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ALST

Alabama State 13 at UTSA 26

UTSA
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadALST aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreALST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:42 · Trevor Vincent punt for 45 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 8 yds to the TexSA 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+40.7Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:25: Jujuan Young-Battle run for 18 yds to the AlbSt 22 for a 1ST down — ALST win probability +2.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ALST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:44: Dalton Sturm run for 51 yds for a TD, (Dalton Sturm pass to Greg Campbell Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +3.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:00: Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED) — UTSA win probability +3.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:53: Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 20 — UTSA win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:07: Kerry Thomas Jr. 25 Yd pass from Dalton Sturm (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UTSA win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ALST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:39ALST 4th & 8 at ALST 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:27ALST 4th & 5 at UTSA 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42ALST 4th & 14 at ALST 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 1 at ALST 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11ALST 4th & 7 at UTSA 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:59ALST 4th & 17 at ALST 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:47UTSA 4th & 3 at ALST 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.4
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:00ALST 4th & 18 at ALST 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:18ALST 4th & 11 at ALST 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:56UTSA 4th & 18 at ALST 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ALST 4th & 11 at UTSA 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:11ALST 4th & 11 at ALST 24, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:03UTSA 4th & 10 at ALST 47, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:20ALST 4th & 2 at ALST 34, down 19
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:35ALST 4th & 9 at UTSA 36, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:35UTSA 4th & 3 at ALST 41, up 13
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ALST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:39UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39ALST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:44UTSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:00UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:07UTSA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:35ALST Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 2TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1296% → 96%
Q1 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
96.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the AlbSt 5Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for no gain to the AlbSt 5Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass incomplete to Nygel LeeSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.1%
Jujuan Young-Battle sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 24Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
96.1%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Josh Davis for 3 yds to the AlbSt 27Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
96.1%
Trevor Vincent punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
96.0%
Marquez McNair run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+23
95.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 23 yds to the AlbSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
96.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 42Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
96.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 10 yds to the AlbSt 23 Jarveon Williams fumbled, forced by Darron Johnson, recovered by AlbSt Trey JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 5TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 6:474% → 7%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
95.7%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Nygel Lee for 8 yds to the AlbSt 31Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+2
95.6%
Khalid Thomas run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
95.6%
Khalid Thomas run for 26 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
95.6%
Marquell Beckwith run for 11 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
95.5%
Jujuan Young-Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+3
95.5%
Marquell Beckwith run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-5
95.6%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+8
95.2%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Khalid Thomas for 8 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+9
95.2%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Joe Williams Iv for 9 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
95.1%
Khalid Thomas run for 4 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+6
95.1%
Marquell Beckwith run for 6 yds to the TexSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
95.1%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 11Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
94.7%
Darrel King run for 6 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
94.7%
Jujuan Young-Battle run for 4 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.5%
Khalid Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (David Albert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
94.0%
Johnson,J sideline pass incomplete to Williams,S, QB hurry by Jackson, PENALTY UTSA holding (Domond) 10 yards to the UTSA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+7
93.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+15
93.8%
Johnson,J post pass incomplete to McNair, PENALTY ALST targeting (Garnett) 15 yards to the ALST48, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
94.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 46Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
94.1%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Therron PresleySimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
94.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
93.8%
Jared Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 13
OWN 49
+5
93.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AlbSt 25 , Khalid Thomas returns for 5 yds to the TEXASSAN 46 TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AlbSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass incomplete to Josh DavisSimilar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
93.0%
Jujuan Young-Battle run for a loss of 4 yards to the AlbSt 21 Jujuan Young-Battle fumbled, recovered by AlbSt Jujuan Young-BattleSimilar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
93.2%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass incomplete, broken up by Anthony HickeySimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+8
93.3%
Trevor Vincent punt for 45 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 8 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8FUMBLE
12 plays · 54 yds · 0:3593% → 93%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
93.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 11 yds to the AlbSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
93.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-1
93.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+4
93.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 4 yds to the AlbSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+6
92.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
93.3%
Brady Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+5
93.3%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the AlbSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-5
93.3%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AlbSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+13
93.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the AlbSt 20 for a 1ST down ALABAMA ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
93.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-1
93.3%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+12
93.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 12 yds Marquez McNair fumbled, forced by Therron Presley, recovered by AlbSt Robert BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:149% → 11%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
90.8%
Jujuan Young-Battle run for 18 yds to the AlbSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
90.6%
Khalid Thomas run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
50
+3
89.7%
Khalid Thomas run for 3 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
89.8%
Marquell Beckwith run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-5
89.9%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 48Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+6
90.0%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Marquell Beckwith for 6 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-5
88.6%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+31
88.9%
Trevor Vincent punt for 31 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:2089% → 93%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
89.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 11 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
89.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Halen Steward for 5 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
89.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
89.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 7 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
89.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
90.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+51
93.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 51 yds for a TD, (Dalton Sturm pass to Greg Campbell Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:457% → 7%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
92.7%
Darrel King run for 4 yds to the AlbSt 15Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-5
92.6%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (Josh Davis) to the AlbSt 10Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
92.7%
Jujuan Young-Battle run for 4 yds to the AlbSt 14Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-10
92.9%
Jujuan Young-Battle sacked by Josiah Tauaefa for a loss of 10 yards to the AlbSt 4Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 17
OWN 4
+5
93.0%
Trevor Vincent punt for 43 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 5 yds to the AlbSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
92.6%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Brady Jones for 7 yds to the AlbSt 35Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
92.8%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Marquez McNair, broken up by Kurron RamseySimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
92.5%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Therron PresleySimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
92.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Khalid Thomas at the AlbSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
92.5%
Khalid Thomas run for 10 yds to the AlbSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
92.2%
Khalid Thomas run for 14 yds to the AlbSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
92.0%
Khalid Thomas run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 35Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+16
91.8%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Josh Davis for 16 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:0091% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
91.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+27
90.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 37 yds to the TEXASSAN 40 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Marquez McNair) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-15
91.8%
Sturm deep pass complete to McNair for 44 yards to the ALST6 (Street), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (McNair) 15 yards to the UTSA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+51
91.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 51 yds to the AlbSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
92.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+11
92.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 11 yds to the AlbSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.7%
Khalid Thomas run for 1 yd to the AlbSt 26Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
93.8%
Jujuan Young-Battle sacked by Josiah Tauaefa for a loss of 4 yards to the AlbSt 22Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
94.0%
Jujuan Young-Battle sacked by Ronnie Feist for a loss of 5 yards to the AlbSt 17Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
94.1%
Trevor Vincent punt for 38 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for no gain to the TexSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
94.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
94.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the AlbSt 46Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+7
94.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 7 yds to the AlbSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
94.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 10 yds to the AlbSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.9%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Ronnie Scott return for no gain to the AlbSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
94.2%
Marquell Beckwith run for 5 yds to the AlbSt 7Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+7
94.2%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Willis White for 7 yds to the AlbSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
94.1%
Jujuan Young-Battle sacked by La'Kel Bass for a loss of 6 yards to the AlbSt 8Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+2
94.2%
Marquell Beckwith run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 10Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+3
94.2%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Willis White for 3 yds to the AlbSt 13Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
94.3%
Trevor Vincent punt for 36 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the AlbSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
95.3%
Willis White run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 46Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
95.3%
Willis White run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 43Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+6
95.1%
Jared Johnson pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 6 yds to the AlbSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.4%
Jared Johnson run for no gain to the AlbSt 37Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
95.3%
Jared Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-8
95.1%
Jared Johnson sacked by Darron Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the AlbSt 45 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 18
OPP 45
+8
94.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 30 yds , Khalid Thomas returns for 8 yds to the AlbSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:116% → 6%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
93.8%
Jujuan Young-Battle run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 25Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+23
93.8%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Darrel King for 23 yds to the AlbSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
92.8%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (Sam Baptiste) to the AlbSt 43Similar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
93.7%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass incomplete to Josh DavisSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+14
93.8%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Josh Davis for 14 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
92.5%
Khalid Thomas run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
92.9%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass incomplete to Josh DavisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
93.0%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass incomplete to Loliya MacharrySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-1
93.2%
Jujuan Young-Battle sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 42
+4
93.8%
Trevor Vincent punt for 31 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 4 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 3:4696% → 99%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
95.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
95.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 6 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady Jones, broken up by Therron PresleySimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+14
95.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 14 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
96.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 8 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
96.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
50
0
96.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Trevor Stevens, broken up by Kurron RamseySimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
50
+7
96.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the AlbSt 43Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+33
96.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 33 yds to the AlbSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
96.3%
Sturm deep out pass incomplete to Stewart, PENALTY UTSA illegal block (Rhodes) 15 yards to the ALST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+25
98.7%
Kerry Thomas Jr. 25 Yd pass from Dalton Sturm (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:562% → 2%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass incomplete to Chett LeVay, broken up by Nate GainesSimilar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.8%
Khalid Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 24Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
97.8%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (Jylan Ware) to the AlbSt 19Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 16
OPP 0
0
97.5%
Young-Battle middle pass incomplete to White (Egwuagu), PENALTY UTSA offside defense off-setting, PENALTY ALST holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
97.9%
Jujuan Young-Battle pass complete to Josh Davis for 5 yds to the AlbSt 24Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
97.9%
Trevor Vincent punt for 33 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for no gain to the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
98.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 10 yds to the AlbSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
98.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 5 yds to the AlbSt 42Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
98.9%
Willis White run for 1 yd to the AlbSt 41Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-6
98.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Ishmael Aurismond for a loss of 6 yards to the AlbSt 47Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+12
98.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 yds , Khalid Thomas returns for 12 yds to the AlbSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
98.4%
Kenneth Thomas run for 5 yds to the AlbSt 31Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
98.4%
Kenneth Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 30Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+4
98.4%
Quinterris Toppings pass complete to Austin Beamus for 4 yds to the AlbSt 34Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Trevor Vincent punt for 33 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for no gain to the TexSA 37 JaBryce Taylor fumbled, recovered by AlbSt Dylan RenakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:522% → 3%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
98.3%
Brandon Watkins run for 1 yd to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Quinterris Toppings pass incomplete to Destin PorterSimilar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Quinterris Toppings pass incomplete to Kenneth ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+5
98.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, offside defense (Jonathan Tuiolosega) to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 4
OPP 31
-5
98.3%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, false start (Jylan Ware) to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+36
97.4%
Quinterris Toppings pass complete to Palmer Graham for 36 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.1%
Team run for no gain to the AlbSt 49 Team fumbled, recovered by TexSA Shaq WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+8
98.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 8 yds to the AlbSt 41Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
98.1%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Shaq WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+4
97.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AlbSt 7 , Khalid Thomas returns for 4 yds to the AlbSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
97.8%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, delay of game (Quinterris Toppings) to the AlbSt 4Similar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 13
OWN 4
0
97.8%
Quinterris Toppings pass incomplete to Joe Williams IvSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+4
97.8%
Quinterris Toppings run for 4 yds to the AlbSt 8Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+6
97.9%
Quinterris Toppings run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:44
Dalton Sturm run for 51 yds for a TD, (Dalton Sturm pass to Greg Campbell Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
+3
TD · Q3 12:00
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)
+3
TD · Q4 10:07
Kerry Thomas Jr. 25 Yd pass from Dalton Sturm (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com