for 18 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:07: Jason Driskel run for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +8.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:13: Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +12.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:40: Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +7.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55FAU 4th & 18 at FAU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20FAU 4th & 18 at MTSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:39FAU 4th & 3 at MTSU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:37MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:07MTSU 4th & 2 at FAU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−1.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 2 at MTSU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:24MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:42FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:55MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:20MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:13MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:39MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:00FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:06MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:43FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:41MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 9:17MTSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 7:37FAU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 5:07FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 12:13FAU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 10:30MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 9:28MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 7:40FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%
    45% to convert
  17. Q4 5:52MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  18. Q4 5:40MTSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  19. Q4 0:03FAU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
83.5%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
83.5%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
83.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 57 yds, downed at the FlAtl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 2:3717% → 18%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.4%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+50
83.4%
Devin Singletary run for 50 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
83.3%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+7
83.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 7 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
83.3%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-2
83.3%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+5
83.3%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to TERRY, Nate, PENALTY MT offside 5 yards to the MT17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
83.3%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
81.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4782% → 82%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
81.9%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+28
81.8%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 28 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
82.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 2 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-5
82.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+49
82.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 49 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
82.0%
Jason Driskel sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 18 Jason Driskel fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Jason Driskel , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 19
OWN 18
-11
82.1%
Jason Driskel sacked by Chris Hale for a loss of 11 yards to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 30
OWN 7
+12
82.2%
Devin Singletary run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
82.3%
Dalton Schomp punt for 58 yds, downed at the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:2781% → 84%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
81.3%
Richie James run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+26
81.3%
Richie James run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
50
0
81.8%
Dennis Andrews pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
50
+4
81.7%
Dennis Andrews run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+24
81.7%
Richie James run for 24 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
82.0%
Richie James run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
83.5%
Richie James run for 16 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
82.3%
Devin Singletary run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
82.2%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to WOODS, Kalib, PENALTY FAU holding (DEBOER, Dillon) 10 yards to the FAU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+7
82.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 7 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+3
82.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 3 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-8
82.5%
Jason Driskel sacked by Chris Melton for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
83.0%
Dalton Schomp punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:5883% → 86%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
82.7%
Richie James run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+35
82.7%
Dennis Andrews pass complete to Richie James for 35 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
83.3%
Dennis Andrews run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
83.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+44
86.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 44 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1315% → 15%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.0%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
84.8%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
84.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
85.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:1086% → 91%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+43
86.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 43 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
86.7%
Ty Lee run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
86.7%
Ruben Garnett run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
91.4%
Richie James run for 11 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3910% → 15%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.4%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+27
90.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Dustin Bowens for 27 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
90.1%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+4
90.4%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+4
90.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+5
90.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
89.7%
Devin Singletary run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+6
89.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 6 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
89.7%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
84.6%
Devin Singletary run for 9 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5487% → 94%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
87.0%
Richie James pass complete to Ty Lee for 11 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
87.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
87.4%
Richie James run for no gain to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+38
86.9%
Dennis Andrews pass complete to Tyshawn Brown for 38 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
87.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+6
87.6%
Dennis Andrews run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
94.1%
Dennis Andrews run for 11 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:237% → 15%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 15 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.4%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
92.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
92.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 10 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
92.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
92.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+14
92.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 14 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
91.7%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
91.9%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
92.0%
Jason Driskel run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
91.7%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to TERRY, Nate, PENALTY MT pass interference (MOFFATT, J.) 12 yards to the MT2, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:0289% → 96%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
88.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+34
88.9%
I'Tavius Mathers pass complete to Richie James for 34 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
95.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 18 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:276% → 7%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
94.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 25 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
93.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 12 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.2%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Jeremy Cutrer return for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
96.0%
Dennis Andrews run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.4%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Devin SingletarySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.4%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-1
94.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
94.5%
Dalton Schomp punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:2896% → 99%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+22
95.7%
Richie James run for 22 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
95.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+7
96.0%
Richie James run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
96.0%
Dennis Andrews run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
96.0%
Richie James run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
96.0%
Ruben Garnett run for no gain to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+23
95.9%
Richie James pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 23 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
96.0%
Richie James run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+3
96.0%
Richie James run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
96.0%
Terelle West run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Dennis Andrews run for 5 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:401% → 4%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
99.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
99.3%
Devin Singletary run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.8%
Devin Singletary run for 30 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
96.7%
Richie James run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Richie James pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Henry Bussey III at the FlAtl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:134% → 13%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
96.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 11 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
96.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 14 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
96.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 28 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
96.0%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.4%
Jason Driskel run for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
91.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+21
91.3%
Richie James pass complete to CJ Windham for 21 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
92.2%
Richie James run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
91.9%
Richie James run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-2
91.3%
Ty Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:5910% → 21%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
90.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
90.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Gregory Howell Jr. for 10 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
89.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 5 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
89.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
89.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
91.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
91.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+11
91.3%
Jason Driskel run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
90.9%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
90.2%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
90.2%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
90.9%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4387% → 96%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.4%
Richie James run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
88.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
88.9%
Richie James pass complete to Ty Lee for 7 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
89.0%
Richie James run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+33
89.1%
Richie James run for 33 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
93.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 12 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
92.9%
Devin Singletary run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+58
92.6%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Michael Minter return for 58 yds to the FlAtl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.1%
Richie James run for 3 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:481% → 8%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.9%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
98.9%
Jason Driskel run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
98.9%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+48
98.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 48 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4896% → 99%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
95.8%
Richie James pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 14 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
96.1%
Richie James run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+48
96.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 48 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
96.3%
Richie James run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Dennis Andrews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
99.9%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted for a TD D.J. Sanders return for 20 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Daniel Parr pass intercepted Jeremy Cutrer return for no gain to the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.9%
Ruben Garnett run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-5
99.9%
Ruben Garnett run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+3
99.9%
Ruben Garnett run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlAtl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 31TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:040% → 1%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
99.9%
Daniel Parr pass complete to James Brunson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+13
100.0%
Devin Singletary run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
99.9%
Devin Singletary run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
Jay Warren run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Jay Warren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.6%
Ruben Garnett run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:13
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 5:07
Jason Driskel run for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q2 0:41
I'Tavius Mathers run for 18 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com