Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 30 at North Texas 13

UNT
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:07 · Mason Fine pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:21: Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +5.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 11 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:14: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:57: Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNT win probability +3.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: I'Tavius Mathers run for 46 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:21MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:19UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:58MTSU 4th & 8 at UNT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:58UNT 4th & 22 at UNT 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:24MTSU 4th & 15 at UNT 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:24UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:06MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 25, down 1
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:48UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 44, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:18UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 27, down 6
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:49UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:14UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:05MTSU 4th & 6 at UNT 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−7.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:05UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:29MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 42, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:26UNT 4th & 8 at MTSU 9, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−4.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:30MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 9, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:17UNT 4th & 4 at MTSU 45, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:21UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:14MTSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:57UNT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:46MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
19 plays · 87 yds · 7:3910% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 5 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
10.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kenny BuyersSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+20
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 20 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
10.4%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
10.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 9 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-10
10.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Raynard Felton for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
50
+17
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 17 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 5 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
10.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
10.4%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+11
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 11 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-9
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 1 yd to the MTnSt 10 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (Elex Woodworth) to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 19
OPP 20
0
10.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian Goree, broken up by Michael MinterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 20
+7
10.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 7 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+11
10.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Michael Minter) to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
15.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
15.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (James Gray) to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
15.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
15.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
15.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie James, broken up by James GraySimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
15.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
16.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
16.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 2 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
15.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
15.7%
Eric Keena punt for 68 yds, downed at the MTnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FG
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:2282% → 80%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
17.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
17.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+15
17.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 15 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-9
17.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 19
OWN 23
+4
17.7%
Brent Stockstill run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+11
17.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 11 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
17.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 7 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
17.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 11 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
17.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 12 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
16.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
19.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+16
20.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 16 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
19.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 12:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
20.1%
Canon Rooker 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
20.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 16Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
20.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Justin AkinsSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 12
OWN 16
-10
19.9%
Mason Fine sacked by Dontavious Heard for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 6Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 22
OWN 6
+15
19.6%
Eric Keena punt for 51 yds , Richie James returns for 15 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:5480% → 77%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
20.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+15
20.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Chad Davis) to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
19.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
20.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 5 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+5
20.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
19.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
19.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
20.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 10
OPP 12
-5
21.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+34
22.9%
Canon Rooker 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
22.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
22.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 8 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+10
22.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 10 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
23.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 14 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
24.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kenny BuyersSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
23.9%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd to the NoTex 49Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
23.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
22.4%
Eric Keena punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
24.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
24.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-1
24.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
25.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 35 yds, downed at the NoTex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Michael MinterSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
27.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+9
25.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 9 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+10
26.1%
Eric Keena punt for 50 yds , Richie James returns for 10 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:4973% → 84%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
27.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 2 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
27.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-5
28.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Carlos Johnson) to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+14
28.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 14 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
26.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 28 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
24.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
24.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Isiah Upton for 4 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+23
24.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Desmond Anderson for 23 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
24.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Isiah Upton for 7 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-3
24.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 11Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
16.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 11 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:3321% → 19%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
21.2%
Andrew Tucker run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 14
OWN 39
-10
18.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Elex Woodworth) to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 24
OWN 29
+17
18.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 17 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
19.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian Goree, broken up by Dontavious HeardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:3582% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete, broken up by Joshua WheelerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
18.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by James GraySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (James Gray) to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
18.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (Josh Chester) to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+11
18.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Desmond Anderson for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
17.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
17.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
18.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoTex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
19.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
19.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kenny BuyersSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+7
18.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 7 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+7
18.8%
Eric Keena punt for 60 yds , Richie James returns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0080% → 83%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
19.8%
Brent Stockstill run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
17.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
17.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
50
+4
17.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
17.4%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Kishawn McClain return for no gain to the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
23.2%
Mason Fine run for 4 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
23.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Willie RobinsonSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-5
22.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Sam Rice) to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
20.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Alex DaleSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
19.9%
Eric Keena punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 4:4880% → 92%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
20.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-3
20.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Isiah Upton for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+12
21.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jevontey Smith for 12 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
20.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (Jevontey Smith) to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+41
20.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 41 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
17.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 2 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-1
17.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+18
17.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 18 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
16.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie James, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
16.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+15
17.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (James Gray) to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
16.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
16.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
8.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
11.9%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
11.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Steven Rhodes for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 22 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Dee Baulkman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
11.5%
Eric Keena punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:3691% → 95%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
9.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
9.3%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+35
9.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 35 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
8.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 16 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
8.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
7.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the NoTex 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
7.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
5.0%
Canon Rooker 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
8.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 3 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
8.9%
Mason Fine sacked by Chris Melton for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
8.6%
Eric Keena punt for 49 yds, downed at the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
4.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
3.9%
Terelle West run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-5
3.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
4.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
4.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+3
4.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 33 yds , Kenny Buyers returns for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 63 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
4.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 1 yd to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
4.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+43
4.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 43 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
6.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 4 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
6.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Daniel Khan for 4 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+9
6.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
6.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
6.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Willie RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
6.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Willie Robinson, broken up by Charvarius WardSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 8
OPP 9
0
5.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Dontavious HeardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
3.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Ty Lee) to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+5
3.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+4
3.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 5
OWN 14
-5
3.2%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Dee Baulkman and Joshua Wheeler for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 10
OWN 9
+2
3.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 44 yds , Turner Smiley returns for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 51 yds · 2:203% → 8%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
3.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
3.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
3.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffrey Wilson, broken up by D.J. SandersSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+5
3.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 5 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
3.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Daniel Khan for 8 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
3.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+14
3.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Alex Dale) to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
3.7%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
3.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kenny BuyersSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+16
3.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 16 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
7.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
0.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 46 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 68 yds · 1:392% → 1%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.1%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
2.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
50
+6
2.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+16
2.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 16 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
2.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Daniel Khan for 12 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
2.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 9 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
0.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
0.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:14
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q2 0:36
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 11 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q1 7:21
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com