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CLT

Charlotte 38 at Southern Miss 27

USM
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:00 · Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:46: Chris Montgomery run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK) — CLT win probability +13.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:35: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK) — CLT win probability +16.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:29: Blake Brewer 22 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +14.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:11: Ito Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — USM win probability +7.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:56: Parker Adamson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +7.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 12 at CLT 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33USM 4th & 5 at USM 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:35CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 15, up 7
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:45CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:29USM 4th & 8 at USM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:20CLT 4th & 20 at CLT 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:34USM 4th & 18 at CLT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:29CLT 4th & 2 at USM 4, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−12.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:29USM 4th & 9 at USM 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:25CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:18USM 4th & 11 at USM 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:55CLT 4th & 1 at USM 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−3.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:55CLT 4th & 13 at USM 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:48USM 4th & 3 at USM 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:48USM 4th & 2 at USM 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:48USM 4th & 10 at CLT 38, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:00CLT 4th & 6 at USM 36, up 11
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.4
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:53USM 4th & 2 at USM 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:33CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:45USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:35USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:29CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:46CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:35CLT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:11USM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:56USM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
87.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for no gain to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+27
87.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 27 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
87.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 2 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-4
87.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
87.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Kedrick DavisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
87.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2013% → 15%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+72
86.7%
Kalif Phillips run for 72 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
86.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.1%
Hasaan Klugh run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
85.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 17 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
85.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
85.6%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
85.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 46 yds, downed at the Charl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
84.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Kalif PhillipsSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
84.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 11Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+4
84.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 15Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 2
OWN 15
+22
84.5%
Arthur Hart punt for 42 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 22 yds to the Charl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:1584% → 85%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
84.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 26 yds to the Charl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
84.1%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to ROBERTSON, K., PENALTY CHA pass interference (IRVIN, Denzel) 7 yards to the CHA2, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
84.1%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 3Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
84.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
84.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 44 yds, downed at the SoMis 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7INT
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
84.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
84.4%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
84.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
84.9%
Ito Smith run for 21 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
85.1%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted, touchback. Terrance Winchester return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
83.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 19 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
82.6%
Robert Washington run for 6 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-3
82.4%
Matt Johnson sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 42Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
82.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+6
83.1%
Arthur Hart punt for 42 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 6 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:1983% → 85%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Randy SuydamSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+78
85.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 78 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0615% → 19%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete, broken up by Ja'Boree PooleSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
85.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 11 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.9%
Robert Washington run for 4 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
84.6%
Robert Washington run for 1 yd to the Charl 42Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+58
80.6%
Robert Washington run for 58 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
82.5%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
82.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-12
83.0%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 49 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+9
81.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 9 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
81.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 55 yds, downed at the Charl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+49
80.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 49 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
78.9%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 11
50
0
79.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete, broken up by Elijah ParkerSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 11
50
-9
79.7%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 9 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
80.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+31
80.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 31 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
82.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
81.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 6 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
81.7%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
82.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 5 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-8
82.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Nick Cook for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 37Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 13
OPP 37
-5
80.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 42Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 18
OPP 42
0
80.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
79.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds, downed at the Charl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 4:3223% → 42%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
77.1%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the Charl 1Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+8
77.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 8 yds to the Charl 9Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+3
77.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the Charl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
76.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+8
77.1%
Robert Washington run for 8 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+27
76.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 27 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
73.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
73.2%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+9
73.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Uriah LeMay for 9 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
73.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 27 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
72.0%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.4%
Chris Montgomery run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
64.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.1%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-4
65.2%
Nick Mullens sacked by Nick Carroll for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+29
63.7%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Daquan Lucas return for 29 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
46.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
51.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for no gain to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
51.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:3151% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
49.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to T.L. Ford IISimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
49.8%
Hasaan Klugh run for 12 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
48.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
48.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
48.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Uriah LeMay for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
47.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+8
47.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 8 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Nate MullenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
47.6%
Robert Washington run for 17 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
47.1%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
47.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Zach Bumgarner for 9 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
47.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete, broken up by Darian YanceySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
47.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 8 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
47.7%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the SoMis 4Similar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+22
33.1%
Blake Brewer 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
35.3%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
35.2%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-5
36.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Nick Mullens) to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
34.6%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+2
34.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds , Nate Mullen returns for 2 yds to the Charl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
29.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 8 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
28.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+1
28.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
27.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-9
27.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Robert Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the Charl 35Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+11
30.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Austin Duke for 11 yds to the Charl 46Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
29.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3927% → 9%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
26.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 4 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
26.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 4
OWN 19
-7
26.7%
Nick Mullens sacked by Karrington King for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
9.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt blocked by Juwan Foggie blocked by Juwan Foggie Ed Rolle return for no gain for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:079% → 15%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+31
9.2%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 31 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
9.7%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
9.8%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
50
+12
10.2%
George Payne run for 12 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
10.2%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 9 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
11.0%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
11.0%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Julian Allen for 9 yds to the Charl 16Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+5
11.1%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Charl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
7.6%
Parker Adamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
7.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Charl 8Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
14.5%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 2:1691% → 93%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
9.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+16
9.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 34 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kelsey Douglas) to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
8.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Robert Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 48Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+10
8.6%
Hasaan Klugh run for 10 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
8.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Kalif Phillips, broken up by Dylan BradleySimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
7.3%
Hasaan Klugh run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
6.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Chris MontgomerySimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
6.5%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-3
6.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Kalif Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
7.4%
Arthur Hart punt for 43 yds, downed at the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
20 plays · 99 yds · 4:527% → 16%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
6.6%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
6.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Korey Robertson) to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+23
6.5%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 23 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
6.9%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
7.0%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Korey Robertson for 2 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
7.0%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+5
6.9%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
7.0%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
6.9%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
6.8%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+8
7.3%
Parker Adamson run for 8 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
7.6%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Nick CookSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
7.6%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Ito Smith for 10 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
7.8%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Terrance WinchesterSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
7.7%
Parker Adamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
7.6%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+11
7.3%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Korey Robertson for 11 yds to the Charl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
8.5%
Parker Adamson run for 3 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+22
8.5%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Ito Smith for 22 yds to the Charl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.6%
Parker Adamson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5691% → 92%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
9.0%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-1
9.0%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+6
8.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 6 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
8.1%
Arthur Hart punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:007% → 9%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
7.1%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
7.0%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
7.1%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Tanner FlemingSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
6.5%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 4 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
7.5%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
7.2%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
6.9%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 13 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
8.3%
Parker Adamson run for 6 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
9.3%
Tez Parks pass intercepted Terrance Winchester return for no gain to the Charl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
4.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 4Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 4
-1
4.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 3Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+5
4.7%
Team rush for loss of 1 yard to the CHA2, PENALTY USM offside 5 yards to the CHA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 8
-1
4.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
-16.7
FG · Q3 9:29
Blake Brewer 22 yd FG GOOD
-14.7
TD · Q2 1:46
Chris Montgomery run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com