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USM

Southern Miss 23 at North Texas 29

UNT
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDSAFETYEnd of GameFG-11.3UNT 31.9%Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 20 · Q4 9:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:39 · Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior−3.5Home team on offense−10.6Score differential−4.3Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:25: Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +16.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:44: Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT MISSED) — USM win probability +11.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:07: George Payne run for 16 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +14.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:39: Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +11.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:34: Willy Ivery run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +32.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:23USM 4th & 12 at UNT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12UNT 4th & 8 at USM 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:16USM 4th & 1 at USM 19, down 10
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 12 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:42UNT 4th & 10 at USM 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−7.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27UNT 4th & 11 at USM 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:00USM 4th & 14 at USM 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:46UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:44UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:23USM 4th & 5 at UNT 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−1.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 9 at UNT 25, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−13.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:42UNT 4th & 21 at UNT 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−5.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:12USM 4th & 14 at USM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−5.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:39USM 4th & 8 at UNT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−21.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:38UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−2.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:43UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 37, up 6
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:16UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:22UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:25USM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:44USM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:07USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:34UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
28.9%
Sam Rice run for no gain to the NoTex 30 Sam Rice fumbled,Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
28.9%
Andrew Tucker run for 6 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
28.9%
Alec Morris pass intercepted Devonta Foster return for 4 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2MISSED FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 3:0471% → 69%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
29.5%
Keon Howard run for 10 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
29.4%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-3
29.4%
George Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 12
OPP 26
-5
29.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Wil Freeman) to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 17
OPP 31
+5
29.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
31.0%
Stephen Brauchle 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:1131% → 33%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
31.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
31.1%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Kenny Buyers, broken up by Dylan BradleySimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+9
31.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Elijah McIntyre for 9 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
31.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding (Cornell Armstrong) to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
31.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 49 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
32.1%
Andrew Tucker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
32.1%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
31.9%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Andrew TuckerSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
33.3%
Trevor Moore 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
33.0%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+17
32.9%
Keon Howard run for 17 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
32.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
32.6%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Nate Brooks return for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0735% → 41%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
34.5%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
34.5%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+32
34.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 32 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
35.1%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
35.1%
Willy Ivery run for 9 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
35.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willy Ivery for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
41.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 17 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
40.9%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
41.0%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
41.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
41.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 36 yds, downed at the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
52.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 55 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:2252% → 48%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
48.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 15 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
48.1%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
47.5%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
50.8%
Keon Howard sacked by Joshua Wheeler for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+2
52.0%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
50
0
51.9%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
50
0
52.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds, downed at the NoTex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:5256% → 69%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
55.9%
Andrew Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+5
55.9%
Alec Morris run for 5 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+19
55.4%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 19 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
56.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Xavier Thigpen) to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
57.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 35 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
57.9%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Kenny BuyersSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
57.7%
Alec Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
57.4%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
68.6%
Trevor Moore 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
67.6%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+19
67.6%
Keon Howard run for 19 yds to the NoTex 43 Keon Howard fumbled, forced by Nate Brooks, recovered by NoTex Fred ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
72.1%
Willy Ivery run for 16 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
72.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Anthony Wyche for 4 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
72.3%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-5
71.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Sam Rice) to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
71.6%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
70.8%
Eric Keena punt for 33 yds, downed at the SoMis 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
74.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Allenzae Staggers) to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+3
74.5%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-1
74.7%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+15
74.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (James Gray) to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
73.7%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.9%
Keon Howard sacked by Malik Dilonga for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 23 Keon Howard fumbled, recovered by SoMis Julian Allen , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 21
OWN 23
-9
74.1%
Keon Howard sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 30
OWN 14
+16
74.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 16 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
74.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds , Turner Smiley returns for no gain to the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal formation (Trey Keenan) to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
82.9%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
82.8%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
82.6%
Alec Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
81.4%
Eric Keena punt for 29 yds, downed at the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:5719% → 38%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+47
80.7%
Allenzae Staggers pass complete to Ito Smith for 47 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
78.6%
Keon Howard run for 5 yds to the NoTex 1 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.4%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
70.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1634% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
65.6%
Ito Smith run for 69 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
62.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
62.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kishawn McClain) to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
57.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+6
56.9%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+5
56.6%
Anthony Wyche run for 5 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
56.0%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 9
OWN 31
-5
54.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
54.3%
Eric Keena punt for 40 yds, downed at the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:0344% → 62%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
56.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal motion (Wil Freeman) to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+27
57.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Julian Allen for 27 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
53.8%
George Payne run for 9 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
51.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+7
53.5%
George Payne run for 7 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
51.7%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
52.3%
George Payne run for 12 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
51.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
37.6%
George Payne run for 16 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:3748% → 55%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
47.6%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+35
48.3%
Willy Ivery run for 35 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
51.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
50.1%
Willy Ivery run for 13 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
51.2%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-5
51.2%
Alec Morris sacked by Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+10
47.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding (Kelsey Douglas) to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
54.9%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 21 Willy Ivery fumbled, forced by Xavier Thigpen, recovered by SoMis Paxton SchrimsherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 58 yds · 6:2355% → 54%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
44.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
44.9%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+17
45.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 17 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
41.5%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
40.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
41.1%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
40.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
41.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+6
42.7%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+12
42.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 12 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
39.1%
Keon Howard sacked by Calvin Minor and Khairi Muhammad for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+5
40.9%
Keon Howard run for 5 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
42.5%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+4
45.8%
Tyler Sarrazin run for 4 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
52.1%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 15Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 16
OWN 15
-5
51.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (T.J. Henson) to the NoTex 10Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 21
OWN 10
0
51.7%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 21
OWN 10
0
49.9%
Alec Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 21
OWN 10
0
49.0%
Eric Keena punt for 43 yds, downed at the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0057% → 50%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
43.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-4
43.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
47.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
49.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 44 yds , Turner Smiley returns for no gain to the NoTex 12 Turner Smiley fumbled, forced by D'Nerius Antoine, recovered by SoMis Cody BlockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2559% → 68%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-8
41.2%
Jordan Mitchell run for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+10
42.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Jareid Combs) to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
41.2%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
41.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
43.2%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
31.9%
Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0539% → 73%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
39.4%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 11 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
42.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 13 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
44.2%
Alec Morris pass complete to Elijah McIntyre for 13 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
47.2%
Willy Ivery run for 17 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
47.2%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Elijah McIntyreSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
79.2%
Willy Ivery run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
Q4 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
73.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0031% → 34%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
69.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 34 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
63.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+15
65.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Chad Davis) to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
60.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 20
OPP 38
0
65.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+13
66.0%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Khairi Muhammad return for 13 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
81.4%
Willy Ivery run for 4 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
82.1%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
80.5%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
79.3%
Eric Keena punt for 54 yds, downed at the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27SF
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:4322% → 16%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
77.9%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
78.1%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
79.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 9
OWN 5
-5
86.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
+11
83.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 60 yds , Anthony Wyche returns for 11 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2591% → 94%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
90.9%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
90.8%
Willy Ivery run for 5 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-1
94.9%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
94.2%
Eric Keena punt for 44 yds, downed at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
89.9%
Keon Howard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+35
90.0%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Nate Brooks return for 40 yds to the NORTHTEXAS 38 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Devin Farrior) to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 5
OPP 10
-5
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:34
Willy Ivery run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+32
TD · Q2 0:25
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q3 9:07
George Payne run for 16 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com