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MRSH

Marshall 27 at Pittsburgh 43

PITT
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:17 · Kaare Vedvik punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+31.3Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:50: Maurice Ffrench run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +3.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:20: Anthony Anderson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:47: Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 83 yds for a TD, (Chase Litton intercepted ) — MRSH win probability +3.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:01: Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +20.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:04: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 54 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
  1. Q1 11:17MRSH 4th & 1 at PITT 47, down 6
    Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:03MRSH 4th & 12 at PITT 37, down 13
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:50MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00PITT 4th & 1 at MRSH 29, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13PITT 4th & 1 at MRSH 1, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:10MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 25, down 20
    Close callPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:10PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:06MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 41, down 20
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:11MRSH 4th & 1 at PITT 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.4%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:30PITT 4th & 2 at MRSH 2, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:47PITT 4th & 5 at MRSH 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:00MRSH 4th & 24 at MRSH 11, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:17PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:03PITT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:50PITT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:53PITT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:12MRSH Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:20MRSH Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:01MRSH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:04PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4383% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.0%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+35
83.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 35 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
83.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Marsh 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
83.0%
Quadree Henderson run for 7 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
83.0%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
83.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 17 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.9%
George Aston run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
82.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
82.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 8 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
82.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 2 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
82.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 6 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
82.3%
Tony Pittman run for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
82.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 3:2282% → 86%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
82.4%
James Conner run for 12 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
82.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 23 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
82.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jaymar Parrish for 8 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
82.8%
Quadree Henderson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+34
82.8%
Quadree Henderson run for 34 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.8%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+44
84.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 44 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
83.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
83.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-10
83.5%
Chase Litton sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
84.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 33 yds, downed at the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 96 yds · 1:5485% → 90%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+41
85.4%
Chawntez Moss run for 41 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
85.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+21
85.8%
Chawntez Moss run for 21 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
85.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 11 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Rodney Allen) to the Marsh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
89.6%
Maurice Ffrench run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.7%
Tony Pittman run for 1 yd to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
89.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Josh KnightSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+57
89.8%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 42 yds, downed at the PITTSBURGH 32 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:4790% → 94%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
89.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah (JACKSON, Chris), PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (JACKSON, Chris) 15 yards to the MARSHALL38, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
89.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
89.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 4 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
89.7%
Chawntez Moss run for 1 yd to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
89.5%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
89.9%
Tre Tipton run for 5 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+21
89.9%
Tre Tipton run for 21 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
91.9%
George Aston rush for 1 yard to the MARSHALL0, clock 11:10, PENALTY UP holding (Qadree Ollison) 10 yards to the MARSHALL11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
91.9%
Quadree Henderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
91.9%
Nathan Peterman run for 3 yds to the Marsh 5Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.7%
Nathan Peterman run for 4 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
94.2%
Nathan Peterman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+14
92.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 14 yds to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
92.4%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
92.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+6
92.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 6 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
94.6%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to James ConnerSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
94.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree Henderson, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+7
94.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 39 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 7 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
92.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Raylen Elzy for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 32Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+2
92.9%
Tony Pittman run for 2 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+7
92.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 7 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
92.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:3095% → 98%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
95.2%
Chawntez Moss run for 7 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
95.2%
Chawntez Moss run for no gain to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+6
95.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 6 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
95.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 20 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
95.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah (JACKSON, Chris), PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (JACKSON, Chris) 15 yards to the MARSHALL33, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
95.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 17 yds to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
95.2%
Chawntez Moss run for 1 yd to the Marsh 15Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
98.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
98.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
98.2%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 5:482% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.4%
Anthony Anderson run for 9 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
98.2%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
98.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManus, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
98.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 3 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
98.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Terrish WebbSimilar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
99.1%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+8
99.0%
Keion Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.1%
Keion Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 6 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
99.0%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
99.0%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
95.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 15 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:524% → 11%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
95.9%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+4
95.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+9
95.8%
Keion Davis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
95.6%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+4
95.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
95.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+9
96.7%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to KNIGHT, Josh, PENALTY UP pass interference (Bam Bradley) 9 yards to the UP18, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
96.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Josh Knight for 7 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
88.6%
Anthony Anderson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:5092% → 95%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
92.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 42 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
93.0%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-2
93.0%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 32Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+10
92.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree Henderson, QB hurry by DURANT, Davon, QB hurry by THOMPSON, Gary, PENALTY MARSHALL holding (JACKSON, Chris) 10 yards to the MARSHALL22, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
93.0%
Quadree Henderson run for 7 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+8
93.0%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
93.0%
James Conner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 12Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
92.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
92.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 10 yds to the Marsh 2Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
95.4%
Chris Blewitt 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 0:436% → 9%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
94.3%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+83
90.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 83 yds for a TD, (Chase Litton intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
89.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 5 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
89.5%
Chawntez Moss run for 2 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+7
89.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Chawntez Moss for 7 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
90.1%
Chawntez Moss run for 10 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.2%
Tre Tipton run for no gain to the Marsh 49Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
90.1%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+10
89.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 10 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
90.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 2 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
90.3%
Chawntez Moss run for 3 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
90.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
89.4%
Ryan Winslow pass incomplete to George Aston, broken up by Davon DurantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:028% → 30%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
92.5%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to KNIGHT, Josh, PENALTY UP pass interference (Terrish Webb) 15 yards to the MARSHALL48, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
92.2%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 8
50
+6
91.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 6 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
91.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 3 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
91.7%
Anthony Anderson run for no gain to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+16
92.2%
Keion Davis run for 16 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
90.6%
Keion Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
90.6%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
90.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Michael Clark for 14 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.6%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.9%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5783% → 97%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.6%
Quadree Henderson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
83.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
81.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 9 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.2%
George Aston run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
84.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 3 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+54
96.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 54 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20INT TD
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:043% → 1%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael Clark, broken up by Ryan LewisSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-14
97.1%
Chase Litton sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 14 yards to the Marsh 11Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 24
OWN 11
+33
99.2%
Chase Litton pass intercepted for a TD Avonte Maddox return for 33 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:01
Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
-20.7
TD · Q3 5:20
Anthony Anderson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q4 1:04
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 54 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com