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UTSA

UTSA 45 at Middle Tennessee 25

MTSU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:57 · Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+10.0Home team on offense−48.2Score differential−41.7Garbage-time factor−15.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:13: Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +16.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:27: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +15.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:37: John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 53 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:55: Jarveon Williams run for 22 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +21.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:52: Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:47UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:15MTSU 4th & 23 at MTSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 7 at UTSA 30, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08UTSA 4th & 1 at MTSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:51UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:55MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−5.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:50UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 39, up 25
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:24MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 28, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:57UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 44, up 25
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:10UTSA 4th & 10 at MTSU 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:53MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 35, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:49UTSA 4th & 1 at MTSU 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:12UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:47MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:14UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:13UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:27UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:37MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:55UTSA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:52UTSA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:11MTSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:4810% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
90.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
90.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 5 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
90.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
90.1%
Matt Guidry run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
90.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
90.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
90.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aron Taylor for 14 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
90.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
90.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+6
90.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2588% → 89%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+48
87.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 48 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
88.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
88.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 16 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
88.1%
Sturm rush for 10 yards to the UTSA41, out-of-bounds (MELTON, Chris), QB hurry by MINTER, Mike, PENALTY UTSA IM 5 yards to the UTSA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
88.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
88.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 1 yd to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
88.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-6
87.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 16
OWN 15
-7
87.2%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Eric Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
87.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Aron Taylor at the MTnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:3014% → 18%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
86.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
86.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
86.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
86.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+26
82.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 26 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:1483% → 82%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
83.5%
Brent Stockstill run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
83.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
83.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
83.8%
Brent Stockstill run for 5 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+15
84.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 15 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
83.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-7
83.1%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Baylen Baker for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+10
81.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
82.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:5520% → 37%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
79.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
50
+3
79.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
79.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
79.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.9%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
78.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
79.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
79.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
78.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
78.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
79.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
78.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aron TaylorSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
78.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+8
79.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
65.6%
John Urzua pass intercepted Jordan Moore return for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:5938% → 62%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Jeremy CutrerSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
62.2%
Matt Guidry run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
62.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 13 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
62.1%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+2
62.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+10
62.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 10 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
62.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
62.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 16 Jalen Rhodes fumbled, recovered by TexSA Jalen Rhodes TEXASSAN Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
38.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 1:2744% → 48%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
44.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 13 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
46.4%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 5 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+13
46.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyshawn Brown for 13 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.6%
URZUA, John pass complete to BROWN, Tyshawn for 26 yards to the UTSA14 (Tauaefa), QB hurry by Banks, PENALTY MT illegal touching 0 yards to the UTSA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.6%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Austin JupeSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
47.3%
URZUA, John pass incomplete to JAMES, Richie (McGhee), PENALTY UTSA personal foul (McGhee) 15 yards to the UTSA25, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
48.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 12 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+30
48.3%
Canon Rooker 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
45.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
45.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
46.7%
John Urzua pass intercepted Devron Davis return for no gain to the TexSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
39.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
39.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
39.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+3
41.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 41 yds , Richie James returns for 3 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1640% → 56%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
40.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
41.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
40.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 13 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+53
56.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 53 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:4248% → 69%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
52.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 17 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
30.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 22 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
36.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 22 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
38.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 10 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.4%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
39.0%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
38.4%
John Urzua pass intercepted Michael Egwuagu return for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
30.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+13
29.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
29.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
28.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
29.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
28.6%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Charvarius Ward return for 14 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
29.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
30.0%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-8
31.1%
John Urzua sacked by Team for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 14 John Urzua fumbled, recovered by TexSA La'Kel Bass , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
20.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jalen Rhodes, broken up by Charvarius WardSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
20.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
20.2%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted, touchback. Michael Minter return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
25.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-7
25.2%
John Urzua sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
25.0%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie James, broken up by Josiah TauaefaSimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
25.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aron Taylor at the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1083% → 99%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
17.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
17.0%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
16.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+11
16.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
10.7%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
10.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside (Raynard Felton) to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Trevor StevensSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
1.4%
John Urzua sacked by La'Kel Bass for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+5
1.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
1.2%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
1.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aron Taylor at the TexSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
0.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
1.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+12
1.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 12 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+6
1.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 22 , Richie James returns for 6 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
0.9%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 4 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
0.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
0.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
0.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aron Taylor at the TexSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
0.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-2
0.7%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 44Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
0.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
0.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:201% → 9%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
0.8%
John Urzua pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 8 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+16
0.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
0.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+25
1.0%
Ty Lee run for 25 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
1.1%
Terelle West run for 10 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
1.1%
Terelle West run for 11 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
1.2%
Terelle West run for 3 yds to the TexSA 2Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.3%
John Urzua run for 1 yd to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.5%
Terelle West run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Urzua pass to CJ Windham for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:0196% → 99%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
4.4%
Isaiah Clay run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+10
4.4%
Isaiah Clay run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
4.5%
Isaiah Clay run for no gain to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
4.5%
Isaiah Clay run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-4
4.5%
Isaiah Clay run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
1.1%
Victor Falcon 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
1.3%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
1.3%
John Urzua pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 3 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
1.3%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
0.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
0.7%
Isaiah Clay run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
0.7%
Isaiah Clay run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
0.7%
Brett Winnegan run for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
0.7%
Kirk Johnson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
0.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:55
Jarveon Williams run for 22 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-21.7
TD · Q2 6:13
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-16.2
TD · Q2 1:27
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com