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BAY

Baylor 38 at Rice 10

RICE
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2016 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:47 · Jack Fox punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior−35.6Home team on offense−11.2Score differential−4.9Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:27: KD Cannon 10 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:11: Emmanuel Esukpa 1 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick) — RICE win probability +4.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:45: Terence Williams 24 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +3.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:08: Chris Callahan 23 Yd Field Goal — BAY win probability +2.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:45: Jordan Feuerbacher 22 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:02BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:24RICE 4th & 10 at BAY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:23BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:23RICE 4th & 16 at RICE 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:35BAY 4th & 1 at RICE 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:34RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:07BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:31RICE 4th & 4 at BAY 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:36RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:55BAY 4th & 7 at RICE 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:47RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:48BAY 4th & 3 at RICE 20, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:07RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:08BAY 4th & 6 at RICE 6, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−4.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:15RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:37RICE 4th & 12 at BAY 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:34BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:03RICE 4th & 16 at RICE 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:00BAY 4th & 1 at RICE 26, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:20BAY 4th & 5 at RICE 5, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:36RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 11:07BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:27BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:11RICE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:45BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:45BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:54BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5397% → 96%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
3.5%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
3.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 20 yds, downed at the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:364% → 4%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
3.7%
Darik Dillard run for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
3.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
3.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
3.8%
Jack Fox punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5296% → 96%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
3.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+6
3.9%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
3.9%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
4.0%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+5
4.2%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
4.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 48 yds, downed at the Rice 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:574% → 5%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
4.3%
Darrion Pollard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 14Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 12
OWN 14
-2
4.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 12Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 14
OWN 12
-2
4.6%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 10Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
4.7%
Jack Fox punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2195% → 95%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
4.7%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
4.8%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
4.8%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Rice 47Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+8
4.9%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
5.0%
Seth Russell pass intercepted J.T. Blasingame return for no gain to the Rice 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:165% → 6%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
5.3%
Nate German run for 1 yd to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
5.4%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
5.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+6
5.5%
Jack Fox punt for 39 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 6 yds to the Bayl 31 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2694% → 94%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
5.6%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
5.7%
Shock Linwood run for 16 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
5.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 10 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
5.7%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+1
6.0%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-5
6.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
6.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 16
OWN 41
+5
6.5%
RICE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
6.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8FG
16 plays · 74 yds · 5:327% → 10%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Austin WalterSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
6.6%
Austin Walter run for 15 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
6.8%
Jowan Davis run for 10 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
7.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Austin Walter for 1 yd to the Rice 46Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
7.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
7.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darik Dillard for 8 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
7.8%
Darik Dillard run for 17 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
8.1%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
8.4%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+5
8.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+6
8.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 6 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
8.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the Bayl 11Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
9.1%
Nate German run for 5 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
9.2%
Nate German run for no gain to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
9.7%
Hayden Tobola 24 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 2:0391% → 92%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
9.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
9.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
9.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
10.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
9.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+45
9.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 45 yds to the Rice 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
9.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 16Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+16
7.8%
JaMycal Hasty 16 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:249% → 8%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
8.5%
Austin Walter run for 5 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
8.9%
Tyler Stehling run for no gain to the Rice 27Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
8.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach Wright, broken up by Orion StewartSimilar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
8.1%
Nate German punt for 5 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5392% → 94%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
8.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the Rice 24Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
8.3%
Seth Russell run for 6 yds to the Rice 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
8.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
8.5%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Rice 11Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
8.8%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Rice 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
8.4%
Seth Russell sacked by Zach Abercrumbia for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 10Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
6.5%
KD Cannon 10 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:147% → 12%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.7%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
6.7%
Stehling, Tyler pass incomplete to Wright, Zach, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul (Blanchard, Travon) 15 yards to the RICE44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RICE.Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
7.2%
Darik Dillard run for 8 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
7.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+28
7.4%
Tyler Stehling run for 28 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
7.9%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+9
8.1%
Nate German run for 9 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+11
7.7%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 11 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa 1 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:1589% → 93%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
10.9%
Seth Russell run for 7 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
10.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
10.4%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
10.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 12 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
9.9%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
9.9%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
10.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Sam TecklenburgSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+8
11.2%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
7.3%
Terence Williams 24 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:388% → 8%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.7%
Tyler Stehling run for 1 yd to the Rice 26Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+59
7.8%
Darik Dillard run for 59 yds to the Bayl 15 Darik Dillard fumbled, forced by Tion Wright, recovered by Bayl Patrick LevelsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:3592% → 93%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
8.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 2 yds Blake Lynch fumbled, forced by Destri White, recovered by Bayl Blake LynchSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
8.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
7.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+46
7.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 46 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
6.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
6.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+47
7.1%
Chris Callahan 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:039% → 8%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.6%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 5 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-11
8.8%
Walter, Austin rush for loss of 1 yard to the RICE29, PENALTY RICE holding (Klingler, Cory) 11 yards to the RICE19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
8.6%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+6
8.3%
Tyler Stehling run for 6 yds to the Rice 25 RICE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Peter Godber) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
8.2%
Jack Fox punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:5291% → 91%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
8.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
8.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
8.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by V.J. BanksSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
8.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 11 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
8.5%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+7
8.4%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Rice 27 Shock Linwood fumbled, recovered by Bayl Shock Linwood for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
8.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
8.5%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Rice 21Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+1
8.7%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Rice 20Similar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
9.1%
Chris Callahan 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 3:389% → 9%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
8.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 19Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
8.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Parker Smith for 12 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
9.3%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
9.5%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
9.8%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
10.1%
RICE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Rice 39Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
9.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James Mayden, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+3
9.2%
Tyler Stehling run for 3 yds to the Rice 42Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-6
9.1%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Travon Blanchard for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 36Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
8.7%
Jack Fox punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:5292% → 94%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
8.5%
Seth Russell run for 6 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+11
8.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 11 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
8.3%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
8.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 4 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-15
8.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Rice 42Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+21
9.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 21 yds to the Rice 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
8.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 9 yds to the Rice 12Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+2
8.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
8.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
8.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
8.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
5.9%
Chris Callahan 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:407% → 7%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
6.7%
Austin Walter run for 7 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
7.0%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
7.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
7.0%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James Mayden, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
6.9%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
6.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Connor CellaSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
6.7%
Jack Fox punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:2094% → 99%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+51
6.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 51 yds to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
5.1%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the Rice 14 BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Rice 29Similar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 14
OPP 29
+7
5.3%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
1.2%
Jordan Feuerbacher 22 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:582% → 2%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
2.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
2.0%
Darrion Pollard run for 1 yd to the Rice 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+30
1.9%
Nate German run for 15 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Sideline Interference (TEAM) to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.1%
Nate German pass incomplete to Austin WalterSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
2.1%
Nate German pass complete to Austin Walter for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
1.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
1.7%
Jack Fox punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
1.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Denzel Mims for 10 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
1.3%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
1.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
1.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Lynx HawthorneSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
1.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 47 yds, fair catch by V.J. Banks at the Rice 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:262% → 1%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
1.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Austin Walter for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 24Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-4
1.4%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Patrick Levels and K.J. Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 20Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
1.4%
Jack Fox punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:0699% → 100%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
1.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 17 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
1.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
0.9%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
0.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds to the Rice 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
0.2%
KD Cannon 28 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.2%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
0.1%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Darik DillardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27DOWNS
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:40100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
0.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+31
0.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 31 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
0.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
0.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+4
0.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
0.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Rice 18Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
0.1%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Rice 14Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
0.1%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
0.1%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 2 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
0.1%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 3 yds to the Rice 5Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.1%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Rice 5Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.1%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Rice 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
0.1%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 9Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+10
0.1%
Darik Dillard run for 10 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+2
0.1%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the Rice 21Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Jack Fox punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trevor White at the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
0.1%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:11
Emmanuel Esukpa 1 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)
+4.3
TD · Q3 0:45
Jordan Feuerbacher 22 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)
-4.1
TD · Q2 1:45
Terence Williams 24 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com