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TROY

Troy 37 at Southern Miss 31

USM
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-11.2USM 30.7%Ryan Kay 43 yd FG GOODAWAY 37 - HOME 31 · Q4 10:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:21 · Ryan Kay 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Pregame prior+5.3Home team on offense−16.7Garbage-time factor−6.0Score differential−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +14.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:38: Ito Smith run for 70 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +17.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:12: Jordan Chunn run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +16.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:28: Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +22.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 10:21: Ryan Kay 43 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +11.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 10 of 13TROY made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:51USM 4th & 9 at USM 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47TROY 4th & 2 at USM 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:24USM 4th & 5 at USM 27, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:22TROY 4th & 13 at USM 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:22USM 4th & 5 at USM 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:08TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:47USM 4th & 6 at TROY 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:39TROY 4th & 1 at USM 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:09USM 4th & 9 at USM 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:39TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:24USM 4th & 5 at USM 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:12TROY 4th & 7 at USM 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−7.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:38TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:06TROY 4th & 7 at USM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−7.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:06USM 4th & 7 at USM 43, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:12USM 4th & 10 at TROY 38, down 10
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:45TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−2.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:11USM 4th & 2 at TROY 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−4.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−3.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 4 at USM 38, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−3.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−3.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:52USM 4th & 9 at USM 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−4.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:21TROY 4th & 10 at USM 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−15.6
    average punt
  23. Q4 10:21USM 4th & 7 at USM 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  24. Q4 8:57TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 29, up 6
    Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.7
    average punt
  25. Q4 6:52USM 4th & 13 at USM 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:44TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  27. Q4 0:29USM 4th & 1 at TROY 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−8.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−8.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:24USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:47TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:24TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:09TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:08USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:38USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:12TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:28USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 17 , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 36 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
78.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
78.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
78.6%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
78.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3INT TD
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0922% → 21%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
78.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
78.1%
Silvers, B. PA pass incomplete to Letton, Sam, PENALTY TROY ineligible downfield on pass (Letton, Sam) 5 yards to the USM48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-5
78.2%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+5
78.2%
Silvers, B. middle pass incomplete to Davis, Sidney (ANTOINE, D.), PENALTY USM offside (POOLE, Ja'Boree) 5 yards to the USM48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+1
78.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+61
78.8%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted for a TD Devonta Foster return for 61 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:3721% → 23%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
78.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+14
78.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 14 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
78.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 14 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
78.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
78.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+5
78.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+34
76.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 34 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:1624% → 25%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
76.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
74.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
75.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
75.2%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
75.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-17
74.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1626% → 27%
Q1 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
74.0%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
74.0%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
74.2%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 16Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+3
74.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
73.0%
Ryan Kay 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
72.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
72.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
72.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Demetrius CainSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
72.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 55 yds, downed at the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
71.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
71.9%
Jabir Frye run for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-1
72.1%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 8
OWN 31
-5
72.4%
TROY Penalty, false start (Sam Lebbie) to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 13
OWN 26
-5
72.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Melvin Tyus) to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 18
OWN 21
+1
72.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:5770% → 70%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by Blace BrownSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
69.5%
George Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+16
68.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 16 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
70.1%
George Payne run for 17 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
70.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
70.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Jawon McDowellSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
68.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
69.8%
Parker Shaunfield 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 2:0831% → 32%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
69.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
69.4%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+36
69.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 21 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Dylan Bradley) to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
67.9%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+12
68.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for 12 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
65.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
66.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
65.3%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-16
65.7%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 16 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 31
OWN 44
0
67.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 31
OWN 44
0
67.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Hiram VelezSimilar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 31
OWN 44
0
67.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
66.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 10Similar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+5
66.0%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
65.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+3
65.5%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Rashad Dillard return for 3 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2838% → 47%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
62.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
52.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
55.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 9 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-3
56.2%
George Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
55.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 4
OWN 32
-5
55.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Tyler Sarrazin) to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+52
55.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 52 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
52.6%
Josh Anderson run for 15 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-4
52.5%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 30 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by Troy Brandon SilversSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
53.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
53.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 58 yds, downed at the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
51.6%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
51.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
51.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
51.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:2152% → 57%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
48.4%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (Brandon Silvers) to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+4
48.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
48.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 5
50
+10
48.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 10 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
48.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 15 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
47.8%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+6
48.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-1
43.6%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
42.9%
Ryan Kay 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 1:0439% → 61%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
39.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 21 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
41.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 43 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Allenzae Staggers) to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+19
39.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 19 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+18
42.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 18 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
47.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Kris WeatherspoonSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
47.0%
MULLENS, Nick sideline pass incomplete to STAGGERS, A., PENALTY TROY pass interference (Melton, Kamryn) 15 yards to the TROY15, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
47.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 13 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
53.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
70.1%
Ito Smith run for 70 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
66.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+6
67.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 6 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 14:38
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
67.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, downed at the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0069% → 71%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
69.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for no gain to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
69.1%
George Payne run for 16 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
70.6%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Josh Marshall return for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1138% → 41%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
62.3%
Deondre Douglas run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
62.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Rod Crayton) to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+15
61.9%
Silvers, B. deep pass incomplete to Thompson, E., PENALTY USM pass interference (COLLINS, Trae) 15 yards to the USM28, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
61.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
61.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-5
62.3%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
62.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Andre Flakes, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
59.5%
Ryan Kay 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
60.0%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+13
59.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 13 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
60.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+7
60.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 7 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+9
59.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-14
61.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Marquise Ricard) to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 24
OWN 26
+17
58.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 17 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+6
59.5%
Tyler Sarrazin run for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:2347% → 63%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
52.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 10 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
36.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
38.2%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+14
38.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 14 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
40.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 6
50
+3
40.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
40.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 9 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
41.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tyre'oune HolmesSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
41.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
39.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by Jawon McDowellSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
37.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
35.6%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
35.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+5
36.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+1
37.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 43 yds , D'Nerius Antoine returns for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:4336% → 61%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
36.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
36.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tyre'oune Holmes, broken up by Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+7
34.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 7 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+10
33.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 10 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
38.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Rountree) to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
38.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
61.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:2852% → 51%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
47.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
47.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+7
47.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Dominic Walker for 7 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
46.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
46.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
46.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Dominic WalkerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
49.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds, downed at the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
50.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
50.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tyre'oune Holmes, broken up by Josh MarshallSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
48.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+15
47.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 39 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 15 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 32FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2761% → 69%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
39.2%
Jabir Frye run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+4
41.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
41.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Hiram VelezSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
30.7%
Ryan Kay 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 33PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by Jalen HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
37.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+1
36.3%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
34.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 34PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
29.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
29.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+1
29.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 1 yd to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
31.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, fair catch by D'Nerius Antoine at the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 35PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
32.7%
Ito Smith run for 16 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
36.4%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
36.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
35.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 8
OWN 48
-5
31.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
29.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 36PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:5278% → 90%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
22.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
21.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
21.3%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
22.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 12
OPP 0
+5
18.6%
PENALTY USM offside 5 yards to the TROY33, PENALTY USM illegal defense 5 yards to the TROY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
19.4%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-2
19.1%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
7.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
9.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D'Nerius Antoine at the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 37Uncategorized
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:0418% → 24%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
18.0%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
20.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+16
18.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 16 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
21.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
20.2%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
19.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+6
15.6%
Nick Mullens run for 6 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
17.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+24
19.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 24 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
23.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:28
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+22.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.5
TD · Q3 14:38
Ito Smith run for 70 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com