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USM

Southern Miss 34 at UTEP 7

UTEP
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:52 · Alan Luna punt for 69 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 3 yds to the SoMis 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Home team on offense−15.9Pregame prior−12.9Score differential−8.2Garbage-time factor−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:39: Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +4.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:57: Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +8.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:30: Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +11.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:01: Zack Greenlee pass intercepted for a TD Curtis Mikell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +10.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:01: SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the UTEP 3 — USM win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 9 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:20USM 4th & 12 at UTEP 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:32USM 4th & 6 at UTEP 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37USM 4th & 5 at UTEP 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 13 at UTEP 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:28USM 4th & 10 at USM 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19UTEP 4th & 17 at UTEP 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:04UTEP 4th & 28 at UTEP 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−3.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:52UTEP 4th & 22 at UTEP 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:59UTEP 4th & 6 at USM 43, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:55USM 4th & 2 at UTEP 49, up 31
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:49UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 26, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:01UTEP 4th & 1 at USM 22, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 2 at USM 30, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:01USM 4th & 6 at UTEP 29, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:01UTEP 4th & 4 at USM 27, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:14USM 4th & 1 at UTEP 26, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:37UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:39USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:57USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:30USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:01USM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:4074% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
26.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
26.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 15 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
26.0%
Nick Mullens sacked by Brian Madunezim for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+13
26.0%
George Payne run for 13 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+15
26.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 15 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
26.0%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
26.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+23
26.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 23 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
26.0%
Korey Robertson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+1
26.0%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the UTEP 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
26.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Julian AllenSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+34
28.5%
Parker Shaunfield 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
28.3%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
28.3%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-5
28.1%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 17Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
28.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+13
28.0%
Alan Luna punt for 48 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 13 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3972% → 71%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
28.4%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
28.6%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
29.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds, downed at the UTEP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4TD
2 plays · 93 yds · 0:4229% → 32%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+25
28.8%
Aaron Jones run for 25 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
31.8%
Aaron Jones run for 68 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.6%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
31.4%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
31.3%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
31.3%
Nick Mullens run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
30.8%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+18
30.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 18 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
30.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
30.7%
Tez Parks run for 5 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
30.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
31.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5335% → 34%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.6%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-10
34.7%
JONES,Aaron rush over left tackle for 15 yards to the USM49 (BRADLEY, Dylan), PENALTY UTEP holding 10 yards to the UTEP26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 26
0
34.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for no gain to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+6
34.3%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
33.9%
Alan Luna punt for 59 yds, downed at the SoMis 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
35.9%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+9
35.8%
Nick Mullens run for 9 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
35.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
35.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Sky LoganSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
36.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+42
36.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds , Terry Juniel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
37.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kavika Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 14
OWN 30
-3
37.2%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 17
OWN 27
0
36.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
35.9%
Alan Luna punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:0563% → 70%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
37.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 13 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
36.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 9 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
35.4%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
35.5%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Silas Firstley) to the UTEP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
34.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the UTEP 12Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
34.5%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
29.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -13 yds · 0:3532% → 32%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
32.5%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 28
OWN 12
+25
30.8%
Alan Luna punt for 41 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 25 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+8
32.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 8 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-15
33.7%
GREENLEE, Zack sideline pass complete to FREYTAG,Cole for 7 yards to the UTEP43, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (REDIX,Warren) 15 yards to the UTEP21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 19
OWN 21
-9
31.6%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Dylan Bradley and Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
23.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.6%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
24.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
23.9%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted Curtis Mikell return for no gain to the UTEP 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:4476% → 88%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
23.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 11 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
23.8%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+20
23.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 20 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
23.5%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the UTEP 3Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:5317% → 18%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
16.8%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 5Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+11
16.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for 11 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+20
16.9%
Aaron Jones run for 20 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
17.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 6 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
18.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the UTEP 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UTEP Aaron Jones , return for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
16.0%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
16.1%
GREENLEE, Zack sideline pass complete to PLINKE,Hayden for 26 yards to the USM44 (FOSTER, Devonta), PENALTY UTEP illegal motion 5 yards to the UTEP25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
15.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-10
15.6%
GREENLEE, Zack deep pass complete to JUNIEL,Terry for 26 yards to the USM49, PENALTY UTEP holding (GATEWOOD,Derron) 10 yards to the UTEP15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 22
OWN 15
0
15.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 22
OWN 15
+3
15.7%
Alan Luna punt for 69 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
14.1%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
14.0%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+12
13.4%
Allenzae Staggers run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line Allenzae Staggers fumbled, forced by Justin Rogers, recovered by UTEP Justin Rogers , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17INT TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 3:2516% → 7%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
15.8%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+33
16.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Cole Freytag for 33 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
16.7%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+8
16.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 8 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.2%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+100
6.9%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted for a TD Curtis Mikell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
2.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the UTEP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:553% → 2%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
2.9%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
2.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 10 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
3.0%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 11 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
3.2%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
3.2%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Jaquan White, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
3.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Eddie Sinegal, broken up by Trae CollinsSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
2.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Quadraiz Wadley, broken up by Dylan BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
1.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+9
1.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
1.6%
D.J. Thompson run for no gain to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
1.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.6%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden PlinkeSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
1.6%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
1.6%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Warren Redix, broken up by D'Nerius AntoineSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
1.6%
Alan Luna punt for 43 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 31 Allenzae Staggers fumbled, recovered by UTEP Devin CockrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:452% → 1%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
1.8%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Cole FreytagSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
1.8%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
1.0%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 9 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
1.0%
Darrin Laufasa run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:1199% → 99%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
0.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+7
0.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
0.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jerry Harris for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
0.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Terry Juniel at the UTEP 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.4%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Warren Redix, broken up by Deshadrick TrulySimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
0.4%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 33 Quadraiz Wadley fumbled, forced by Cameron Tom, recovered by SoMisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
0.4%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
0.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
0.5%
Parker Shaunfield 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyrone Nelson for 14 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.3%
Tyrone Nelson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+25
0.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 10 yds to the SOUMISS 48 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
0.4%
Tyrone Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+4
0.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Sterling Napier for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+4
0.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Warren Redix for 4 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
0.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Kent Taylor for no gain to the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
13 plays · 64 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
0.2%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-10
0.2%
SMITH, Ito rush left for 9 yards to the USM43 (ROGERS, Justin;USHER,Nick), PENALTY USM holding (FREEMAN, Wil) 10 yards to the USM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+10
0.2%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+3
0.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
0.2%
Ito Smith run for 28 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
0.2%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
0.2%
Parker Adamson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
0.2%
Parker Adamson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+9
0.2%
Tez Parks run for 9 yds to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
0.2%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the UTEP 15Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
0.2%
Tyre'oune Holmes run for 5 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+1
0.2%
Collin Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the UTEP 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:30
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q3 8:01
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted for a TD Curtis Mikell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 3:57
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com