2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:13 · Chase Litton sacked by Fermin Silva for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:38: Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +11.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:59: Austin Taylor 29 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +11.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- MISSED FG · Q4 8:55: Amoreto Curraj 20 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Olin Cushion III Isaiah Brown return for no gain to the FlaIn 10 — FIU win probability +7.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:04: Anthony Jones run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +8.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:53: Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 24 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 13:34MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q2 15:00FIU 4th & 3 at MRSH 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.3%52% to convertField goal48.1%−0.270% to makePunt46.1%−2.2average punt
- Q2 15:00FIU 4th & 1 at MRSH 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.4%71% to convertField goal47.6%−0.889% to makePunt45.3%−3.1average punt
- Q2 9:21FIU 4th & 23 at MRSH 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snapGo for it46.8%−1.47% to convertField goalTheir call48.3%56% to makePunt47.5%−0.7average punt
- Q2 9:21MRSH 4th & 5 at FIU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.9%average punt
- Q2 7:43FIU 4th & 20 at FIU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snapGo for it45.5%−3.09% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.5%average punt
- Q2 4:23MRSH 4th & 6 at FIU 47, tiedClose callPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it53.2%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.9%−0.3average punt
- Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 21 at FIU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it34.9%−3.29% to convertField goal36.0%−2.125% to makePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q3 0:59FIU 4th & 3 at MRSH 12, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.8%50% to convertField goalTheir call77.7%−1.286% to makePunt67.6%−11.3average punt
- Q4 8:55MRSH 4th & 3 at FIU 3, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snapGo for it17.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%−3.293% to makePunt7.3%−9.8average punt
- Q4 2:13MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 34, down 17Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:34FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.6%97% to makeGo for two44.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:40MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.2%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.9%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:04FIU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:53MRSH Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.1%97% to makeGo for two6.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 2:13FIU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1TD5 plays · 82 yds · 1:2642% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+48
41.6%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 48 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
41.6%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Darrius Scott for 7 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+13
41.6%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Darrius Scott for 13 yds to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
FIUDrive 3INT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
43.7%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Shug Oyegunle for 17 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-3
43.9%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Frankie Hernandez for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
43.7%
Maurice Alexander pass intercepted Rodney Allen return for 15 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4INT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
FIUDrive 5INT3 plays · 26 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
MRSHDrive 6TD8 plays · 71 yds · 3:5552% → 57%
Q1 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+19
48.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 19 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
47.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 18 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
47.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 12 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
43.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 17 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7DOWNS11 plays · 66 yds · 1:4046% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
45.9%
Chase Litton pass intercepted Niko Gonzalez return for no gain to the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 17 yds · 3:2449% → 47%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
49.0%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Thomas Owens for 6 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-15
48.3%
ALEXANDER, M. pass complete to GARDNER, Alex for 3 yards to the MAR12 (ALLEN, Rodney), PENALTY FIU pass interference (SCOTT, Darrius) 15 yards to the MAR30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
47.8%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Shawn Abrams for 11 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-5
48.2%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (Dieugot Joseph) to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-6
46.8%
Christian Alexander sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 20
OWN 21
+11
45.9%
Stone Wilson punt for 41 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 11 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
42.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 4 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
42.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Emanuel Byrd, broken up by Niko GonzalezSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
44.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the FlaIn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13TD9 plays · 82 yds · 2:5549% → 65%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
51.6%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 27 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+12
51.3%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Austin Maloney for 12 yds to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.2%
Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14END OF HALF9 plays · 36 yds · 0:3342% → 35%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
58.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 9 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
57.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 5 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
57.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for no gain to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-9
60.1%
Chase Litton sacked by Fermin Silva for a loss of 9 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+31
65.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 31 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT13 plays · 32 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
60.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 6 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+12
57.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 12 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-10
56.9%
PITTMAN, Tony rush for loss of 2 yards to the FIU34 (BROWN, Andrew), PENALTY MAR holding (ADDISON, AJ) 10 yards to the FIU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 42
-3
61.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OPP 45
0
62.6%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the FlaIn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16FG15 plays · 71 yds · 7:5169% → 80%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
68.6%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 15 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+12
68.0%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 12 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
71.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Darrius Scott for 5 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+6
70.6%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Alex Gardner for 6 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+11
69.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Anthony Jones for 11 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17MISSED FG17 plays · 77 yds · 7:0421% → 15%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
78.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 15 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
79.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh Knight, broken up by Davison ColimonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
80.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+10
77.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 10 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-6
75.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 4 yds to the FlaIn 27 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Hunt) to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+15
77.6%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete, QB hurry by GLANTON, Josh, PENALTY FIU personal foul (GLANTON, Josh) 15 yards to the FIU22, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
76.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 10 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
85.5%
Amoreto Curraj 20 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Olin Cushion III Isaiah Brown return for no gain to the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18TD7 plays · 90 yds · 2:5187% → 97%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+29
86.8%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 29 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
88.0%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Shug Oyegunle for 4 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
88.5%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 10 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Frankie Hernandez) to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD9 plays · 73 yds · 2:113% → 11%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
96.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 5 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+6
96.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 6 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
96.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 25 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
96.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 1 yd to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+12
96.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 12 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
88.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 24 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20TD8 plays · 46 yds · 1:4093% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21END OF GAME9 plays · 34 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 12 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 5 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
98.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (Sandley Jean-Felix) to the Marsh 37Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
98.3%
Chase Litton sacked by Leonard Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin Hunt, broken up by Shakur CooperSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+13
98.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 13 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
98.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 13 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
98.0%
Chase Litton sacked by Fermin Silva for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:38
Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
+11.6
FG · Q3 0:59
Austin Taylor 29 yd FG GOOD
+11
TD · Q4 6:04
Anthony Jones run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
+8.6