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UCF

UCF 53 at Florida International 14

FIU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:15 · Tristan Payton punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense−30.1Score differential−24.7Pregame prior−10.0Garbage-time factor−8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:27: Anthony Jones run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +4.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:47: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 21 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:42: Matthew Wright 20 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +2.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:50: Dontravious Wilson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +11.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:36: Dontravious Wilson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +8.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:05FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:47FIU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 8
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:40UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 2, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:42UCF 4th & 2 at FIU 2, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−6.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:50FIU 4th & 20 at UCF 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:28FIU 4th & 12 at FIU 32, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 25, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 13 at UCF 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−2.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:04FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 33, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:49FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 39
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:30UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 22, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:07FIU 4th & 5 at UCF 49, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:42UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 20, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:34FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 38, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:05UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:27FIU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:47UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:50UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:36UCF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:04UCF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:49UCF Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:23UCF Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:30FIU Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:5569% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
31.1%
Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
31.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
31.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 13 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
31.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
31.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
31.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+37
31.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 37 yds to the FlaIn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
31.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
31.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Patti pass to Jordan Franks for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.1%
Maurice Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
31.1%
Alex Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+3
31.0%
Maurice Alexander run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
31.0%
Stone Wilson punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
31.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
31.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
31.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+17
31.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds , Thomas Owens returns for 17 yds to the FlaIn 39 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, IB (10 Yards) to the FlaIn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
31.5%
Alex Gardner run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
31.7%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 2
50
0
31.6%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 2
50
0
31.4%
Stone Wilson punt for 49 yds, downed at the UCF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
31.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+5
31.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 5 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 9
-5
31.5%
HAMILTON, Jawon rush for 6 yards to the UCF15 (ALBURY, I.;SPENCE, S.), PENALTY UCF illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 4
-2
31.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+35
31.6%
Tristan Payton punt for 39 yds , Thomas Owens returns for 35 yds to the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
35.8%
Anthony Jones run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4065% → 70%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
34.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 9 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+9
34.0%
Adrian Killins run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
33.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 15 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
33.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
33.6%
Jaquarius Bargnare run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
33.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
33.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jaquarius BargnareSimilar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
33.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 21Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
30.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 21 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
31.3%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Joey Connors for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+2
31.1%
Anthony Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-4
30.7%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
30.4%
Stone Wilson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:0470% → 72%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
30.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 11 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
30.0%
Jawon Hamilton run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+1
29.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
29.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
29.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Treyvon Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+9
30.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+10
30.7%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to FRANKS, Jordan, QB hurry by WILLIAMS, T., PENALTY FIU holding 10 yards to the FIU24, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
29.7%
WILSON, Dont. rush for 10 yards to the FIU14 (LEWIS, Sage), PENALTY UCF holding 5 yards to the FIU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+11
29.7%
Adrian Killins run for 11 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+13
29.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds to the FlaIn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the FlaIn 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
29.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
30.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 2Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
27.7%
Matthew Wright 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
28.8%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
28.6%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
28.0%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 11 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
29.1%
Maurice Alexander pass intercepted Drico Johnson return for 25 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
17.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
20.7%
Maurice Alexander run for 10 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
21.0%
Anthony Jones run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
21.6%
Anthony Jones run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
21.9%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 5
50
0
21.9%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 5
50
+18
21.7%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 18 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
22.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
21.7%
Maurice Alexander run for no gain to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
21.5%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by D.J. KillingsSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 20
OPP 42
0
21.2%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
21.1%
Stone Wilson punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:4783% → 93%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
17.1%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Treyvon Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+60
16.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins for 60 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
16.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 18 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
7.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:087% → 6%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.5%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
6.5%
Alex Gardner run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
6.7%
Maurice Alexander run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
6.6%
Maurice Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
6.6%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Alex Gardner for 1 yd to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-3
6.5%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Mark Rucker for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
5.6%
Stone Wilson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0695% → 95%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
5.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jaquarius Bargnare for 2 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-1
5.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-6
5.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Jermaine Sheriff for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Tristan Payton punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
3.7%
Anthony Jones run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.1%
Maurice Alexander run for no gain to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.1%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
4.1%
ALEXANDER, M. pass intercepted by GRIFFIN, Shqll at the FIU44, GRIFFIN, Shqll return to the FIU44, PENALTY UCF pass interference (GRIFFIN, Shqll) 15 yards to the FIU41, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
4.4%
Maurice Alexander run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+14
4.4%
Maurice Alexander run for 14 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
4.6%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Errol Clarke for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+1
4.0%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Austin Maloney for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+1
4.1%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
4.2%
Stone Wilson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:0197% → 98%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
2.9%
Adrian Killins run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
3.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
2.9%
Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
2.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
3.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+15
2.9%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to OLDHAM, Taylor, QB hurry by COLIMON, D., PENALTY FIU roughing passer (COLIMON, D.) 15 yards to the UCF39, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
2.1%
Adrian Killins run for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
2.7%
Austin Maloney run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by Joey ConnorsSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+8
2.6%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Alex Gardner for 8 yds Alex Gardner fumbled, forced by Titus Davis, recovered by FlaIn Alex GardnerSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
2.6%
Stone Wilson punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
50
+16
1.5%
Nick Patti run for 16 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
1.5%
Nick Patti pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 13 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
1.5%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+14
1.5%
C.J. Jones run for 14 yds to the FlaIn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.0%
C.J. Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthony Jones for 4 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
0.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 5 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+14
1.0%
Stone Wilson punt for 33 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 14 yds to the UCF 48 UCF Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:5999% → 100%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
1.0%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
0.9%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
0.9%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Hayden Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
0.9%
C.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
0.9%
C.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.9%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to C.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.9%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+29
0.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to D'erren Wilson for 29 yds to the FlaIn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
0.6%
C.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
0.6%
C.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
0.5%
Nick Patti run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.3%
Anthony Jones run for 12 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
0.3%
Anthony Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+19
0.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 19 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.4%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
0.3%
Alex Gardner run for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+23
0.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 23 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.4%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
0.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
0.3%
Michael Willett run for 5 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
0.3%
Michael Willett run for 3 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-5
0.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-5
0.3%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
0.4%
Pete DiNovo pass incomplete to D'erren WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
0.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
0.2%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 6
50
+1
0.2%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Austin Maloney, broken up by Maurice RussellSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+8
0.2%
Stone Wilson punt for 35 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 8 yds to the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
0.2%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-5
0.2%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-4
0.2%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+51
0.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the FLAINTL 39 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Maurice Alexander) to the FlaIn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
0.1%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
0.1%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-1
0.1%
Anthony Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 36 Anthony Jones fumbled, forced by T.J. Mutcherson,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
0.1%
Michael Willett run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
0.1%
Michael Willett run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+5
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
0.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-3
0.1%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:50
Dontravious Wilson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 3:36
Dontravious Wilson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q1 5:27
Anthony Jones run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com