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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:25 · Jahad Thomas run for 5 yds to the Charl 3 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (AJ McDonald) to the Charl 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:42: Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK) — CLT win probability +2.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:53: Jahad Thomas run for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +2.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:26: Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:34: Kalif Phillips run for 66 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK) — CLT win probability +2.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:37: Jahad Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 9:58TEM 4th & 9 at CLT 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%77% to makePunt94.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:52CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q1 8:52TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 46, up 3Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:46CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%average punt
- Q2 13:10TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.0%average punt
- Q2 10:59CLT 4th & 9 at TEM 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.132% to convertField goal8.0%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q2 9:33TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%average punt
- Q2 6:08CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 4:20CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 15, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q3 13:25TEM 4th & 2 at CLT 8, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.1%54% to convertField goal94.6%−0.590% to makePunt92.1%−3.0average punt
- Q3 8:31CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 40, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q3 5:08CLT 4th & 10 at midfield, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 12:52TEM 4th & 6 at CLT 13, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%85% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:35TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 30, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:34CLT 4th & 9 at TEM 9, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.125% to convertField goal0.1%89% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 0:42CLT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.2%97% to makeGo for two8.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:52TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:53TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26TEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40TEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:34CLT Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%97% to makeGo for two3.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:37TEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:14TEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:35CLT Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call0.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1FG14 plays · 58 yds · 5:0297% → 96%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
96.5%
Jahad Thomas run for 7 yds to the Temp 49 Jahad Thomas fumbled, forced by Brandon Banks, recovered by Temp Dion Dawkins for a 1ST down , return for 4 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
96.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 17 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
96.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 14 yds to the Charl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+7
96.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 7 yds to the Charl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
CLTDrive 4TD19 plays · 88 yds · 6:415% → 8%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
95.2%
PHILLIPS, Kalif rush for 3 yards to the CHAR15 (CHANDLER,Sean), PENALTY CHAR personal foul (DAVIS, Nate) 6 yards to the CHAR6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 16
OWN 6
0
95.2%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to T.L. Ford II, broken up by Freddie Booth-LloydSimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 5
OWN 17
+5
95.3%
HART, Arthur punt 31 yards to the CHAR48, CHANDLER,Sean return to the CHAR42 (COVINGTON, A.), PENALTY TEM roughing the kicker (WALLS, Benny) 5 yards to the CHAR22, 1ST DOWN CHAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
95.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 40 Kalif Phillips fumbled, forced by Sharif Finch, recovered by Charl Thomas La BiancaSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
95.1%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 28 yds to the Temp 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+12
95.1%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Kyle Hoffman for 12 yds to the Temp 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
95.0%
DUKE, Austin rush for no gain to the TEM14, out-of-bounds (MARSHALL,S.), PENALTY TEM personal foul (REDDICK,Haason) 7 yards to the TEM7, 1ST DOWN CHAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.0%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to T.L. Ford II, broken up by Delvon RandallSimilar
Q1 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
92.1%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD4 plays · 81 yds · 0:4292% → 94%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
92.4%
WALKER,Phillip pass incomplete to JONES,Randle, PENALTY CHAR pass interference (GEMMELL, Jeff) 15 yards to the TEM34, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
93.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 51 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 0:007% → 7%
TEMDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
CLTDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:138% → 8%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
92.2%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 9 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
91.3%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 46Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
91.5%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Austin Duke CHARLOTTE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+38
91.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 33 yds , Sean Chandler returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 45 TEMPLE Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) to the Temp 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+7
91.1%
Alex Starzyk punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 31 , Austin Duke returns for 7 yds to the Charl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FUMBLE3 plays · 2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 8:04
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+20
90.7%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 13 Kalif Phillips fumbled, recovered by Temp Praise Martin-Oguike , return for 20 yds to the Charl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11TD1 play · 13 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:457% → 7%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.2%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 3 yds to the Charl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13TD3 plays · 44 yds · 1:2994% → 97%
CLTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 4:20
4TH & 3
OWN 15
+11
95.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 42 yds , Jahad Thomas returns for 11 yds to the Charl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15TD6 plays · 46 yds · 2:2997% → 98%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
97.0%
Jahad Thomas run for 11 yds to the Charl 19 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Jeff Gemmell) to the Charl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.7%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for no gain to the Charl 9Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
96.7%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ryquell Armstead for 8 yds to the Charl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16END OF HALF6 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Mark Quattlebaum, broken up by Chapelle RussellSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.5%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 13 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
97.3%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
50
-11
97.3%
Kevin Olsen sacked by Romond Deloatch for a loss of 11 yards to the Charl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17TD5 plays · 78 yds · 1:262% → 4%
TEMDrive 18TD12 plays · 74 yds · 4:4896% → 99%
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-2
95.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 26Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+28
95.4%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 28 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
95.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 14 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+16
95.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 16 yds to the Charl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
95.8%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Isaiah Wright, broken up by Nick CookSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+7
95.4%
Jahad Thomas run for 5 yds to the Charl 3 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (AJ McDonald) to the Charl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:002% → 2%
TEMDrive 20TD4 plays · 66 yds · 2:0498% → 100%
CLTDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+28
99.7%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22FG11 plays · 71 yds · 5:22100% → 100%
CLTDrive 23TD15 plays · 79 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q4 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+15
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Juwan Foggie for 15 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Juwan Foggie, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.9%
OLSEN, Kevin pass incomplete to DUKE, Austin, PENALTY TEM personal foul (ELLIS,Avery) 9 yards to the TEM8, 1ST DOWN CHAR, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Freddie Johnson, broken up by Anthony CovingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25DOWNS13 plays · 76 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+10
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Justin Bolus for 10 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Uriah LeMay for 19 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 5 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to T.L. Ford II, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:26
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q3 8:37
Jahad Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 0:42
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)
-2.9