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SMU

SMU 34 at North Texas 21

UNT
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-4.8UNT 2.7%Michael Armstrong 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 14 · Q3 0:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:57 · Michael Armstrong 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior−11.4Home team on offense−40.6Score differential−21.1Garbage-time factor−7.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:59: Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 46 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:38: Alec Morris pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +6.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:15: Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +9.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:57: Michael Armstrong 22 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:21: Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +6.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 5:46SMU 4th & 12 at UNT 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46UNT 4th & 10 at SMU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:08SMU 4th & 13 at UNT 30, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.6%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:01UNT 4th & 1 at SMU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00UNT 4th & 7 at SMU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:59SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:32UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:15UNT 4th & 9 at SMU 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:57SMU 4th & 5 at UNT 5, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 23 at UNT 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:21SMU 4th & 14 at UNT 14, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:21UNT 4th & 2 at SMU 24, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:05SMU 4th & 4 at UNT 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:01SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:23SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:19UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:59SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:38UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:15SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:21UNT Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:5985% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
15.1%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
15.1%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Kishawn McClainSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+16
15.1%
Matt Davis run for 16 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
15.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
15.1%
James Proche run for 8 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+49
15.6%
Xavier Jones run for 49 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
15.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 12 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
15.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
15.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
15.6%
Alec Morris pass intercepted Darrion Millines return for no gain to the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
16.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
16.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+9
16.0%
Matt Davis run for 9 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
15.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 5 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
15.9%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
15.9%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
15.9%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
15.9%
Braeden West run for no gain to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+47
15.9%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Chad Davis return for 37 yds to the NoTex 0 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NoTex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
17.1%
Alec Morris pass intercepted Horace Richardson return for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:4183% → 83%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+50
16.7%
Matt Davis run for 50 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
16.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
16.5%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 12Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
16.7%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
17.1%
Josh Williams 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
17.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-8
17.4%
Alec Morris sacked by Jackson Mitchell for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+15
17.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 15 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
17.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+8
17.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 8 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
17.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
17.9%
Anthony Wyche run for 3 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
17.9%
Anthony Wyche run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
17.9%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
17.7%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Anthony WycheSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
17.4%
Eric Keena punt for 31 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:5382% → 86%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
18.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-1
18.0%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+88
13.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 88 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0414% → 19%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
13.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+31
14.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 31 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
14.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
14.7%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Willie RobinsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+15
14.5%
SMU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jordan Wyatt) to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
14.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+11
14.8%
Alec Morris pass complete to Terian Goree for 11 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
14.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
14.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
19.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 7 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:1182% → 81%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
18.4%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
18.3%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
18.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
50
0
18.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
50
+7
18.0%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+16
18.2%
Xavier Jones run for 16 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
17.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
17.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-4
18.2%
Matt Davis sacked by Jareid Combs for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 13
OPP 30
0
19.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
18.9%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willie Robinson for 9 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
19.5%
Alec Morris pass complete to Terian Goree for 4 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
19.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Terian Goree for 10 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.9%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Willie RobinsonSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
19.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Anthony Wyche for 9 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
19.9%
Anthony Wyche run for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+15
19.3%
Alec Morris pass intercepted Horace Richardson return for 15 yds to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:3881% → 89%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+52
18.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to James Proche for 52 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
18.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 15
OPP 16
-4
17.9%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 19
OPP 20
-10
18.0%
SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 29
OPP 30
-10
18.1%
SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 39
OPP 40
-1
18.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 40
OPP 41
-5
19.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 45
OPP 46
+46
11.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 46 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2114% → 22%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
13.5%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
13.8%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willie Robinson for 22 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
15.1%
Alec Morris sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+10
14.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 10 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+11
15.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 11 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
21.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
19.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
18.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willie Robinson for 11 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
18.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
18.8%
Alec Morris pass complete to Terian Goree for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
19.5%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+3
19.2%
Alec Morris run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
19.1%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+5
18.0%
Eric Keena punt for 38 yds , James Proche returns for 5 yds to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
18.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
18.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 9
OWN 15
-5
19.1%
Matt Davis sacked by Joshua Wheeler for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 14
OWN 10
0
19.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
18.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
18.7%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
18.0%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
17.1%
Eric Keena punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:3281% → 92%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
18.7%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+12
18.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to James Proche for 12 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+34
18.1%
Xavier Jones run for 34 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
17.1%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
17.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 10 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
17.0%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
17.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+17
17.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryan Becker for 17 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
10.4%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 16 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
11.4%
Anthony Wyche run for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
11.6%
Anthony Wyche run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
11.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 5 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
11.7%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
11.5%
Alec Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+2
11.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Terian Goree for 2 yds Terian Goree fumbled, forced by William Jeanlys, recovered by NoTexSimilar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
11.1%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:2492% → 97%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
7.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+16
7.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 16 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
7.6%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+11
7.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 11 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
7.4%
Matt Davis run for 13 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
7.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
7.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the NoTex 5Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Chad DavisSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
2.7%
Michael Armstrong 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:574% → 3%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Willie Robinson for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
3.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 7 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
3.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Terian Goree for 9 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
3.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
3.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+8
3.5%
Alec Morris pass complete to Terian Goree for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
3.6%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-11
3.6%
Alec Morris sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 11 yards to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 40
0
3.4%
Eric Keena punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtland Sutton at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21MISSED FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 6:3598% → 99%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
2.5%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
2.4%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+15
2.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
2.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 10 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
2.2%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+12
2.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 12 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
2.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
2.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Austin Rolfe for 11 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
2.1%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the NoTex 22Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-10
2.1%
SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+24
2.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 24 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.1%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
2.1%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the NoTex 9 Braeden West fumbled, forced by James Gray, recovered by SMU Ben HicksSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
2.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
2.5%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
1.4%
Michael Armstrong 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:001% → 8%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
1.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 16 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
1.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 10 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
1.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 1 yd to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
1.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+14
1.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 14 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
1.6%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
1.5%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+6
1.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 6 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+4
1.6%
Mason Fine run for 4 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
1.6%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
8.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1697% → 97%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
3.3%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
2.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
2.7%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Matt McNewSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
3.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Anthony Wyche at the NoTex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
3.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 10 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
3.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
3.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 10 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
3.5%
Mason Fine sacked by Nick Horton and Justin Lawler for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-13
3.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (-13 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 25
OWN 14
0
3.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffrey WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 25
OWN 14
-7
3.1%
Mason Fine sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 7Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 32
OWN 7
0
3.0%
Eric Keena punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:15
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 1:59
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 46 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q4 2:21
Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com