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LT

Louisiana Tech 45 at North Texas 24

UNT
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:32 · Gerald Shouse punt for 34 yds, downed at the NoTex 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior−11.3Home team on offense−44.4Score differential−25.8Garbage-time factor−8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:18: Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 32 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +5.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:14: Jarred Craft run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Willy Ivery run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +7.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:13: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +7.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:13: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +5.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 13:05UNT 4th & 9 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:10UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:14LT 4th & 10 at UNT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:00LT 4th & 10 at UNT 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:34UNT 4th & 11 at LT 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:13UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:13UNT 4th & 24 at UNT 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:32LT 4th & 10 at UNT 36, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:01UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:47LT 4th & 8 at UNT 39, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:51UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 10, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:05LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:25UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:39LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:18UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:10LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:14LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:28UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:13LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:13LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:5592% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
8.5%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+12
8.5%
Jarred Craft run for 12 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
8.5%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
8.5%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+52
8.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 52 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
9.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 14 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
9.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
50
-8
9.1%
Mason Fine sacked by Jordan Bradford and Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+13
9.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 13 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 4
OPP 45
-5
9.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 9
50
+14
9.0%
Eric Keena punt for 40 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 14 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
9.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 5 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
9.8%
Ryan Higgins pass intercepted Ashton Preston return for 1 yd to the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:4110% → 14%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 2 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
10.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
10.9%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
10.9%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the LaTch 9Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+6
10.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the LaTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
10.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 6Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
10.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 5 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4687% → 89%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.9%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
12.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
13.1%
Ryan Higgins run for 8 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Dee Baulkman) to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
12.4%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 6
50
0
12.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 6
50
+10
12.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Nate Brooks) to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
12.4%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+1
12.2%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
13.4%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+24
11.5%
Carlos Henderson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:2112% → 19%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
12.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 6 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
12.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 7 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
12.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
12.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 7 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
12.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+7
13.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 7 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
13.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
13.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
18.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 32 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0883% → 87%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
16.6%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
16.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 8 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+50
16.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Kam McKnight for 50 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
15.1%
Jarred Craft run for 12 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
15.8%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 10Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
12.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 10 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
14.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
14.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 2 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
13.9%
Eric Keena punt for 52 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 1 yd to the LaTch 35 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:0187% → 91%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
13.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Ashton Preston) to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
12.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 24 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
12.6%
Ryan Higgins run for 10 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Kishawn McClain) to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
12.4%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
12.4%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
12.6%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.3%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4610% → 19%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
10.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
11.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 28 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
11.5%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
11.4%
Willy Ivery run for 4 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+7
11.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 7 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
11.5%
Mason Fine run for 15 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
11.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.7%
Willy Ivery run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 1:1485% → 87%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Kam McKnightSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
15.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 11 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
14.0%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
13.6%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Chad DavisSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
13.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chad Davis) to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
12.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 7 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
12.7%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
13.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, IS (5 Yards) to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
13.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
13.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Alfred SmithSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
13.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
13.3%
Jonathan Barnes 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
13.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.6%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Prince Sam return for no gain to the NoTex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4887% → 86%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
13.2%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+7
13.2%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.2%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the NoTex 10Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q3 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.6%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
14.2%
Jonathan Barnes 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:2614% → 18%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+24
13.8%
Willy Ivery run for 9 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Harris) to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
14.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 7 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
15.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
15.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 11 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
16.1%
Willy Ivery run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-5
16.1%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 34Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
14.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kenny Buyers, broken up by Xavier WoodsSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+51
18.0%
Trevor Moore 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2183% → 92%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
17.2%
Jarred Craft run for 17 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
15.8%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+14
15.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 14 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
15.5%
Ryan Higgins run for 31 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
7.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
9.8%
Mason Fine sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+8
9.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 8 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Eric Keena punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 6:3092% → 98%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
8.4%
Carlos Henderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+8
8.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
8.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
7.7%
Ryan Higgins run for 4 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+11
7.7%
Boston Scott run for 11 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
7.7%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Malik Dilonga for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+12
7.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 12 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+6
7.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 6 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
7.4%
Jarred Craft run for 12 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
6.6%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
1.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
2.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+9
2.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 9 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
2.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Xavier Woods for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+1
2.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 1 yd to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 16
OWN 24
-8
2.5%
Mason Fine sacked by Xavier Woods for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 24
OWN 16
0
2.5%
Eric Keena punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
1.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 4 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Nate Brooks) to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
1.4%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
1.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-7
1.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 3 yds to the NoTex 26 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
1.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
1.6%
Gerald Shouse punt for 34 yds, downed at the NoTex 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
1.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 11
0
1.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian Goree, broken up by Cedric JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+10
1.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 10 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
1.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 19 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
2.0%
Mason Fine sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
1.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kenny BuyersSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+5
1.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 5 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
1.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.8%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
0.8%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
0.8%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-5
0.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
0.8%
Gerald Shouse punt for 38 yds, downed at the NoTex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
0.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+9
0.9%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
1.0%
Eric Keena punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
0.5%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
0.5%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-1
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:13
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q2 1:28
Willy Ivery run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 12:18
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 32 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com