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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadELON aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreELON score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:53 · Daniel Thompson run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Gallagher KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:44: Brandon Gentry run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Gallagher KICK) — ELON win probability +4.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ELON has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:39: Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 12 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK) — CLT win probability +5.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:39: Kevin Olsen pass complete to Kyle Hoffman for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello PAT MISSED) — CLT win probability +5.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:35: Kevin Olsen pass complete to Justin Bolus for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK) — CLT win probability +6.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:44: Robert Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CLT win probability +6.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ELON made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 38, tiedClose callPunted · 73.6% before the snapGo for it73.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:44CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 43, down 7Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snapGo for it70.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:28ELON 4th & 5 at ELON 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it30.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.0%average punt
- Q1 3:32ELON 4th & 4 at ELON 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it33.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q1 1:05CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 37, down 7Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:52ELON 4th & 6 at CLT 41, up 7Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it37.7%40% to convertField goal37.1%−0.632% to makePuntTheir call37.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:39CLT 4th & 1 at ELON 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.4%59% to convertField goal66.4%−2.094% to makePunt61.5%−6.9average punt
- Q3 15:00ELON 4th & 8 at CLT 45, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.434% to convertField goal16.0%−1.225% to makePuntTheir call17.1%average punt
- Q3 11:36ELON 4th & 8 at ELON 32, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.6%−1.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q3 10:26CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 17, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snapGo for it91.9%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
- Q3 9:01ELON 4th & 2 at CLT 34, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%57% to convertField goal7.3%−1.547% to makePunt6.6%−2.2average punt
- Q3 5:56CLT 4th & 2 at ELON 31, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.2%57% to convertField goal94.6%−0.654% to makePunt94.1%−1.2average punt
- Q3 4:55ELON 4th & 1 at ELON 35, down 26Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it1.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:29CLT 4th & 2 at ELON 18, up 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%56% to convertField goal98.8%−0.279% to makePunt97.4%−1.7average punt
- Q4 15:00ELON 4th & 6 at CLT 33, down 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%40% to convertField goal0.4%−0.149% to makePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:53ELON 4th & 1 at CLT 6, down 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%69% to convertField goal0.0%−0.191% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:45CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 13, up 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:20ELON 4th & 1 at CLT 44, down 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.127% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:32CLT 4th & 3 at ELON 48, up 33Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:53ELON 4th & 5 at ELON 47, down 33Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ELON made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:44ELON Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.5%97% to makeGo for two29.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:39CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.0%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:39CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call75.0%97% to makeGo for two74.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:35CLT Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:44CLT Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick92.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call92.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:02CLT Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:14CLT Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:53ELON Touchdown, down 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
76.1%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 7 yds to the Charl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 2TD13 plays · 99 yds · 5:5424% → 29%
Q1 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+6
75.8%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Jeremiah Bridges for 6 yds to the ElonU 10Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
75.8%
Daniel Thompson pass incomplete to Jeremiah Bridges, broken up by Kedrick DavisSimilar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+9
75.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Corey Joyner for 9 yds to the ElonU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
75.8%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Corey Joyner for 8 yds to the ElonU 35Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
75.7%
M. Summers rush for loss of 2 yards to the ELON49 (FLEMING, Tanner;B.-THOMPSON, J.), PENALTY CHA offside (CARROLL, Nick) 5 yards to the CHA44, 1ST DOWN ELON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+42
75.7%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Jeremiah Bridges for 42 yds to the Charl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 7:44
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
72.3%
Arthur Hart punt for 39 yds , Corey Joyner returns for no gain to the ElonU 18 Corey Joyner fumbled, recovered by ElonU Malcolm GallowaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
CLTDrive 5PUNT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
ELONDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
69.4%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Jeremiah Bridges for a loss of 2 yards to the ElonU 16Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.3%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Demetrius Oliver for 4 yds to the ElonU 34Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+2
69.2%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Brandon Gentry for 2 yds to the ElonU 36Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+4
69.4%
David Petroni punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 29 , Austin Duke returns for 4 yds to the Charl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
67.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 5 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
68.3%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 3 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
68.2%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Justin Bolus, broken up by John SilasSimilar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+19
67.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ElonU 43 , Khalil Moore returns for 19 yds to the ElonU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0834% → 36%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
65.7%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Jeremiah Bridges for 12 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9TD12 plays · 85 yds · 4:0365% → 73%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
65.3%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 5 yds to the Charl 41 CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Charl 26Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-2
64.6%
Kevin Olsen sacked by Nick Groll for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+19
63.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 19 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
66.4%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 3 yds to the ElonU 48Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+14
66.7%
OLSEN, Kevin pass incomplete to FOGGIE, Juwan, PENALTY ELON pass interference (K. Moore) 14 yards to the ELON34, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
67.4%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 18 yds to the ElonU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
72.5%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 12 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 10INT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q2 8:33
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+10
69.6%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Tre Lennon for 10 yds to the ElonU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-13
68.3%
Daniel Thompson pass intercepted Kedrick Davis return for 2 yds to the ElonU 36 ELON Penalty, personal foul (O'Shane Morris) to the ElonU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11TD7 plays · 26 yds · 2:3173% → 77%
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-10
72.7%
OLSEN, Kevin pass incomplete to FOGGIE, Juwan, QB hurry by M. Willoughby, PENALTY CHA holding 10 yards to the ELON33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+24
71.6%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 15 yds to the ElonU 18 for a 1ST down ELON Penalty, personal foul (Warren Messer) to the ElonU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.3%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Kyle Hoffman for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 12PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
74.4%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Cole Taylor for 12 yds to the ElonU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
73.7%
Daniel Thompson run for a loss of 7 yards to the ElonU 13 Daniel Thompson fumbled,Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 34
OWN 13
+3
75.7%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Brandon Gentry for 3 yds Brandon Gentry fumbled, forced by Tanner Fleming, recovered by ElonU Brandon GentrySimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 31
OWN 16
+8
76.1%
David Petroni punt for 41 yds , Austin Duke returns for 8 yds to the ElonU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13TD11 plays · 49 yds · 2:1078% → 85%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
78.4%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 5 yds to the ElonU 44Similar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
78.5%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Juwan Foggie for 7 yds to the ElonU 32Similar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
78.6%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 1 yd to the ElonU 23Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+6
78.6%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 6 yds to the ElonU 17Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+12
77.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Justin Bolus for 12 yds to the ElonU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.4%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Justin Bolus for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-1
83.2%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Cole Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2687% → 94%
ELONDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
CLTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
ELONDrive 19DOWNS5 plays · 19 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
91.8%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Cole Taylor for 11 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
91.7%
Daniel Thompson pass incomplete to Corey Joyner, broken up by Daquan LucasSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+8
91.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Demetrius Oliver for 8 yds to the Charl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:2495% → 99%
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
95.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Justin Bolus for 8 yds to the ElonU 31Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+13
95.3%
Hasaan Klugh run for 23 yds to the ElonU 8 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal block (Chris Brown) to the ElonU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+14
95.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Juwan Foggie for 14 yds to the ElonU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.0%
Robert Washington run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
CLTDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 61 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-15
99.2%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass incomplete to MULLEN, Nate, dropped pass, PENALTY CHA illegal block (MONTGOMERY, C.) 15 yards to the ELON39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 23
OPP 39
+22
99.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Justin Bolus for 22 yds to the ElonU 17Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 1
OPP 17
-1
99.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Uriah LeMay for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 23INT11 plays · 55 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q3 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+28
99.6%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Jeremiah Bridges for 28 yds to the ElonU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.6%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to De'Sean McNair for 7 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+6
99.6%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to John Luke Arrington for 6 yds to the Charl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.6%
Daniel Thompson pass intercepted, touchback. Alex Duncan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
ELONDrive 25FUMBLE TD6 plays · 40 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to De'Sean McNair for 8 yds to the ElonU 27 CHARLOTTE Penalty, OF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass incomplete to Matt Foster, broken up by Ben DeLucaSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+17
99.9%
De'Sean McNair run for 2 yds to the ElonU 29 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ElonU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Cole Taylor for 9 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+59
99.9%
Daniel Thompson run for 3 yds Daniel Thompson fumbled, forced by Nafees Lyon, recovered by Charl Ben DeLuca , return for 59 yds, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 26TD9 plays · 68 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+26
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Corey Joyner for 26 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to De'Sean McNair for 27 yds to the Charl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+11
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to De'Sean McNair for 11 yds to the Charl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 28DOWNS6 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to Demetrius Oliver for 11 yds to the ElonU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-7
99.9%
Daniel Thompson sacked by Tommy Doctor for a loss of 7 yards to the ElonU 40Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+16
99.9%
Daniel Thompson pass complete to De'Sean McNair for 16 yds to the Charl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 29PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:32
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Khalil Moore at the ElonU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 30DOWNS6 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
CLTDrive 31END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:44
Robert Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+6.9
TD · Q2 0:35
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Justin Bolus for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 4:39
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Kyle Hoffman for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello PAT MISSED)
+5.3