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MRSH

Marshall 21 at North Texas 38

UNT
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:31 · Amoreto Curraj 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior−19.1Home team on offense+6.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:33: Mason Fine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +9.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:47: Eric Keena kickoff for 68 yds , Keion Davis return for 99 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:31: Mason Fine pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +21.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:00: Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 1 yd for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +14.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:15: Jeffrey Wilson run for 72 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +23.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 10:22MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:39MRSH 4th & 13 at UNT 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33MRSH 4th & 5 at UNT 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:07UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:19MRSH 4th & 2 at UNT 41, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−2.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:45UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31MRSH 4th & 16 at UNT 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:47UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−3.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:04MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 41, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:32MRSH 4th & 24 at MRSH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−6.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:39UNT 4th & 15 at MRSH 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:39MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:26UNT 4th & 14 at MRSH 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−6.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:26MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 19, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:35MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 45, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:22UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:03MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:47MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:31UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:00MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:15UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:35UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3818% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
17.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 4 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
17.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
17.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
17.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Ryan BeeSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+15
17.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, roughing the kicker (15 Yards) to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
17.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 1 yd to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-1
17.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+34
17.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 34 yds to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
17.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
21.1%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 17Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
21.2%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+10
21.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 10 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
21.1%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
21.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh KnightSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
21.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+5
21.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 50 yds , Turner Smiley returns for 5 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.2%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
23.0%
Mason Fine sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
22.8%
Eric Keena punt for 34 yds, downed at the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
23.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
23.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
23.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 5 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
23.7%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-3
23.7%
Anthony Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
24.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
24.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 36 yds, downed at the NoTex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
26.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
26.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
26.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
26.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+5
26.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+2
26.2%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the NoTex 14 Mason Fine fumbled, forced by Gary Thompson, recovered by Marsh C.J. ReavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5174% → 77%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
26.5%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
26.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (Jordan Dowrey) to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+3
27.0%
Keion Davis run for 13 yds to the NoTex 6 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (Deon-Tay McManus) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+5
26.6%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
27.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoTex 6Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
23.5%
Chase Litton run for 6 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3025% → 37%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.4%
Willy Ivery run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
25.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
24.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 9 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
25.7%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
26.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 10 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
27.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-2
27.3%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+10
26.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 10 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
27.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+10
27.3%
Mason Fine run for 10 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
27.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 6 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+12
27.6%
Willy Ivery run for 12 yds to the Marsh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
36.8%
Mason Fine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
34.5%
Anthony Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+30
35.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 30 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
32.5%
Anthony Anderson run for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
32.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
32.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
33.7%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
38.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
38.0%
Mason Fine sacked by Ryan Bee for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
36.8%
Eric Keena punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
38.5%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
37.7%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
38.7%
Chase Litton run for 7 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
37.3%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
37.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 7 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
37.1%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+35
38.6%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 30 yds NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) to the NoTex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:1344% → 46%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+17
44.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 17 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
44.7%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
44.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+6
43.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+15
45.5%
Eric Keena punt for 49 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 15 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 1:0054% → 50%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
46.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Keion Davis) to the Marsh 20Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+5
46.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 5 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+15
47.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Jareid Combs) to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
44.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 6 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
43.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 8 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
43.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 21 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
41.2%
Chase Litton sacked by Brandon Garner for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 16
OPP 31
0
45.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 16
OPP 31
0
48.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
49.6%
Amoreto Curraj 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
49.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+11
48.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds to the NoTex 45 Jeffrey Wilson fumbled, forced by Rodney Allen, recovered by Marsh Gary ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:2555% → 55%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
45.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
46.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+20
47.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 20 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
43.2%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+42
44.6%
Amoreto Curraj 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
36.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Creighton Barr) to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+18
35.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 18 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
37.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
37.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
37.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kenny Buyers, broken up by Omari CobbSimilar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
36.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-1
34.7%
Mason Fine sacked by Omari Cobb for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 14:47
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+22
33.9%
Eric Keena punt for 50 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 22 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
33.0%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-10
32.1%
MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (Michael Clark) to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
34.9%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
36.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
36.8%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 45 yds, downed at the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:2538% → 64%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
38.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Chase HancockSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
38.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 5 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Bee) to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
40.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
38.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Kendall GantSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+6
36.6%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+18
36.8%
Eric Keena run for 18 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
42.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Eric Keena) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
41.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+24
41.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 24 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
43.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+13
43.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 13 yds to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
43.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 11Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
43.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
64.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3143% → 65%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
56.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 27 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
52.7%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
53.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+43
55.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 43 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Keion DavisSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
50.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Calvin Minor) to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.2%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.2%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 1 yd for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:4543% → 66%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
42.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 15 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
65.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 72 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:4339% → 30%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
61.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 14 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
58.9%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-13
60.1%
Chase Litton sacked by Joshua Wheeler for a loss of 13 yards to the Marsh 25Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 24
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael Clark, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 24
OWN 25
+1
69.7%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 44 yds , Turner Smiley returns for 1 yd to the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 5:3375% → 82%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
74.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
76.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Trey Keenan) to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-4
74.3%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+14
75.3%
Mason Fine run for 14 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
78.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 10 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
79.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-3
79.4%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+11
77.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 11 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
79.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+6
80.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
80.4%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
80.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Willy IverySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-4
78.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Omari Cobb for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+46
81.7%
Trevor Moore 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
76.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 11 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
75.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-9
75.4%
Chase Litton sacked by Kishawn McClain for a loss of 9 yards to the Marsh 35Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+21
79.0%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 43 yds , Turner Smiley returns for 21 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:1686% → 91%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
85.4%
Mason Fine run for 8 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+13
85.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 13 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
86.4%
Willy Ivery run for 7 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+22
87.0%
Willy Ivery run for 22 yds to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
87.0%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the Marsh 7Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
87.0%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd to the Marsh 6Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
86.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Ryan Bee and Gary Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 14Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
91.4%
Trevor Moore 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25INT TD
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:518% → 2%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-11
91.1%
Chase Litton sacked by Brandon Garner for a loss of 11 yards to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
92.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+25
93.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 25 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Keion DavisSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
90.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 4 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+52
97.8%
Chase Litton pass intercepted for a TD Eric Jenkins return for 52 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
97.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 11 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 1 yd to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-2
97.8%
Chase Litton sacked by Jareid Combs and Jarrian Roberts for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+1
98.0%
Chase Litton run for 1 yd to the Marsh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-3
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:15
Jeffrey Wilson run for 72 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+23
TD · Q3 6:31
Mason Fine pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+21.2
TD · Q3 4:00
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 1 yd for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com