2016 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2016 · FAU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:47 · Arthur Hart punt for 55 yds , Jalen Young returns for 14 yds to the Charl 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:51: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Austin Duke for 69 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK) — CLT win probability +5.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:53: Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +7.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:23: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 37 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK) — CLT win probability +13.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:12: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Justin Bolus for 3 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK) — CLT win probability +17.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:28: Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FAU win probability +16.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 11:09FAU 4th & 10 at CLT 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call83.1%81% to makePunt82.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:09CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 34, down 3Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:32FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snapGo for it82.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.8%average punt
- Q2 14:54FAU 4th & 4 at CLT 46, up 3Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it80.5%48% to convertField goal79.8%−0.623% to makePuntTheir call80.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:51FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.6%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.9%average punt
- Q2 9:43CLT 4th & 4 at FAU 48, up 4Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it26.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:53CLT 4th & 1 at FAU 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.4%70% to convertField goal23.1%−2.238% to makePunt22.8%−2.5average punt
- Q3 15:00CLT 4th & 1 at FAU 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.4%70% to convertField goal31.0%−4.428% to makePunt32.6%−2.9average punt
- Q3 10:12FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it45.4%−0.552% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%average punt
- Q3 9:24CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 24, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.1%−2.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q3 4:47CLT 4th & 27 at CLT 1, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snapGo for it51.7%−9.45% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.1%average punt
- Q3 3:33FAU 4th & 15 at CLT 47, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snapGo for it33.5%−2.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.7%average punt
- Q4 9:28CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 34, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it67.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.1%−3.9average punt
- Q4 7:47FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 48, down 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it36.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.2%−1.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 4:17CLT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.5%97% to makeGo for two20.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.5%97% to makeGo for two80.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:51CLT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.1%97% to makeGo for two25.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:53FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.2%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:23CLT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.6%97% to makeGo for two33.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:12CLT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:28FAU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick38.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call37.6%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1FG12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5181% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
81.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 9 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
81.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 15 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
81.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 3 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+14
81.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 14 yds to the Charl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
81.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Anthony CovingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
CLTDrive 4TD8 plays · 77 yds · 3:2020% → 24%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+30
79.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Austin Duke for 30 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD15 plays · 65 yds · 4:2377% → 79%
Q1 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+13
76.8%
PARR, Daniel pass incomplete to WOODS, Kalib, PENALTY CHA pass interference (DELUCA, Ben) 13 yards to the CHA48, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
77.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kalib Woods for 10 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
77.6%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Gregory Howell Jr., broken up by Anthony CovingtonSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+12
77.3%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kalib Woods for 12 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
CLTDrive 7TD5 plays · 89 yds · 2:2323% → 28%
FAUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Kedrick DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 9:43
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-1
70.1%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10TD15 plays · 95 yds · 5:1269% → 79%
Q2 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+17
69.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 17 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+14
69.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 14 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+15
69.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 15 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
72.9%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to MITCHELL, John (DAVIS, Kedrick), PENALTY CHA pass interference (DAVIS, Markevis) 15 yards to the CHA13, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
71.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 7 yds to the Charl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:3024% → 40%
Q2 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
75.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 19 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
73.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 5 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
59.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 37 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
65.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 13 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4837% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
62.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 23 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
60.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 12 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
59.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Austin Duke for 3 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
60.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Azeez Al-Shaair) to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
41.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Justin Bolus for 3 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
CLTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
FAUDrive 16INT6 plays · 37 yds · 0:0041% → 45%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
40.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
43.7%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 14 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
45.3%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Ben DeLuca return for no gain to the Charl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT7 plays · -17 yds · 1:2662% → 61%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
37.6%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Hunter Snyder for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 10Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-13
37.4%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 13 yards to the Charl 5Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 27
OWN 1
+14
39.1%
Arthur Hart punt for 55 yds , Jalen Young returns for 14 yds to the Charl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0039% → 34%
Q3 3:33
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-10
37.8%
WHYTE, Kerrith rush for 9 yards to the CHA35 (MCDONALD, AJ), PENALTY FAU holding (CAMERON, Tyler) 10 yards to the FAU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 17
OPP 49
+2
35.7%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 2 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
34.3%
Dalton Schomp punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Austin Duke at the Charl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19INT7 plays · 45 yds · 1:1768% → 75%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+5
29.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Austin Duke for 5 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+11
26.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 11 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
25.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted Anthony Hamilton return for no gain to the FlAtl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20TD12 plays · 64 yds · 4:2628% → 49%
Q4 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
27.3%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 15 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
29.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 14 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+11
30.2%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kalib Woods for 11 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Austin Duke for 1 yd to the Charl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
CLTDrive 23FUMBLE15 plays · 58 yds · 3:4372% → 89%
Q4 2:21
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+1
10.8%
Robert Washington run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 28 Robert Washington fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by FlAtl Trey HendricksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24END OF HALF9 plays · 72 yds · 0:3412% → 12%
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
11.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
10.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+23
10.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 23 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
12.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Anthony CovingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:12
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Justin Bolus for 3 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q4 9:28
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+16
TD · Q2 0:23
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 37 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)
-13.3