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UNT

North Texas 42 at Rice 35

RICE
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:41 · Jack Fox punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoTex 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 141Pregame prior+6.9Home team on offense−2.0Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:27: Jeffrey Wilson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +20.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:31: Willy Ivery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +30.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:34: Darik Dillard 1 Yd Run (Tyler Stehling Pass to Robby Wells III for Two-Point Conversion) — RICE win probability +43.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Darik Dillard 3 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick) — RICE win probability +18.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 00:00 — UNT win probability +42.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:31UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:21UNT 4th & 30 at UNT 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:11UNT 4th & 1 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.9%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:46RICE 4th & 17 at RICE 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00UNT 4th & 16 at RICE 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:47RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:23UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 30, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:35RICE 4th & 4 at UNT 19, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−7.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:41RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:27UNT 4th & 2 at RICE 49, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.5%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 15 at UNT 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−1.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:31RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:15UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:34UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−10.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:17RICE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:02RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:28UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:45UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:27UNT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:31UNT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−1.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:34RICE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    36.8%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 5:2971% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 10 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
70.8%
Tyler Stehling run for 5 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+21
70.8%
Darik Dillard run for 21 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
70.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 2 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
70.8%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
70.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Fred Scott) to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
70.8%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
70.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Parker Smith for 4 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-2
70.8%
Darik Dillard run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+17
70.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Lance Wright for 17 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
70.8%
RICE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
70.8%
Tyler Stehling run for 3 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
70.8%
Tyler Stehling run for 2 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
70.8%
Nate German sacked by Nate Brooks for a loss of 15 yards to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 0
OPP 24
+40
70.6%
Hayden Tobola 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
70.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffrey WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
70.7%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
70.9%
Eric Keena punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 5:2170% → 74%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
70.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
70.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Jowan Davis for 6 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
70.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
70.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 4 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
70.6%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
70.4%
Tyler Stehling run for 6 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
70.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darrion Pollard for 7 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+3
70.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 3 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
70.8%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
70.8%
Jowan Davis run for no gain to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
70.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
70.9%
Jowan Davis run for 14 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
71.0%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darrion Pollard for a loss of 2 yards Darrion Pollard fumbled, forced by Ashton Preston, recovered by Rice Darrion PollardSimilar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+8
70.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Robby Wells III for 8 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
73.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Lance Wright for 14 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -20 yds · 0:5627% → 26%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
72.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-10
73.0%
Mason Fine sacked by Preston Gordon for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 22
OWN 20
-8
73.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Graysen Schantz for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 12 Mason Fine fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 30
OWN 12
0
73.7%
Eric Keena punt for 50 yds, downed at the Rice 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:2273% → 82%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
73.4%
Austin Walter run for 6 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
73.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, IS (5 Yards) to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
73.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
73.6%
Austin Walter run for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+29
73.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 29 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
73.9%
RICE Penalty, false start (Parker Smith) to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
74.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+11
73.9%
Tyler Stehling run for 11 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
73.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Robby Wells III, broken up by James GraySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+5
73.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Jareid Combs) to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.2%
Nate German run for no gain to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
74.2%
Nate German pass complete to Jowan Davis for 6 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.2%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3419% → 29%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.7%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
80.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+32
81.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 32 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
79.3%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
79.8%
Willy Ivery run for 15 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
78.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 31Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
79.5%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+15
80.1%
Mason Fine run for 15 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
71.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
73.9%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 22Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+18
73.6%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 18 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
75.0%
Tyler Stehling run for 11 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
75.3%
Austin Walter run for 9 yds to the NoTex 41 Austin Walter fumbled, forced by Joshua Wheeler, recovered by NoTex Joshua WheelerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
73.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 5 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
73.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
73.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 1
50
0
74.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
50
0
76.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Darrion PollardSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
50
0
76.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 10
50
-7
75.1%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Ashton Preston for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
73.8%
Jack Fox punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
75.5%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
74.9%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
75.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 4 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
74.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 12 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
74.3%
Mason Fine sacked by Myles Adams for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 28 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by Rice Emmanuel Ellerbee , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11INT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
77.3%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
77.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoTex 21Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-10
77.3%
RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-2
77.1%
Nate German pass complete to Zach Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 15
OPP 33
-5
76.0%
RICE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 20
OPP 38
0
75.9%
Tyler Stehling pass intercepted Kishawn McClain return for no gain to the NoTex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 1:4623% → 38%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
77.1%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+75
77.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 75 yds to the Rice 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
73.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the Rice 5Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
73.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the Rice 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the Rice 1Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.4%
Tyler Stehling run for 11 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
69.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 27 yds Zach Wright fumbled, forced by Kishawn McClain, recovered by NoTex Kishawn McClainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2533% → 30%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
66.9%
Mason Fine run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
50
0
64.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to O'Keeron RutherfordSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
50
-6
65.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Andrew Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 16
OWN 44
0
70.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to O'Keeron RutherfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
66.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
50
+9
64.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
65.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
65.1%
Mason Fine sacked by Emmanuel Ellerbee for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 45
-10
67.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 45
+8
67.9%
Mason Fine run for 8 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
68.8%
Eric Keena punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
69.1%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
69.4%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the Rice 27Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
68.3%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
67.8%
Jack Fox punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoTex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
67.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
67.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+9
68.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 9 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+4
68.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+1
69.3%
Eric Keena punt for 43 yds , V.J. Banks returns for 1 yd to the Rice 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:2069% → 75%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
69.4%
Jowan Davis run for 18 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
71.6%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
71.7%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+24
71.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Lance Wright for 24 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
73.0%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
73.0%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
71.9%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Lance Wright, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
75.5%
Hayden Tobola 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
74.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Garner) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
57.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4662% → 55%
Q3 7:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
61.6%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.8%
Tyler Stehling run for 9 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.3%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-2
62.3%
Tyler Stehling sacked by T.J. Tauaalo for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 38Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
56.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
55.1%
Jack Fox punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
54.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, personal foul (Preston Gordon) to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
51.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Tabari McGaskeySimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
52.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
50
+1
50.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the Rice 49Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
52.9%
Eric Keena punt for 39 yds, fair catch by V.J. Banks at the Rice 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22PUNT
16 plays · 47 yds · 2:3855% → 51%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
55.4%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Darrion PollardSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
55.0%
Darik Dillard run for 7 yds to the Rice 17Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+5
53.4%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
55.6%
Austin Walter run for 4 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+11
55.9%
Nate German run for 11 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
57.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 4 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
59.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
56.0%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
54.6%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
58.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Parker Smith for 9 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
58.9%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
58.9%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
58.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-10
58.3%
RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (Peter Godber) to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
53.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Darrion Pollard, broken up by Kishawn McClainSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
50.8%
Jack Fox punt for 29 yds, downed at the NoTex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:4451% → 88%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
49.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for 3 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+10
49.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 10 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
47.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 26 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
43.3%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 47 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Mason FineSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+6
47.1%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+35
45.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 35 yds to the Rice 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
40.8%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 16Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+15
42.3%
Mason Fine run for 15 yds to the Rice 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.8%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.0%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 5 yds to the Rice 30 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (Nate German) to the Rice 20Similar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
18.7%
Darik Dillard run for 8 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
19.4%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
18.0%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
16.8%
Jack Fox punt for 55 yds, downed at the NoTex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
11.5%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-6
11.9%
Mason Fine sacked by Blain Padgett and Carl Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+13
12.9%
Willy Ivery run for 13 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 6
OWN 21
-4
13.1%
Eric Keena punt for 49 yds , V.J. Banks returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2715% → 65%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
14.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 18 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
17.3%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the Rice 45Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
17.0%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 7 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
18.5%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
19.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach Wright, broken up by T.J. TauaaloSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+41
18.2%
Tyler Stehling run for 41 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.3%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.9%
Darik Dillard 1 Yd Run (Tyler Stehling Pass to Robby Wells III for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0053% → 47%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
46.8%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
43.9%
Andrew Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-10
44.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Elex Woodworth) to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
52.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian Goree, broken up by D Angelo EllisSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
53.5%
Eric Keena punt for 49 yds, fair catch by V.J. Banks at the Rice 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
55.8%
Tyler Stehling run for no gain to the Rice 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 29TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Nate German for 7 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
62.3%
Tyler Stehling run for 2 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
59.4%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
64.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Parker Smith for 8 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.2%
Darik Dillard 3 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 30TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.5%
Jeffrey Wilson 5 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.3%
Willy Ivery 4 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 32DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 23%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Darik Dillard, broken up by Calvin MinorSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
24.0%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 8 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
25.8%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the NoTex 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-2
23.2%
Darik Dillard run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:34
Darik Dillard 1 Yd Run (Tyler Stehling Pass to Robby Wells III for Two-Point Conversion)
+43.6
TD · OT 0:00
Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 00:00
-42.7
TD · Q4 7:31
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-30.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com