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LOU

Louisville 59 at Marshall 28

MRSH
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:32 · Mason King punt for 37 yds, downed at the Marsh 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior−43.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:10: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:02: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 30 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:36: Garet Morrell pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 16 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:02: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:33: Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:32LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:21MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:26LOU 4th & 12 at MRSH 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:30MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:47MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:26LOU 4th & 1 at MRSH 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.6
    86% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:36MRSH 4th & 6 at LOU 35, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.2
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:12MRSH 4th & 12 at LOU 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−<0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:33MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:37MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:34LOU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:01LOU 4th & 6 at MRSH 22, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:15MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 30, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:36LOU 4th & 1 at MRSH 10, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:58MRSH 4th & 1 at LOU 25, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:57LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:10LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:02LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:14LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:36MRSH Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:02LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:33LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:19LOU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:40MRSH Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:36LOU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:41MRSH Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2894% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
6.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
6.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
6.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-8
6.5%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Chase Hancock for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
6.7%
Mason King punt for 37 yds, downed at the Marsh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:407% → 7%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
6.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 1 yd to the Marsh 32Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
6.9%
Hyleck Foster run for 8 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-5
7.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Fedrice Binot) to the Marsh 35Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
7.2%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
7.2%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 0:5593% → 93%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
7.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+8
7.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
7.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 71 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:367% → 7%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
7.2%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
7.2%
Garet Morrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-5
7.3%
Garet Morrell sacked by Drew Bailey and Zykiesis Cannon for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 22Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 15
OWN 22
-4
7.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 46 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 18 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:5593% → 91%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
7.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+16
7.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 16 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
7.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
7.5%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
7.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
7.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 10 yds to the MARSHALL 43 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (Cole Hikutini) to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+13
7.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 13 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+21
7.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
8.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
8.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-1
8.2%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
8.6%
Blanton Creque 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:569% → 9%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
8.7%
Tony Pittman run for 4 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
8.9%
Tony Pittman run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
9.1%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Josh Knight for 1 yd to the Marsh 35Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+18
9.0%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 45 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 18 yds to the MARSHALL 47 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (Devante Peete) to the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:5091% → 91%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
9.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 26 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
8.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
8.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
8.9%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Terry Richardson return for 6 yds to the Marsh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:539% → 10%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
9.4%
Hyleck Foster run for 1 yd to the Marsh 12Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+14
9.5%
Hyleck Foster run for 14 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
9.7%
Hyleck Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
9.8%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Marsh 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
9.7%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+24
9.6%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the MARSHALL 36 MARSHALL Penalty, Personal Foul (Kendall Gant) to the Marsh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:3791% → 92%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
9.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
9.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
9.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 9 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 1
OPP 12
0
9.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Marsh 12Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
9.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+3
10.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Marsh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
9.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q2 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
9.8%
Traveon Samuel run for 1 yd to the Marsh 8Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
7.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:249% → 9%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
8.6%
Tony Pittman run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 5
50
+4
8.7%
Tony Pittman run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+7
8.7%
Garet Morrell run for 7 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
8.7%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
8.8%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
8.8%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
8.8%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 23 yds, downed at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 3:3492% → 95%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
8.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 12Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
8.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+12
8.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 12 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
8.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
8.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+25
8.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 10 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
7.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 11 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
7.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
7.9%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete, PENALTY MARSHALL holding (Davis, George) 10 yards to the MARSHALL28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
7.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
7.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Marsh 30Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+30
4.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 30 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:146% → 6%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 4 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
5.7%
Hyleck Foster run for no gain to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
5.6%
Garet Morrell sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 15 yards to the Marsh 8 Garet Morrell fumbled, forced by James Hearns, recovered by Lvile Stacy Thomas , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3496% → 96%
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
4.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14FUMBLE
12 plays · 37 yds · 1:582% → 1%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.2%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+29
2.1%
Tony Pittman run for 14 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Chucky Williams) to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.3%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
2.2%
Tony Pittman run for 10 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
2.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (AJ Addison) to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+3
2.6%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
2.4%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
2.1%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Keion Davis for no gain to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+29
1.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 29 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 14 Jaire Alexander fumbled, recovered by Marsh Chase HancockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:362% → 9%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
1.5%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Donquell Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+16
8.8%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 16 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:3495% → 98%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+33
5.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 33 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
4.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 9 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+19
4.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 19 yds to the Marsh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:212% → 3%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
2.4%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
2.4%
Hyleck Foster run for 7 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-13
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Marsh 15Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 16
OWN 15
0
2.8%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:0098% → 99%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+36
2.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 36 yds to the Marsh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
1.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:441% → 1%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
1.2%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
1.2%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Emanuel Byrd for 4 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+2
1.2%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
1.2%
Davis, Keion rush for loss of 3 yards to the MARSHALL35, PENALTY MARSHALL personal foul 15 yards to the MARSHALL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+5
1.1%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Josh Knight for 5 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+12
1.0%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Raylen Elzy for 12 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:0399% → 99%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
1.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
0.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
0.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
50
0
0.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
50
0
0.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 10
50
0
0.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 10
50
0
1.2%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keion Davis at the Marsh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
0.9%
Anthony Anderson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+7
0.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 7 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
0.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
0.8%
Anthony Anderson run for no gain to the Marsh 27Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
0.7%
Garet Morrell pass intercepted Devonte Fields return for no gain to the Marsh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
0.6%
Seth Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
0.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
0.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
0.9%
Blanton Creque 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:391% → 0%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.5%
Anthony Anderson run for no gain to the Marsh 24Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
0.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Jordan Dowrey) to the Marsh 19Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+11
0.4%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Michael Clark for 11 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
0.4%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Michael ClarkSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
0.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 47 yds, downed at the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+32
0.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 32 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
0.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 16
OWN 49
+51
0.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 51 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:310% → 0%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.3%
Garet Morrell pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
0.3%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.3%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 4
OWN 0
+33
0.3%
Kaare Vedvik run for 5 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST down. LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 yards) to the Lvile 49. 1ST DOWN MARSHALLSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
0.3%
Morrell, Garet pass incomplete to Mathews, Nick, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.3%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+20
0.3%
Keion Davis run for 20 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.3%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Lvile 12Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.3%
Garet Morrell pass complete to Keion Davis for 12 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
0.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Josh Harvey-Clemons) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
0.5%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain Jeremy Smith fumbled, forced by Chase Hancock, recovered by Marsh Ty Tyler, Ty Tyler return for 26 yds for a TD (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 6:49100% → 100%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
0.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
0.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 5 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
0.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
0.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
0.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+6
0.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
0.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 2 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
0.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
0.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
0.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
0.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+3
0.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Marsh 10Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+10
0.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-15
0.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tobijah Hughley) to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 29TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+3
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 9 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
0.1%
Garet Morrell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Alphonso Carter) to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.1%
Tony Pittman run for 13 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
Malin Jones run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
0.1%
Malin Jones run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+50
0.1%
Malik Williams run for 50 yds to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
0.1%
Malik Williams run for 4 yds to the Marsh 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:36
Garet Morrell pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 16 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 5:02
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 30 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q2 11:10
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com