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UTSA

UTSA 14 at Rice 13

RICE
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:11 · Jack Fox punt for 36 yds, downed at the TexSA 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOne-score game
+16.5+8.30−8.3−16.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense−7.3Score differential−3.5Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2One-score game−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:29: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 28 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:49: Samuel Stewart 13 Yd pass from Tyler Stehling (Hayden Tobola Kick) — RICE win probability +15.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FUMBLE · Q4 5:00: Tyler Stehling pass complete to N/A for 13 yds Josh Stewart fumbled, forced by Nate Gaines, recovered by Rice Zach Wright for a 1ST down — RICE win probability +7.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:27: Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 28 — UTSA win probability +19.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:20: Tyler Stehling pass complete to Kylen Granson for 18 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST down — RICE win probability +10.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:17UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:43RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:01RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:29RICE 4th & 17 at RICE 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:06UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:39RICE 4th & 13 at UTSA 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:11RICE 4th & 15 at UTSA 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 8 at RICE 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:49UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:05RICE 4th & 8 at UTSA 41, down 1
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:23UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−2.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:13RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 31, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:09UTSA 4th & 2 at RICE 2, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−4.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−24.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:27RICE 4th & 3 at UTSA 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−13.6
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−31.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:29UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−13.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:17RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:01UTSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:29UTSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:49RICE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4349% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 3 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
49.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 5 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
49.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Temi Alaka, broken up by Teddrick McGheeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
49.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to V.J. BanksSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+30
49.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to James Mayden for 30 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
49.1%
Samuel Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+2
49.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+11
49.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 11 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
49.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 4 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
49.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 6 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
49.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for no gain to the TexSA 13Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
52.1%
Tyler Stehling run for 13 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
51.2%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Emmanuel Ellerbee for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+8
51.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 43 yds , Samuel Stewart returns for 8 yds to the Rice 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
52.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 9 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
52.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
52.6%
Darik Dillard run for 6 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
52.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
52.7%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Josiah Tauaefa for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 46Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+1
52.2%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the Rice 47Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+33
51.9%
Jack Fox punt for 33 yds , Aron Taylor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:2747% → 50%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
52.9%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+12
53.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 12 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
52.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Josh Stewart) to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+75
50.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 75 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.8%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
49.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Austin Walter for 3 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
49.6%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to N/A for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
49.4%
Jack Fox punt for 49 yds , Aron Taylor returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 33 TEXASSAN Penalty, illegal block (Andrew Martel) to the TexSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1849% → 49%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
50.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
50.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 3 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+13
51.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 13 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
50.3%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+5
50.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
50.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 12 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
49.6%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Tabari McGaskey and Preston Gordon for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-4
49.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Tabari McGaskey and Blain Padgett for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
50.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for no gain to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
50.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds , Nahshon Ellerbe returns for no gain to the Rice 28 Nahshon Ellerbe fumbled, recovered by TexSA JaColbie ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
41.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 28 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
43.7%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the Rice 38Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
43.8%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-10
43.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to N/A for a loss of 10 yards to the Rice 30Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Jack Fox punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Aron Taylor at the TexSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
42.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete, broken up by Alex LyonsSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
42.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 9 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+14
42.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aron Taylor for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
41.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-2
41.0%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Roe Wilkins for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
41.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Cole ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
42.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:5441% → 38%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
40.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 5 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
41.0%
Austin Walter run for 4 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
41.2%
Austin Walter run for 3 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
41.1%
Austin Walter run for 5 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
42.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach Wright, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+21
41.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Kylen Granson for 21 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
43.3%
Jowan Davis run for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
44.2%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
44.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Connor Cella, broken up by C.J. LevineSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
44.1%
Tyler Stehling run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 13
OPP 32
0
41.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
37.7%
Hayden Tobola 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0063% → 64%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
37.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
36.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
36.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
35.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 5 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
36.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
35.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 38 Jalen Rhodes fumbled, forced by Tabari McGaskey, recovered by Rice Tabari McGaskey , return for 17 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0040% → 36%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
40.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
40.0%
Tyler Stehling run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
37.6%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Austin Walter for no gain to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
36.0%
Jack Fox punt for 36 yds, downed at the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
36.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
34.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Andrew King for 8 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+6
33.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
33.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
32.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by J.T. IbeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
33.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 8 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
32.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for no gain to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
32.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
32.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
34.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Samuel Stewart at the Rice 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:0834% → 54%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
33.9%
Samuel Stewart run for 11 yds to the Rice 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
34.3%
Samuel Stewart run for 11 yds to the Rice 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
35.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 37 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Connor CellaSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
39.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 11 yds to the TexSA 14 Josh Stewart fumbled, forced by Michael Egwuagu, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
39.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 7 yds to the TexSA 7 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (Connor Cella) to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 13
OPP 17
0
39.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+4
38.8%
Samuel Stewart run for 4 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
54.4%
Samuel Stewart 13 Yd pass from Tyler Stehling (Hayden Tobola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
48.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Jevonte Domond) to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+9
49.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 9 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
50.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Peyton HallSimilar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
51.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds , Samuel Stewart returns for 3 yds to the Rice 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 3:0754% → 49%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
53.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
51.8%
RICE Penalty, false start (Cory Klingler) to the Rice 37Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+13
50.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 2
50
+1
53.9%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+5
52.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Solomon Wise) to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
54.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 3 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
54.4%
Samuel Stewart run for 4 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-5
51.2%
RICE Penalty, delay of game (Tyler Stehling) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
48.6%
Jack Fox punt for 38 yds, downed at the TexSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3052% → 51%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
47.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 11 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
47.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
47.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+8
48.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Larry Stephens for 8 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
46.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
46.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+2
43.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-5
45.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
48.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 59 yds , Samuel Stewart returns for no gain to the Rice 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
47.0%
Samuel Stewart run for 14 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
47.8%
Samuel Stewart run for 3 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Lance Wright, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
45.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Rice 30Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
47.2%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd to the Rice 31Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
46.3%
Jack Fox punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Aron Taylor at the TexSA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 58 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
44.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+18
42.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 18 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
41.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+3
38.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.3%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the Rice 30Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
39.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
40.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
38.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the Rice 19Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
39.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
41.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 10 yds to the Rice 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
38.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Rice 7Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
38.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Larry Stephens for 5 yds to the Rice 2Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the Rice 2Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
43.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:3346% → 49%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
46.0%
Austin Walter run for 6 yds to the Rice 12Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-1
46.3%
Nate German run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 11Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+11
43.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to N/A for 11 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
47.0%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 15 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Strong Jr. Kevin) to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
54.0%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to N/A for 13 yds Josh Stewart fumbled, forced by Nate Gaines, recovered by Rice Zach Wright for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
56.6%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
56.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 4 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+3
53.8%
Samuel Stewart run for 3 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
48.8%
Hayden Tobola 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5871% → 78%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
29.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-2
24.6%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+1
28.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+10
22.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 47 yds , Samuel Stewart returns for 10 yds to the Rice 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:0033% → 38%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
32.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Kylen Granson for 18 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.4%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+19
37.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to James Mayden for 19 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-37.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:27
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 28
-19.3
TD · Q3 7:49
Samuel Stewart 13 Yd pass from Tyler Stehling (Hayden Tobola Kick)
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com