Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 44 at Florida International 24

FIU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · FIU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Gerald Shouse punt for 46 yds, downed at the FlaIn 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior−18.6Home team on offense−19.3Score differential−9.1Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:12: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 26 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +7.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:16: Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +8.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:23: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Kam McKnight for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +7.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:14: Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +8.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:00: Austin Taylor kickoff for 57 yds , Carlos Henderson return for 92 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +10.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:31FIU 4th & 5 at LT 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:48LT 4th & 6 at FIU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:48FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:36FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:09FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 19, down 14
    Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:40LT 4th & 3 at FIU 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−1.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09FIU 4th & 14 at FIU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00LT 4th & 14 at FIU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 2 at FIU 47, up 17
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:16LT 4th & 7 at FIU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00FIU 4th & 16 at LT 33, down 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:36LT 4th & 6 at FIU 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:35FIU 4th & 4 at LT 32, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:36LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:19LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52FIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:12LT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:16FIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:23LT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:14FIU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:00LT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FIUDrive 1FG
17 plays · 69 yds · 6:2918% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.1%
Alex Gardner run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
18.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 8 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
18.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 7 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
18.1%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
18.1%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
18.1%
Anthony Jones run for 3 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
18.1%
JONES, Anthony rush for 6 yards to the LATECH40 (SAM, Prince), PENALTY LATECH offside 5 yards to the LATECH41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
18.1%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
18.1%
Alex Gardner run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
18.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
18.1%
Anthony Jones run for no gain to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+20
18.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 20 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
18.1%
Alex Gardner run for 7 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-2
18.1%
Alex Gardner run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
18.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
22.0%
Austin Taylor 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4379% → 78%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
21.5%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+8
21.4%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
21.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 4 yds to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
21.3%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-5
21.5%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Fermin Silva and Jermaine Sheriff for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
22.4%
Jonathan Barnes 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
22.7%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Stantley ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
22.7%
Anthony Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
22.4%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Anthony JonesSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
22.2%
Stone Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:0877% → 80%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
22.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+7
23.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 7 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+49
22.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 49 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
22.2%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 6Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
20.0%
Ryan Higgins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
20.9%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Darrius ScottSimilar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
20.9%
Alex McGough run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
20.6%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Darrius ScottSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+19
20.4%
Stone Wilson punt for 36 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 19 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0280% → 83%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
20.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
20.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 9 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
20.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 9 yds to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+5
20.0%
Ryan Higgins run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
20.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 4 yds to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-5
20.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+9
20.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the FlaIn 4Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
16.7%
Kam McKnight run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
17.8%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-7
17.8%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 16 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (-8 Yards) to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
17.7%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+11
17.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthony Jones for 11 yds to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
17.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
16.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 16 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
16.0%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
16.0%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Shermarke SpenceSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+7
16.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
16.5%
Gerald Shouse punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
16.8%
Anthony Jones run for no gain to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
16.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 3 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-7
16.6%
Alex McGough sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
16.5%
Stone Wilson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3985% → 87%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+35
15.4%
Carlos Henderson run for 35 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
15.4%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
15.4%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 6Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
15.4%
Ryan Higgins run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 3Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
15.4%
HIGGINS, Ryan pass complete to HENDERSON, C. for 3 yards to the FIU0, clock 04:40, PENALTY LATECH pass interference (HENDERSON, C.) 15 yards to the FIU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+4
15.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 4 yds to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
13.1%
Jonathan Barnes 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:0815% → 22%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
14.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 10 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
15.5%
Alex Gardner run for 6 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
15.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 9 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
15.7%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Darrius Scott, broken up by Xavier WoodsSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
15.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 11 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
16.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 10 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
16.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthony Jones for 7 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-5
16.2%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
22.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 0:4081% → 90%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
19.2%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
19.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 6 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+12
18.9%
Jarred Craft run for 12 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+21
19.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 21 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
10.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 26 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.1%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
12.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
12.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-5
12.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Darrell Brown) to the LaTch 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+24
12.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 24 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
11.7%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
11.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Jarred CraftSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
11.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Vontarius WestSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
12.5%
Gerald Shouse punt for 46 yds, downed at the FlaIn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 3:3412% → 22%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
12.3%
McGOUGH, Alex rush for 4 yards to the FIU5 (BROWN, Aaron), PENALTY LATECH offside (CANTY, Deldrick) 5 yards to the FIU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+12
12.3%
Alex Gardner run for 12 yds to the FlaIn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
12.4%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Darrius ScottSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
12.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 12 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
12.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 16 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
13.4%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+22
13.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 22 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
14.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
22.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
20.3%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+2
19.9%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+5
20.6%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
19.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 24 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
18.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 1 yd to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
18.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+2
19.2%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
20.0%
Gerald Shouse punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
18.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 4 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
18.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthony Jones for 7 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
18.7%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+44
18.2%
Alex McGough pass intercepted Xavier Woods return for 45 yds to the FLAINTL 29 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal block (Darrius Scott) to the FlaIn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3985% → 92%
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.5%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Kam McKnight for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:2310% → 9%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
10.4%
Maurice Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+17
10.0%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 17 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
11.4%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 11 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
11.7%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+12
11.6%
Alex Gardner run for 12 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
12.3%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Aaron Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 33
0
10.5%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Alex Gardner, broken up by Dalton SantosSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 33
0
9.7%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by Lloyd GroganSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 33
0
9.2%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Jonnu SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:0694% → 98%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
6.3%
Carlos Henderson run for 9 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+5
5.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
5.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 11 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
5.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Boston Scott for 22 yds to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
5.5%
Boston Scott run for 12 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
5.5%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 6Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
5.5%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the FlaIn 6Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
5.6%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Kam McKnight, broken up by Tyree JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
2.1%
Jonathan Barnes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:222% → 12%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
2.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthony Jones for 3 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
2.3%
Alex McGough run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
2.4%
Anthony Jones run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
2.4%
Anthony Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
2.4%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Stantley ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+32
2.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 32 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.8%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-6
2.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 16
OPP 41
0
2.5%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Anthony JonesSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 16
OPP 41
+15
2.4%
McGOUGH, Alex pass incomplete to OWENS, Thomas, PENALTY LATECH pass interference (KING, DaMarion) 15 yards to the LATECH26, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
2.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 20 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.6%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
12.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:251% → 1%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
1.3%
Alex McGough sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+10
1.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 10 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
1.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 6 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
1.4%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (Jonnu Smith) to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
1.3%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Alex GardnerSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+13
1.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Thomas Owens for 13 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+9
1.5%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Darrius Scott for 9 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
1.4%
Maurice Alexander run for 8 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
1.6%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Jonnu Smith, broken up by Prince SamSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-2
1.6%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Brandon Durman for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+3
1.0%
Maurice Alexander run for 3 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
0.8%
Boston Scott run for 7 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
0.8%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-2
0.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:00
Austin Taylor kickoff for 57 yds , Carlos Henderson return for 92 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-10.8
TD · Q4 6:14
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q3 9:16
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com