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NMSU

New Mexico State 22 at UTEP 38

UTEP
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:06 · Peyton Theisler punt for 49 yds, downed at the UTEP 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense+0.8Pregame prior+12.4Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:34: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Cole Freytag for 46 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +6.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Warren Redix for 3 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +11.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:53: Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:12: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 11 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Jason Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED) — NMSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51UTEP 4th & 5 at NMSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:28NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:53NMSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 1, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:53UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:06NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:11UTEP 4th & 5 at NMSU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:11NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:26NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:02NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:47UTEP 4th & 7 at NMSU 39, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:47NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 35, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:18UTEP 4th & 17 at UTEP 18, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:11NMSU 4th & 6 at UTEP 43, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:11NMSU 4th & 5 at UTEP 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:18UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:34UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09UTEP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:53NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:12UTEP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:47UTEP Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Oj Clark for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
64.8%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
64.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
64.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
64.8%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+20
64.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 20 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
64.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the UTEP 36Similar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+10
64.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Aaron Jones for 10 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
64.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry Juniel, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
64.8%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
64.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
64.7%
Alan Luna punt for 48 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
64.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
64.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Dashone SmithSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+1
64.9%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+8
65.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 43 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
66.6%
Aaron Jones run for 37 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FG
15 plays · 74 yds · 3:2534% → 35%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.9%
Royce Caldwell run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
65.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
65.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
65.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+29
65.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Oj Clark for 29 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
65.3%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
65.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Josh AganonSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+8
65.5%
Rogers,Tyler crossing pass incomplete to Hogan,Gregory (NEEDHAM,Nik), PENALTY UTEP pass interference (NEEDHAM,Nik) 8 yards to the UTEP2, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.3%
Rogers,Tyler PA pass incomplete to Hogan,Gregory, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (BEVERLY,Kalon) 1 yards to the UTEP1, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.3%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the UTEP 1Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.3%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the UTEP 1Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Oj ClarkSimilar
Q1 6:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
64.8%
Parker Davidson 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
65.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.2%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
65.2%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
65.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
64.8%
Alan Luna punt for 45 yds, downed at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
65.4%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
65.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
65.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
66.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 49 yds, downed at the UTEP 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8FG
20 plays · 66 yds · 7:5665% → 69%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
65.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, IF (5 Yards) to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
65.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for 19 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
66.3%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
66.3%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+2
66.2%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
66.4%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+16
66.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Roy Lopez) to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
66.6%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-4
66.6%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+18
65.7%
Aaron Jones run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
66.8%
UTEP Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
66.8%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.8%
Kavika Johnson run for no gain to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
66.3%
GREENLEE, Zack flag pass incomplete to BATSON,Tyler (Leonard,Brandyn), PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Hood,Jonathan) 6 yards to the NMSU2, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
66.8%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.8%
GREENLEE, Zack crossing pass incomplete to PLINKE,Hayden, PENALTY NMSU offside 2 yards to the NMSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
66.8%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
69.4%
Jay Mattox 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
68.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Oj Clark, broken up by Dante LoviletteSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
68.7%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
69.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+9
69.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 54 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 9 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:3470% → 77%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
69.8%
Quadraiz Wadley run for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 19
OWN 27
-3
68.9%
Terry Juniel run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+29
68.2%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 29 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
70.9%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+46
77.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Cole Freytag for 46 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
76.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Oj Clark for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
75.7%
Royce Caldwell run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+8
75.8%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
75.8%
Royce Caldwell run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
75.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Oj Clark for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
76.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+5
76.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 49 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 5 yds to the UTEP 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12TD
19 plays · 87 yds · 4:4477% → 92%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
76.9%
Aaron Jones run for 8 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+7
77.1%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
77.2%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
77.0%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+22
76.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Cole Freytag for 22 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
78.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+15
77.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jaquan White for 15 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry Juniel, broken up by Jaden WrightSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
78.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Aaron Jones for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+7
83.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Cole Freytag for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
83.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+21
83.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jaquan White for 21 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.9%
GREENLEE, Zack pass incomplete to SINEGAL, Eddie, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Owens,DeMarcus) 1 yards to the NMSU2, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
82.9%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Warren Redix for 3 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.3%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 8 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
92.9%
Kavika Johnson run for 15 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
93.2%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-5
93.1%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Derron Gatewood) to the UTEP 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+3
92.9%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
92.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry Juniel, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
92.2%
Alan Luna punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
92.9%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
92.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+43
93.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 57 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 43 yds to the UTEP 34 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Cole Freytag) to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.9%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 6
50
+8
94.8%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.9%
Quadraiz Wadley run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
94.9%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
94.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
94.3%
Alan Luna punt for 38 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 4:045% → 13%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
95.0%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+33
95.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 33 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
94.6%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
94.5%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
94.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
94.6%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+7
94.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 3 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
94.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 6 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+13
95.3%
Jason Huntley run for 13 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
94.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 12 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4191% → 98%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
90.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Cole Freytag for 20 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
91.1%
Aaron Jones run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 38 Aaron Jones fumbled, forced by DeMarcus Owens, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
91.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Aaron Jones for 27 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.4%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 11 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:123% → 9%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
97.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 16 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
97.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 44 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.8%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
98.4%
Aaron Jones run for 75 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Kalon BeverlySimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Brendan RoyalSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Oj ClarkSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+19
98.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 46 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 19 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:2799% → 96%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jaquan White UTEP Penalty, IR ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Kavika Johnson run for no gain to the UTEP 38Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+18
98.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 18 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+50
95.8%
Quadraiz Wadley run for a loss of 5 yards Quadraiz Wadley fumbled, forced by Terrill Hanks, recovered by NMxSt DeMarcus Owens , return for 50 yds, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.4%
UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (John Delarosa) to the UTEP 15Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-11
95.4%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Shamad Lomax for a loss of 11 yards to the UTEP 4Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 31
OWN 4
0
95.3%
Kavika Johnson pass incomplete to Warren RedixSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 31
OWN 4
+14
95.3%
Aaron Jones run for 14 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
94.9%
Alan Luna punt for 55 yds , Tyrian Taylor returns for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 44 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
95.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+10
95.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
94.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 10 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
94.7%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
94.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+9
94.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Josh Aganon, broken up by Dashone SmithSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
94.2%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+4
94.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
94.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Brendan RoyalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25END OF GAME
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:5997% → 99%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
96.8%
Aaron Jones run for 13 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
97.0%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 39Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+12
97.2%
Aaron Jones run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+15
97.6%
Aaron Jones run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 31 Aaron Jones fumbled, recovered by UTEP Cole Freytag for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
97.7%
Quadraiz Wadley run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+13
97.6%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+9
97.7%
Aaron Jones run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
97.7%
Warren Redix run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
97.7%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
97.7%
Zack Greenlee run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
98.7%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:09
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Warren Redix for 3 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
+11
TD · Q3 3:53
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 1:12
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 11 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com