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LT

Louisiana Tech 45 at Texas Tech 59

TTU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:01 · Gerald Shouse punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+23.0Home team on offense+13.1Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:01: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 42 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — LT win probability +5.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:24: Kam McKnight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +6.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:17: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +8.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:40: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 54 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +8.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:21: Demarcus Felton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 4:06LT 4th & 3 at TTU 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:01LT 4th & 9 at LT 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:04LT 4th & 14 at LT 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:01LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:18TTU 4th & 22 at LT 22, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q4 10:04LT 4th & 6 at TTU 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 7:10TTU 4th & 6 at LT 6, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 2:33LT 4th & 4 at TTU 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:57TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:41TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:07TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:45LT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:04TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:01TTU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:09LT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:24LT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:17TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:40LT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:21TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:22LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:33TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:23LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0383% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.4%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Willies, D. for 52 yards to the LATECH23 (KING, DaMarion), PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass (Morales, Tony) 5 yards to the TTU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+23
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 23 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
83.4%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-1
83.4%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+9
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 8 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+6
83.4%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 4 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
83.4%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+9
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 9 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+12
83.4%
Demarcus Felton run for 12 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:5117% → 19%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
82.9%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+9
82.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 9 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
82.8%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
82.7%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
82.7%
Jarred Craft run for 21 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
82.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
82.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 12 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
82.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+1
82.5%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9 Jarred Craft fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.5%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
82.7%
Ryan Higgins run for 6 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
80.7%
Jonathan Barnes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2581% → 84%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
81.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
83.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 64 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4017% → 16%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
83.3%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
83.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
83.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 9
OWN 19
+5
83.6%
Gerald Shouse punt for 49 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:3783% → 87%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+27
83.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 27 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
87.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 36 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2213% → 19%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
86.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-1
86.3%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+24
86.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 24 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
86.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+29
86.4%
Rhashid Bonnette run for 29 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.5%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4283% → 92%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 13 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
83.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 6 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
83.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+6
83.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
50
0
83.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
50
+9
83.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 9 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+21
91.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 21 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
91.8%
Justin Stockton run for 11 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
88.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Kam McKnight, broken up by Kolin HillSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
88.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+5
88.8%
Gerald Shouse punt for 38 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 26 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Demarcus Felton) to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:5892% → 87%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
91.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 5 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
91.8%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
91.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 9 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
91.7%
Quinton White Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
86.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 42 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
85.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 3 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
84.9%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Douglas Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Gerald Shouse punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 6:3687% → 96%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
86.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 5 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
86.4%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 1
50
-4
86.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-10
86.5%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Coutee, Keke for 38 yards to the LATECH1, PENALTY TTU holding (Akamnonu, M.) 10 yards to the LATECH49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+9
86.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+17
86.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 17 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+21
86.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 21 yds to the LaTch 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
84.4%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Darryl Lewis and Secdrick Cooper for a loss of 15 yards to the LaTch 17 Patrick Mahomes II fumbled, recovered by TexTc Patrick Mahomes II , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
-5
86.5%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Russell Farris and Dalton Santos for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+40
92.5%
Clayton Hatfield 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
95.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:0912% → 13%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
88.5%
Jarred Craft run for 10 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
88.1%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
87.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 7 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.3%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+39
87.4%
Jarred Craft run for 39 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
87.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Boston Scott for 9 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
87.2%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
87.4%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Douglas Coleman) to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
90.4%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:369% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.0%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
90.7%
Jarred Craft run for 11 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
90.4%
Carlos Henderson run for 11 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
90.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+7
89.7%
Boston Scott run for 7 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
89.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 2 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
89.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+21
90.1%
Ryan Higgins run for 21 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
89.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Jarred CraftSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
89.2%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
89.8%
Kam McKnight run for 4 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.9%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0786% → 96%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
86.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
87.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
50
-5
87.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds to the TEXASTECH 45 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Cameron Batson) to the TexTc 45Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
87.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+14
86.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 14 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
87.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Dalton Santos) to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
87.3%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Davis, Reginald for 3 yards to the LATECH22 (GROGAN, Lloyd), PENALTY TTU illegal block (Willies, D.) 10 yards to the LATECH35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+21
87.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 21 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
87.2%
Justin Stockton run for 11 yds to the LaTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
87.2%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 4Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:376% → 15%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.0%
Ryan Higgins run for 10 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 5 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
93.5%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
85.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 54 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1988% → 97%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.9%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+19
87.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 19 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
88.7%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
88.7%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+9
88.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 19 yds to the TEXASTECH 32 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Derrick Willies) to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
88.7%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-10
88.6%
Mahomes, P. rush for no gain to the LATECH40 (COOPER, S.), PENALTY TTU holding (Morales, Tony) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 18
50
+30
88.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 30 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
88.7%
Quinton White Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaTch 19Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
88.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+11
90.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 11 yds to the LaTch 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:174% → 3%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
95.9%
Ryan Higgins run for 1 yd to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+18
95.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 18 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
95.7%
Jarred Craft run for 17 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
95.6%
Ryan Higgins run for 1 yd to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
95.6%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
95.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Carlos Henderson) to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+8
95.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 8 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
96.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete, broken up by Jordyn BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:4898% → 99%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
98.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 6 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+12
98.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 12 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
98.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 21 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
98.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 16 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
98.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 6Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.1%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the LaTch 6Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan Giles, broken up by Secdrick CooperSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.2%
Clayton Hatfield 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:481% → 4%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.2%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
96.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 76 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:4997% → 100%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
97.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 1 yd to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Keonatye Garner) to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
97.2%
Stockton, J. rush for 4 yards to the LATECH41 (FARRIS, Russell), PENALTY TTU holding (Giles, Jonathan) 10 yards to the TTU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+30
97.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 30 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
97.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 6 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+7
97.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 7 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
97.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 1 yd to the LaTch 11Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
97.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the LaTch 11Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+9
98.2%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Cantrell, Dylan, PENALTY LATECH pass interference (NOLAND, C.) 9 yards to the LATECH2, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:101% → 3%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.5%
Ryan Higgins run for 20 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.4%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
99.4%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+12
99.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
97.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
98.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:17
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q3 4:40
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 54 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-8.1
TD · Q4 14:21
Demarcus Felton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com