Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 34 at Middle Tennessee 38

MTSU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.8MTSU 29.9%Canon Rooker 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 17 · Q3 1:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:30 · Canon Rooker 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior+5.1Home team on offense−13.0Score differential−6.7Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:15: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +24.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:11: I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +23.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 6:58: I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +37.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:56: Kam McKnight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +39.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:36: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 23 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +44.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:07LT 4th & 10 at LT 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:39LT 4th & 7 at MTSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:31LT 4th & 3 at MTSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 10:42MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:31MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:00LT 4th & 4 at MTSU 32, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00MTSU 4th & 10 at LT 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 1 at MTSU 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−3.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−9.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:40LT 4th & 1 at LT 38, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:30MTSU 4th & 3 at LT 16, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00LT 4th & 9 at MTSU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:11LT 4th & 18 at LT 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−7.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:55LT 4th & 6 at MTSU 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−6.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−20.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:54LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:34MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:20LT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:15LT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:40MTSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:11MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:58MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:56LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−1.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:36MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
68.7%
Brent Stockstill run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-4
68.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-5
68.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 38
0
68.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+1
68.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 1 yd to the LaTch 39 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the LaTch 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:4731% → 32%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+22
68.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 22 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
67.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 70 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
67.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 7 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
67.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
67.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
67.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
67.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
66.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
66.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
67.0%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
67.1%
Gerald Shouse punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5FUMBLE
12 plays · 79 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
66.3%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
66.3%
Ryan Higgins run for no gain to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+23
66.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Conner Smith for 23 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Conner Smith, broken up by Justin AkinsSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
66.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 11 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
65.9%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
66.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, IS (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
65.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 17 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
65.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+18
65.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 18 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
65.8%
Bobby Holly run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 6 Bobby Holly fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Michael MinterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
64.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+13
64.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
64.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
64.5%
Terelle West run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
64.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
64.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 38 yds, downed at the LaTch 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0237% → 37%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
63.0%
Ryan Higgins run for 16 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
62.5%
Carlos Henderson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
62.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
62.3%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
62.8%
Gerald Shouse punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:5463% → 69%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
63.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+36
63.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 36 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
64.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 4 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
64.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 5 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+38
68.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 38 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9FG
19 plays · 79 yds · 6:0334% → 37%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
66.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
66.4%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+12
66.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
66.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
66.4%
Ryan Higgins run for 5 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+6
66.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 6 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
65.0%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
64.7%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
64.8%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
64.6%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+9
64.5%
Boston Scott run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
64.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
64.2%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+24
65.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 14 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Jeremy Cutrer) to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by D.J. SandersSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
64.1%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.6%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
62.6%
Jonathan Barnes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
68.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 4 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
68.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
67.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
63.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
63.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ricky Blair for 7 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+7
63.4%
Brent Stockstill run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
64.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
64.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-1
65.1%
Terelle West run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
63.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 53 yds, downed at the LaTch 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:4138% → 48%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
61.7%
Ryan Higgins run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+11
61.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 11 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
61.6%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
60.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Kam McKnight for 9 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+3
60.0%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Kam McKnight, broken up by Alex DaleSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
61.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
59.3%
Jarred Craft run for 22 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
58.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Boston Scott for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
58.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 1 yd to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
59.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
52.0%
Jonathan Barnes 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
55.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 8 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+11
57.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 11 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
57.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 13 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
58.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
58.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Desmond AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
57.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Prince SamSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
55.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ricky BlairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:5351% → 63%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
49.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
48.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
48.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 24 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
47.4%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+4
47.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 4 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+17
37.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 17 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0742% → 41%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
41.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
40.8%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:4562% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.4%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
38.4%
HIGGINS, Ryan pass incomplete to SMITH, Alfred, PENALTY MT personal foul 15 yards to the LATECH36, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
37.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Marlon Watts for 11 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
36.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 17 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
36.5%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
36.3%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
36.9%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
38.3%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
36.3%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
36.3%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+9
36.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
12.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3519% → 34%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
18.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
20.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 24 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
21.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+37
34.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 37 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
28.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
28.4%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
27.0%
Ryan Higgins run for no gain to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+7
28.3%
Gerald Shouse punt for 52 yds , Terelle West returns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:5931% → 30%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
31.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Ronald LewisSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+14
30.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 14 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
31.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
31.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 3 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+10
31.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 10 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
32.9%
Brent Stockstill run for 6 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-2
34.1%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+25
32.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 25 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
35.5%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
35.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Desmond Anderson for 2 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+2
33.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 2 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
29.9%
Canon Rooker 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:3071% → 72%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
28.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Kam McKnight for 13 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
26.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
26.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
25.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-5
25.1%
Ryan Higgins sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 43 Ryan Higgins fumbled, recovered by LaTch Ryan Higgins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
25.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
28.4%
Gerald Shouse punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:3325% → 54%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
25.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+29
25.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 29 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
27.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 13 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
29.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
29.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ricky BlairSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+10
28.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 10 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
31.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 31Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+24
30.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 24 yds to the LaTch 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
53.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0059% → 54%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
41.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Shaquille HuffSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
41.8%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-5
41.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Trent Taylor) to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 11
OWN 32
-7
43.9%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Steven Rhodes and Chris Melton for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 25Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 18
OWN 25
0
46.0%
Gerald Shouse punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:3547% → 83%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
47.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 20 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
49.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
51.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+9
46.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 9 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
48.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
48.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+14
45.2%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to SMITH, Patrick (NOLAND, C.), PENALTY LATECH pass interference (NOLAND, C.) 14 yards to the LATECH3, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:0232% → 82%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
68.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
65.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 9 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
61.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
62.8%
Kam McKnight run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
50
+30
61.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 30 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
57.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 17 yds to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
57.3%
Kam McKnight run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.1%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2035% → 88%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
34.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+33
39.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 33 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
44.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
88.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 23 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 59 yds · 1:4128% → 21%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
72.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 28 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
67.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
67.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Marcus Gaines, broken up by Michael MinterSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+15
72.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 15 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
66.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Steven RhodesSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+13
67.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Rhashid Bonnette, broken up by Michael MinterSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
66.2%
Ryan Higgins run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Jarred Craft, broken up by Chris MeltonSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
79.3%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Rhashid Bonnette, broken up by Michael MinterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
93.3%
Brent Stockstill run for no gain to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-1
93.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:36
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 23 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
+44
TD · Q4 3:56
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-39.3
TD · Q4 6:58
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
+37.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com