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USM

Southern Miss 32 at UTSA 55

UTSA
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:12 · Yannis Routsas punt for 48 yds , D'Nerius Antoine returns for no gain to the SoMis 13 D'Nerius Antoine fumbled, recovered by TexSA Andrew Martel
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior−9.3Home team on offense+30.9Score differential+20.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.2Garbage-time factor+11.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:20: Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +13.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:33: Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +14.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:26: Jalen Rhodes run for 80 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +25.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:24: Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +11.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:23: Matt Guidry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +18.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 13:38USM 4th & 3 at USM 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45USM 4th & 5 at USM 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:08USM 4th & 1 at UTSA 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−1.0
    80% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−4.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:53USM 4th & 5 at UTSA 23, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:33UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:07USM 4th & 5 at UTSA 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−1.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 6 at USM 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:10USM 4th & 8 at UTSA 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−13.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:32USM 4th & 9 at UTSA 11, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:03UTSA 4th & 20 at UTSA 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−4.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 6 at UTSA 23, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:12UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 38, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:50UTSA 4th & 5 at USM 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:47UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:38UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:45UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:15UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:08USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:20UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:33USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:26UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:24USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:23UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:47USM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:57UTSA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2217% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
16.9%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
16.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
17.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 71 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
17.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Nate GainesSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
17.8%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
17.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 34
-2
17.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 44 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:3019% → 20%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+77
18.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 77 yds to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
19.9%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 13Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+4
19.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
19.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
20.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:1022% → 30%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
21.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 8 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
21.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
21.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 17 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
23.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 23 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
23.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:0771% → 70%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
29.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 28 yds Korey Robertson fumbled, forced by Nate Gaines, recovered by SoMis Korey Robertson for a 1ST down , return for 5 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
28.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
28.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
28.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 11 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
27.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Jarrod McLinSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
27.8%
Mullens rush left for no gain to the UTSA26 (Tauaefa), PENALTY UTSA offside defense 5 yards to the UTSA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
27.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
28.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
28.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+10
28.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 10 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
28.5%
Mullens crossing pass incomplete to Thompson (Strong Jr.), PENALTY UTSA offside defense 5 yards to the UTSA37, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+17
30.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 17 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:4832% → 46%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
32.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
32.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+43
32.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 28 yds to the TEXASSAN 43 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
32.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 15 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
32.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, IP (7 Yards) to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
46.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:4755% → 61%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
45.1%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
46.0%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+12
46.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 12 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
45.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 3 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+33
45.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 33 yds to the TEXASSAN 28 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
43.6%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
44.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
44.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+22
52.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 22 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
43.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Corbin White for 3 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
44.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-6
43.2%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Sherrod Ruff and Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+16
41.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 16 yds to the 50 yard line SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
43.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 19 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
42.8%
Smith,I rush right for 1 yard to the USM43 (Bass), PENALTY UTSA offside defense 5 yards to the USM47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 5
OWN 47
0
41.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
41.8%
George Payne run for 7 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
41.6%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
41.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by N'Keal BaileySimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
41.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
42.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
68.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 80 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0237% → 49%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
63.5%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
62.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
63.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 7 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
62.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 9 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-2
61.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+14
62.5%
Ito Smith run for 14 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
61.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
62.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Nate GainesSimilar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+12
62.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
51.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:2458% → 68%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
57.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+24
57.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 24 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
58.1%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-2
57.8%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+7
56.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
68.2%
Victor Falcon 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5035% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
65.3%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+15
65.6%
Mullens deep pass incomplete to Jones, PENALTY UTSA pass interference 15 yards to the USM33, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
64.2%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+16
63.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 16 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
63.4%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+17
64.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 17 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
60.6%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
60.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+7
61.9%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
60.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
60.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
61.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
67.8%
Parker Shaunfield 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:4773% → 92%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
73.2%
Sturm deep pass incomplete to Stewart (Armstrong), PENALTY USM pass interference 15 yards to the USM42, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
73.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
73.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Devonta FosterSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
72.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
73.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Corbin White for 5 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+7
73.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
91.8%
Matt Guidry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:5110% → 8%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
90.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+17
89.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 17 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
89.6%
Allenzae Staggers run for 28 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.4%
Parker Adamson pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
88.4%
Parker Adamson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+3
89.2%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 11 Team fumbled, recovered by SoMis Parker Adamson , return for 3 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 9
OPP 11
0
92.2%
Parker Adamson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2395% → 98%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-8
94.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Curtis Mikell for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 3Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 18
OWN 3
-1
94.7%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 2Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 19
OWN 2
-1
97.6%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 1Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 20
OWN 1
+5
97.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 45 , D'Nerius Antoine returns for 5 yds to the TexSA 6 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, IB (10 Yards) to the TexSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:195% → 4%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.6%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
94.7%
Ito Smith run for 18 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
93.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
94.2%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+3
96.1%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 23
-8
96.1%
Nick Mullens sacked by Strong Jr. Kevin for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 30 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by TexSA La'Kel Bass , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
98.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
98.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
98.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 4 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 48 yds , D'Nerius Antoine returns for no gain to the SoMis 13 D'Nerius Antoine fumbled, recovered by TexSA Andrew MartelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
98.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 8 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-3
98.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
99.0%
Victor Falcon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
15 plays · 86 yds · 4:032% → 9%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase Whitehead, broken up by C.J. LevineSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+13
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 13 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
98.0%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+13
97.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 13 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Teddrick McGheeSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
97.8%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 4
50
+5
97.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
97.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
97.7%
Mullens deep pass incomplete to Robertson (Dahlquist), PENALTY UTSA offside defense 5 yards to the UTSA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+1
97.6%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
97.5%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+33
91.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 33 yds for a TD, (Nick Mullens pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
97.3%
Rhodes rush over left tackle for 13 yards to the UTSA38, PENALTY UTSA personal foul 12 yards to the UTSA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+3
97.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 3 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
97.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 7 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+31
97.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds , D'Nerius Antoine returns for 31 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23INT
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
94.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 5 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+17
94.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 17 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+14
94.6%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Josiah Tauaefa return for 14 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:1899% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
98.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-7 Yards) to the TexSA 8Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
98.6%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 5Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 13
OWN 5
-2
98.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+2
98.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+92
99.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 92 yds to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.6%
Tez Parks run for 11 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.6%
Tez Parks run for 9 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+8
99.5%
Parker Adamson pass complete to Shawn Brickley for 8 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.5%
Tez Parks run for 11 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
99.4%
Tez Parks run for 11 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:26
Jalen Rhodes run for 80 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q3 6:23
Matt Guidry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
+18.5
TD · Q2 11:33
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com