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RICE

Rice 28 at Southern Miss 44

USM
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:09: Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 81 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +5.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:41: Samuel Stewart run for 24 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +9.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:46: Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 93 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +7.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:52: Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 11 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +7.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:59: Samuel Stewart run for 17 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +7.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:55USM 4th & 6 at RICE 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:55RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:40USM 4th & 8 at USM 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00RICE 4th & 15 at USM 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:05USM 4th & 1 at USM 20, up 3
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:52RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:09RICE 4th & 6 at USM 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:13USM 4th & 20 at RICE 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:09RICE 4th & 16 at RICE 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:46RICE 4th & 26 at RICE 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:11USM 4th & 8 at RICE 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:03RICE 4th & 27 at RICE 11, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 9:03RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:52USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:09USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:41RICE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:46USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:31USM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:52RICE Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:37USM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:59RICE Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Jowan Davis run for no gain to the Rice 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Jowan Davis for 6 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
92.5%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Jack Fox punt for 54 yds, downed at the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
92.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 6 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
92.1%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+13
92.1%
Ito Smith run for 13 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+54
92.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 54 yds Ito Smith fumbled, forced by J.T. Blasingame, recovered by Rice J.T. IbeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:558% → 10%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
91.7%
STEWART, Samuel rush for no gain to the RICE20 (ANTOINE, D.), PENALTY RICE holding 10 yards to the RICE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+10
91.7%
Samuel Stewart run for 10 yds to the Rice 20Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
91.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Samuel Stewart for 2 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
91.8%
STEHLING, Tyler sacked for loss of 7 yards to the RICE15 (RUFF, Sherrod), PENALTY USM offside 5 yards to the RICE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
91.7%
Samuel Stewart run for 4 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
91.7%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-10
91.7%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 10 yards to the Rice 23Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+16
91.8%
Jowan Davis run for 16 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+6
90.5%
Jack Fox punt for 51 yds , D'Nerius Antoine returns for 6 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:5491% → 90%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
90.5%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+22
90.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 22 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
90.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 19 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
90.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 10 yds to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
90.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by J.T. BlasingameSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
90.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 9 yds to the Rice 15Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
90.8%
Nick Mullens run for 6 yds to the Rice 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.9%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the Rice 8Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
90.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
89.8%
Parker Shaunfield 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
89.8%
Samuel Stewart run for 16 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
89.4%
Nate German run for 6 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
89.4%
Nate German run for 2 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-1
89.4%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 47Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
89.6%
Jack Fox punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
88.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
88.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
88.5%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
88.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by V.J. Banks at the Rice 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:1812% → 12%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.9%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
88.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 6 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+10
87.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 10 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
87.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
87.6%
Nate German run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-5
87.8%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Darian Yancey for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 48 Tyler Stehling fumbled, recovered by Rice Tyler Stehling , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
88.5%
Jack Fox punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
87.8%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
87.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+5
87.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 5 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
87.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by V.J. Banks at the Rice 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:4214% → 18%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
86.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Kylen Granson for 4 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
86.3%
Jowan Davis run for 6 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
86.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 10 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
85.6%
Samuel Stewart run for 16 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
85.6%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
85.6%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
86.1%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+8
86.1%
Tyler Stehling run for 8 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Samuel Stewart for 7 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
82.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dylan Bradley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
86.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 75 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 0
OWN 0
0
86.2%
SARRAZIN, Tyler kickoff 63 yards to the RICE2, WALTER, Austin return to the RICE18 (DAVIS, Walden), PENALTY RICE illegal block off-setting, PENALTY USM face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 6 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-13
85.4%
RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (-13 Yards) to the Rice 18Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
86.1%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
86.5%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the Rice 24 Jowan Davis fumbled, forced by Sherrod Ruff, recovered by RiceSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
86.7%
Jack Fox punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
86.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
86.5%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted V.J. Banks return for no gain to the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
83.2%
Samuel Stewart run for 8 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
82.7%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
82.8%
Jowan Davis run for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-5
83.7%
RICE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
84.2%
Jack Fox punt for 46 yds, downed at the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 1:5584% → 86%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
84.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+82
83.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 82 yds Julian Allen fumbled, forced by J.T. Ibe, recovered by SoMis for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
86.1%
Nick Mullens sacked by Emmanuel Ellerbee and Destri White for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 16Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+8
86.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 8 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-12
85.5%
Nick Mullens sacked by Emmanuel Ellerbee for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 15 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, intentional grounding (Nick Mullens) to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 15
OPP 20
-5
83.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+42
86.4%
Parker Shaunfield 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15END OF HALF
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:0713% → 12%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
87.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Samuel Stewart for 8 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
86.3%
Tyler Stehling run for 8 yds to the Rice 41 Tyler Stehling fumbled, forced by Curtis Mikell, recovered by Rice for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
86.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 13 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
85.0%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 47Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 17
OWN 47
0
88.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 17
OWN 47
-5
88.4%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Elijah Parker for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:5187% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by V.J. BanksSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
86.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-5
86.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+81
91.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 81 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.4%
RICE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 20Similar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
91.5%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd to the Rice 21Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
91.6%
Samuel Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 20Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-1
91.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Samuel Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 19Similar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
91.8%
Jack Fox punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
92.9%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
92.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Rice 37 Ito Smith fumbled, forced by V.J. Banks, recovered by Rice Alex LyonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:019% → 19%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
91.2%
Nate German pass complete to Temi Alaka for 37 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
89.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
80.6%
Samuel Stewart run for 24 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 0:5585% → 93%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
85.3%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+93
92.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 93 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+18
92.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 60 yds , Aston Walter returns for 18 yds to the Rice 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
92.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 6 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+4
91.5%
Samuel Stewart run for 4 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
91.7%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 29Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+5
92.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to James Mayden for 5 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-10
92.2%
STEHLING, Tyler rush for 6 yards to the RICE40, out-of-bounds (ARMSTRONG, C.), PENALTY RICE holding 10 yards to the RICE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 19
OWN 24
-7
92.4%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Ja'Boree Poole and Dylan Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 17Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 26
OWN 17
0
92.6%
Jack Fox punt for 31 yds, downed at the Rice 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:4394% → 98%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
93.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Rice 47Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
93.4%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+13
93.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 13 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
93.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 7 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+13
93.2%
MULLENS, Nick FA pass incomplete to ROBERTSON, K., PENALTY RICE roughing passer 13 yards to the RICE14, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
93.5%
Nick Mullens run for 6 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
93.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Rice 7Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
93.2%
Nick Mullens run for 5 yds to the Rice 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:392% → 9%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the Rice 33Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
98.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 15 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
98.0%
Nate German pass complete to Lance Wright for 29 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
97.6%
Nate German run for 12 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.6%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 11 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1595% → 99%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
95.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 19 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
95.4%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+29
95.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 29 yds to the Rice 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by Brandon DouglasSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
95.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Rice 9Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:381% → 8%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.9%
Samuel Stewart run for 6 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+28
98.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 28 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.8%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+14
98.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 14 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
91.7%
Samuel Stewart run for 17 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 4:4895% → 98%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for no gain to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
95.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for no gain to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+16
95.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 16 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
95.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 10 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
95.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+8
95.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 8 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by J.T. BlasingameSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
96.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 15 yds to the Rice 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
96.9%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-1
96.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 26 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
97.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by J.T. BlasingameSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
97.5%
Parker Shaunfield 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -17 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
96.6%
STEHLING, Tyler deep pass incomplete to BANKS, VJ, PENALTY RICE holding 10 yards to the RICE18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-2
96.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Samuel Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 16Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 22
OWN 16
0
96.9%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 22
OWN 16
-5
96.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Jowan Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 11Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 27
OWN 11
0
96.9%
Jack Fox punt for 43 yds, downed at the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
99.0%
George Payne run for 10 yds to the SOUMISS 44 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
99.0%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 30Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+12
99.0%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the Rice 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Rice 16Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+13
99.3%
George Payne run for 13 yds to the Rice 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 4Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 5Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:41
Samuel Stewart run for 24 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 9:46
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 93 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q4 10:59
Samuel Stewart run for 17 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com