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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 17 at Marshall 42

MRSH
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:31 · Kaare Vedvik punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior−11.8Home team on offense+5.0Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:17: Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 25 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:56: I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:13: Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 28 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +16.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:23: Anthony Anderson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +16.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:03: Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 9 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +12.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:36MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37MRSH 4th & 5 at MTSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33MTSU 4th & 5 at MRSH 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:17MTSU 4th & 2 at MRSH 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−1.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:50MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 20, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:29MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 1 at MTSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−3.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:13MTSU 4th & 7 at MRSH 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:31MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:24MRSH 4th & 7 at MTSU 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−2.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−4.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:24MRSH 4th & 7 at MTSU 22, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:24MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 16, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:55MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 43, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:15MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 27, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:36MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:25MTSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:17MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:56MTSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:13MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:23MRSH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:03MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:24MRSH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
21.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 17 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
21.9%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
21.9%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+26
21.9%
John Urzua pass intercepted Terry Richardson return for 26 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:1223% → 24%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
22.6%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+25
22.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 25 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
22.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+7
22.7%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to YURACHEK, Ryan, PENALTY MT pass interference (RANDOLPH, D.) 7 yards to the MT3, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.0%
Hyleck Foster run for 3 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
23.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 10 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.7%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
23.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-8
23.7%
John Urzua sacked by Frankie Hernandez for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
23.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
25.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 13 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
25.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
25.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
25.6%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to CLARK, Michael, PENALTY MT offside (RHODES, Steven) 5 yards to the MT42, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
25.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
25.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh KnightSimilar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
25.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh KnightSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-3
25.5%
Kaare Vedvik run for a loss of 13 yards to the Marsh 47 Kaare Vedvik fumbled, recovered by Marsh Kaare Vedvik , return for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:5073% → 73%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
26.6%
Richie James run for 21 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
26.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+4
26.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 4 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
26.6%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
27.0%
Canon Rooker 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
27.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 11 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
27.1%
Tony Pittman run for 10 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
27.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
27.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin Hunt, broken up by Michael MinterSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+9
26.8%
Hyleck Foster run for 9 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
27.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:1572% → 74%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+48
28.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 48 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
27.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
27.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 9 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
27.2%
MATHERS, I. rush for 3 yards to the MAR16 (HERNANDEZ, F.), PENALTY MT holding (STEPHENS, D.) 10 yards to the MAR29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+7
27.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 7 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+5
27.3%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 5 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+15
27.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 15 yds to the Marsh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
27.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 7Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
26.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 7 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 6:0828% → 38%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
27.7%
Hyleck Foster run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+7
27.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 7 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
27.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 10 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
28.1%
Hyleck Foster run for 6 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
29.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh KnightSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
28.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 5 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
29.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 10 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
29.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 9 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
29.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Emanuel Byrd, broken up by Darryl RandolphSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
29.3%
Tony Pittman run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
29.9%
Hyleck Foster run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
30.0%
Hyleck Foster run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
30.0%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to FOSTER, Hyleck, QB hurry by FELTON, Raynard, PENALTY MAR holding (BROWN, Levi) 10 yards to the MT33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+10
29.7%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to KNIGHT, Josh, QB hurry by HARGES, Myles, PENALTY MT holding (SANDERS, DJ) 10 yards to the MT23, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
30.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+25
37.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 25 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:2165% → 70%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
35.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+24
35.8%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 9 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.1%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
33.2%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 4 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
33.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+3
34.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 3 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
33.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
32.2%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+17
37.9%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 17 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
36.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+9
36.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
36.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 6Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
36.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
30.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 3 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
30.6%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
29.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
29.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 41 yds, downed at the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 68%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.1%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
29.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
30.1%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+2
31.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 2 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 57 yds · 0:1332% → 32%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
31.7%
Tony Pittman run for 16 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
33.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+30
32.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 30 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4733% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
32.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
33.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+15
33.8%
Tony Pittman run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
35.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
36.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
36.0%
Anthony Anderson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
35.8%
Tony Pittman run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
34.5%
Tony Pittman run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
51.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 28 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
45.6%
Ty Lee run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
45.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
44.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 20 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
42.4%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 1 yd to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-3
42.4%
John Urzua sacked by Joe Massaquoi and Ryan Bee for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 43Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+5
44.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 5 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
45.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
53.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Terry RichardsonSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
53.0%
Tony Pittman run for 3 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+15
51.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 15 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
53.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 6 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
55.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh Knight, broken up by D.J. SandersSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+1
54.3%
Tony Pittman run for 1 yd to the Marsh 37Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
52.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0047% → 52%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
53.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+10
53.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 10 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
52.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 27 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
48.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 41 I'Tavius Mathers fumbled, recovered by Marsh Malik ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
60.4%
Anthony Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+4
58.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
58.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 10 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
61.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
61.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
60.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
57.9%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 30 yds , Richie James returns for no gain to the MTnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:2742% → 38%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
57.6%
John Urzua sacked by Damien Dozier for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 7
0
59.0%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 7
0
60.7%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 7
+6
61.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 35 , Hyleck Foster returns for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:1767% → 83%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
66.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+11
66.6%
Anthony Anderson run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.4%
Anthony Anderson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
80.2%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 7 yds I'Tavius Mathers fumbled, forced by Corey Neely, recovered by Marsh Frankie HernandezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:0084% → 96%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
83.7%
Tony Pittman run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
83.5%
Tony Pittman run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
95.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 9 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
94.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 4 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
94.5%
John Urzua pass intercepted Corey Neely return for no gain to the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 5:0396% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
95.9%
Anthony Anderson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
95.9%
Anthony Anderson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
95.9%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
95.9%
Anthony Anderson run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-9
96.0%
Tony Pittman run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (Sandley Jean-Felix) to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 19
OPP 34
0
95.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael Clark, broken up by Jeremy CutrerSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 19
OPP 34
+8
95.9%
Tony Pittman run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+4
95.8%
Tony Pittman run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+22
99.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 22 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.0%
Ruben Garnett run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
99.1%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Dennis Andrews, broken up by Damien DozierSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+1
99.1%
Ruben Garnett run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
99.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.7%
Tony Pittman run for 2 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-1
99.7%
Tony Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.3%
Ruben Garnett run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 19 Ruben Garnett fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Ruben GarnettSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
99.3%
Ruben Garnett run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Ruben Garnett run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:23
Anthony Anderson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q3 11:13
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 28 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q4 12:03
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 9 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com