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MRSH

Marshall 14 at Southern Miss 24

USM
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:41 · George Payne run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense+5.9Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:47: Keion Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:22: Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 13 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST down — MRSH win probability +4.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 3:41: Chase Litton run for a loss of 11 yards to the Marsh 43 Chase Litton fumbled, recovered by Marsh Ryan Yurachek — MRSH win probability +6.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 12:08: Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +13.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:23: Ito Smith run for 40 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +5.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MRSH made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 1 at MRSH 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:23MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:52USM 4th & 16 at USM 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:08MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:56USM 4th & 4 at USM 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:38MRSH 4th & 25 at MRSH 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:07USM 4th & 7 at MRSH 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:59MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:57USM 4th & 7 at USM 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:47USM 4th & 8 at MRSH 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:55MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:52MRSH 4th & 12 at USM 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:21USM 4th & 3 at USM 10, up 3
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:54MRSH 4th & 6 at USM 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:16USM 4th & 6 at MRSH 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−7.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:16MRSH 4th & 18 at MRSH 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−4.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:41USM 4th & 1 at MRSH 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.7%−2.9
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:41MRSH 4th & 11 at USM 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:08MRSH 4th & 17 at MRSH 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:38USM 4th & 4 at USM 35, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:53MRSH 4th & 7 at USM 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−2.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:26MRSH 4th & 1 at USM 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:27USM 4th & 4 at MRSH 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:29USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:47MRSH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:08USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:23USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:26MRSH Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3174% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 14 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 13 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Julian Allen, broken up by Corey NeelySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 6 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
73.8%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for no gain to the Marsh 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 12 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
74.3%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
74.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
74.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
74.6%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 72 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
74.5%
George Payne run for 9 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+6
74.5%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
74.5%
Nick Mullens sacked by Frankie Hernandez for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
74.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+2
74.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+13
74.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 49 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 13 yds to the Marsh 27 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1626% → 26%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for no gain to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
74.3%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
73.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael Clark, broken up by Picasso Nelson Jr.Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
74.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D'Nerius Antoine at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
74.5%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 20
-3
74.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
74.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
73.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, downed at the Marsh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
73.6%
DAVIS, Keion rush for loss of 2 yards to the MAR39 (PARKER, Elijah;YANCEY, Darian), PENALTY MAR holding 10 yards to the MAR31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+4
74.2%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+4
74.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 4 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-13
74.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 2 yds to the Marsh 41 MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Nathaniel Devers) to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 25
OWN 26
+1
74.9%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 48 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 1 yd to the SoMis 27 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:3275% → 75%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
74.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 13 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
74.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 25 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
75.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
75.9%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
75.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Jaylon McClain-SappSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
75.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
75.4%
Parker Shaunfield 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
75.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 3 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
75.9%
Hyleck Foster run for 2 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+3
76.3%
Hyleck Foster run for 3 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
76.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to George Payne, broken up by Jason SmithSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.3%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+17
74.9%
George Payne run for 17 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
76.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
76.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
75.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
75.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:1224% → 33%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+24
76.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 24 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
75.7%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
75.1%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+21
75.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 21 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
74.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 14 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
73.8%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
73.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Deshadrick TrulySimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+15
74.8%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to MCMANUS, D. (COLLINS, Trae), PENALTY USM pass interference (COLLINS, Trae) 15 yards to the USM5, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.7%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
70.9%
Ito Smith run for 20 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
72.9%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
72.7%
Allenzae Staggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
72.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+38
70.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 43 yds for a touchback SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 6 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
68.8%
Hyleck Foster run for 5 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Hyleck FosterSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.4%
Hyleck Foster run for 5 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
68.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Emanuel ByrdSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+9
69.8%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 49 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 9 yds to the 50 yard line SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Deshadrick Truly) to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FUMBLE
11 plays · 68 yds · 2:2369% → 70%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
69.3%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+52
69.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 52 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
72.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
72.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+11
71.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 11 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
73.1%
Ito Smith run for 15 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-8
73.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Gary Thompson and Joe Massaquoi for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 23Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 18
OPP 23
+23
69.9%
Nick Mullens run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by Marsh Ryan Bee , return to the 50 yard line , return for 23 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2035% → 32%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
50
+13
65.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 13 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-6
64.7%
Chase Litton sacked by Elijah Parker and Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
68.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh Knight, broken up by D'Nerius AntoineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
67.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 2 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+19
67.8%
Keion Davis run for 19 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
66.8%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
66.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
68.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh Knight, broken up by Picasso Nelson Jr.Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
70.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 38 yds, downed at the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
70.1%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
69.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Terry RichardsonSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+5
68.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
68.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
65.7%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
65.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
66.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
68.3%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 35 yds, fair catch by D'Nerius Antoine at the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:0770% → 71%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+35
70.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 35 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
72.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
72.9%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
73.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 43Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
73.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 15 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
74.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
74.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+5
72.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 5 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
71.1%
Parker Shaunfield 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
68.5%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Marsh 24Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-8
69.7%
Chase Litton sacked by Dylan Bradley and Darian Yancey for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 16Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
71.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
72.0%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
72.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
72.4%
George Payne run for no gain to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-6
70.5%
George Payne run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0036% → 31%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-11
64.4%
Chase Litton run for a loss of 11 yards to the Marsh 43 Chase Litton fumbled, recovered by Marsh Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 21
OWN 43
0
67.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 21
OWN 43
+10
68.6%
Hyleck Foster run for 10 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
69.3%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 2:5869% → 88%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
69.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 11 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (C.J. Reavis) to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
71.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+15
71.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 15 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
73.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 17 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
74.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
73.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+14
72.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 14 yds to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
74.0%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
74.0%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManus, broken up by D'Nerius AntoineSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
87.3%
Chase Litton sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+2
88.2%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 55 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
87.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
87.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
87.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+10
86.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 43 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 10 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:0912% → 10%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.5%
Hyleck Foster run for 1 yd to the Marsh 33Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+14
88.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 14 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
87.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 4 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
87.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 9 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.8%
Hyleck Foster run for 5 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
85.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 6 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
85.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
85.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
88.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin Hunt, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
90.1%
Amoreto Curraj 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Dylan Bradley Dylan Bradley return for no gain to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:3092% → 99%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-1
92.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+24
92.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 24 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
98.5%
Ito Smith run for 40 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:472% → 6%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for no gain to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
97.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 7 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
97.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+44
94.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 44 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:5896% → 99%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
95.9%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
95.9%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the Marsh 40Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
96.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 2 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+11
98.2%
George Payne run for 11 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 28Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:08
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q2 6:47
Keion Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
-8.1
FUMBLE · Q3 3:41
Chase Litton run for a loss of 11 yards to the Marsh 43 Chase Litton fumbled, recovered by Marsh Ryan Yurachek
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com