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UTSA

UTSA 35 at Louisiana Tech 63

LT
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaTch 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+21.1Home team on offense+18.6Score differential+12.2Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:28: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:33: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 68 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:57: Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +5.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:32: Kirk Johnson pass complete to Marquez McNair for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +4.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:23: Daniel Portillo kickoff for 10 yds , Jarred Craft return for 45 yds for a TD, (Trent Taylor KICK) — LT win probability +5.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:05LT 4th & 2 at LT 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:20UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:28UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33UTSA 4th & 2 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:51UTSA 4th & 7 at LT 27, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:00UTSA 4th & 4 at LT 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:00UTSA 4th & 3 at LT 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:16LT 4th & 17 at LT 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:48UTSA 4th & 4 at LT 4, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:05LT 4th & 9 at UTSA 27, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:05LT 4th & 29 at LT 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:55UTSA 4th & 7 at LT 33, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 14:44LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:05UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:12LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:28LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:33LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:54LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:57UTSA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:00LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:48UTSA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:01LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:05UTSA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:32UTSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:23LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:05LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 2TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 6:3913% → 15%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
87.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-2
87.4%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 13Similar
Q1 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+18
87.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 18 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
87.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 12 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
87.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+22
87.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 22 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
87.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
87.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 14:44
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
87.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
87.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
86.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
86.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 12 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
85.6%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
85.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+4
85.6%
Ryan Higgins run for 4 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
85.6%
Gerald Shouse punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+7
85.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 7 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:1085% → 87%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
84.9%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+8
85.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
85.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Kam McKnight for 30 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (8 Yards) to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
85.4%
HIGGINS, Ryan pass incomplete to TAYLOR, Trent, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Bailey) 5 yards to the UTSA2, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.4%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -23 yds · 1:5914% → 13%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-13
85.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36 TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TexSA 21Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 23
OWN 21
-4
86.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 27
OWN 17
-6
86.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Elliot Blankenship for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 11Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 33
OWN 11
+11
86.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 50 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 11 yds to the LaTch 22 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3387% → 90%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
86.6%
Carlos Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+17
86.5%
Boston Scott run for 17 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
86.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Boston Scott for 14 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
86.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+12
86.8%
Boston Scott run for 12 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
86.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 5 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
90.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
88.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 20 Dalton Sturm fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+6
89.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 6 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
89.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:4090% → 94%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
89.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 4 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+68
94.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 68 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10DOWNS
16 plays · 35 yds · 4:427% → 8%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aron Taylor for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
93.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
93.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
93.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
93.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
93.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 2
50
+9
93.4%
Yannis Routsas pass complete to Darryl Godfrey for 9 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
93.1%
Brady Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
93.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+11
93.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 11 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
92.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
92.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
93.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 7
OPP 27
-7
91.9%
Yannis Routsas pass complete to Victor Falcon for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:5196% → 99%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
95.6%
HIGGINS, Ryan pass incomplete to TAYLOR, Trent, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Moore) 15 yards to the LATECH49, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
95.7%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
95.7%
Ryan Higgins run for 10 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
95.7%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-15
95.8%
SCOTT, Boston rush for 2 yards to the UTSA24 (Egwuagu), PENALTY LATECH personal foul (HENDERSON, C.) 15 yards to the UTSA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+27
95.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Boston Scott for 13 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Marcus Davenport) to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
95.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.6%
Carlos Henderson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 1:571% → 8%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
98.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-5
98.9%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 48Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+35
99.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 20 yds to the LATECH 32 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Secdrick Cooper) to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
98.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 9 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
98.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
98.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the LaTch 2Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete, broken up by Ben KaneSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.8%
Jarred Craft run for 14 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.0%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete, broken up by Carl Austin IIISimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
97.0%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.4%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
95.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
95.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5296% → 99%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.4%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+23
96.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 23 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+30
96.5%
Boston Scott run for 30 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
96.5%
HIGGINS, Ryan pass intercepted by McGhee at the UTSA2, McGhee return to the LATECH7 (HIGGINS, Ryan), PENALTY UTSA offside defense 5 yards to the UTSA5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.5%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the TexSA 5Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Trent Taylor 5 Yd pass from Ryan Higgins (Jonathan Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 44 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+10
99.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 10 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
99.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
99.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 11 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
99.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
99.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNair, broken up by Darryl LewisSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+5
99.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aron Taylor for 5 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.2%
Isaiah Clay run for 1 yd to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
99.2%
Isaiah Clay run for 1 yd to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
99.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 5 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
98.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete, broken up by Xavier WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
99.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Marlon Watts for 15 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.7%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 14
OWN 45
-3
99.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 17
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Marlon WattsSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:140% → 2%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
99.7%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 11 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
99.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 46 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
99.6%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Cyril Noland-LewisSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+9
99.7%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Clay for 9 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.6%
Isaiah Clay run for no gain to the LaTch 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.7%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Aron TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.2%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:4799% → 100%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
98.9%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
98.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to N/A for 3 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
98.9%
Boston Scott run for 16 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.0%
Ryan Higgins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
50
+50
99.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Marlon Watts for 50 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 16 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-11
99.9%
Kirk Johnson sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 21
OWN 30
-3
99.9%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Jarveon Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 24
OWN 27
-7
99.9%
Kirk Johnson sacked by Darryl Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 31
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 51 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 3 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21MISSED FG TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:00100% → 99%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
99.9%
CRAFT, Jarred rush for no gain to the LATECH32 (Godfrey), PENALTY LATECH holding (HOGAN, Frasier) 10 yards to the LATECH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+35
99.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 35 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.9%
HIGGINS, Ryan pass incomplete to TAYLOR, Trent, PENALTY UTSA personal foul (Tauaefa) 15 yards to the UTSA28, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Ryan Higgins run for no gain to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+82
99.4%
Michael Egwuagu 82 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Victor Falcon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-15
99.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (O'Shea Dugas) to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 25
OWN 27
0
99.4%
J'mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 25
OWN 27
-4
99.4%
J'mar Smith sacked by Anthony Hickey for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 29
OWN 23
+36
99.2%
Gerald Shouse punt for 49 yds , Matt Guidry returns for 36 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:231% → 6%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
99.2%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
99.2%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+7
99.3%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 7 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+29
99.2%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 29 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.1%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.1%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.3%
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Marquez McNair for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Kirk Johnson pass incomplete to Jarveon Williams, broken up by Lloyd GroganSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Kirk Johnson pass intercepted Kam McKnight return for no gain to the TexSA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.7%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-1
99.7%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+26
99.6%
J'mar Smith run for 26 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.6%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
J'mar Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:57
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q4 3:23
Daniel Portillo kickoff for 10 yds , Jarred Craft return for 45 yds for a TD, (Trent Taylor KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q4 3:32
Kirk Johnson pass complete to Marquez McNair for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com