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CLT

Charlotte 14 at Louisville 70

LOU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:31 · Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+37.4Home team on offense+28.6Score differential+21.2Blowout margin+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.3Garbage-time factor+3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:49: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:47: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:00: Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:05: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 16 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — CLT win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:27: Lamar Jackson pass complete to L.J. Scott for 20 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 10:09CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:48LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:25CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:51CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 34, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:42CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 28, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:16CLT 4th & 19 at CLT 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:20CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 41, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 29, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:06CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 28, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:39LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 44, up 56
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 32, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36CLT 4th & 10 at LOU 24, down 56
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:32CLT 4th & 19 at CLT 44, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:55CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 39, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:46CLT 4th & 24 at LOU 43, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−<0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:03LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:49LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:47LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:00LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:05LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:27LOU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:59LOU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:05LOU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:36CLT Touchdown, down 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:43LOU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:16LOU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3999% → 99%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
98.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 6 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Geron Christian) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+17
98.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+6
98.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
98.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 36 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.7%
Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+1
98.7%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 1 yd to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
98.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.7%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 4 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
98.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Nick CookSimilar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
98.6%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
98.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
98.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
98.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
98.5%
Mason King punt for 34 yds , Austin Duke returns for no gain to the Charl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:192% → 2%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Kevin Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
98.5%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Nick CookSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
98.5%
Arthur Hart punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
98.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+37
98.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 22 yds to the LOUISVILLE 43 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (Ed Rolle) to the Charl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
98.5%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete, PENALTY CHARLOTTE roughing passer (Fugate, Jacione) 14 yards to the CHARLOTTE14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
98.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Charl 13Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
98.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:302% → 2%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.5%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the Charl 28Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+39
98.5%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 39 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
98.4%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Jamal Covington) to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
98.4%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Kalif Phillips for no gain to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-12
98.4%
Kevin Olsen sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 40 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kevin Olsen) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 27
50
-11
98.4%
Kevin Olsen sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 11 yards to the Charl 39 Kevin Olsen fumbled, recovered by Lvile Drew Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
98.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 20 yds to the Charl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
98.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+24
98.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.7%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-1
98.7%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
98.8%
Kevin Olsen run for no gain to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+1
98.8%
Arthur Hart run for 1 yd to the Charl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
98.8%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 43 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+18
98.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 18 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
98.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 7 yds to the Charl 18Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+17
98.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 17 yds to the Charl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.2%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 1 yd to the Charl 23Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
99.2%
Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-15
99.2%
Washington, Robert rush for 5 yards to the CHARLOTTE35, PENALTY CHARLOTTE holding (Perry, Casey) 15 yards to the CHARLOTTE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+8
99.2%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 8 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Arthur Hart punt for 32 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for no gain to the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+44
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 44 yds to the Charl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 16 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 19 yds · 3:291% → 0%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.5%
Robert Washington run for 9 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+5
99.4%
Ben LeMay run for 5 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.5%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaire Alexander) to the Charl 40Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 6
OWN 40
+10
99.4%
Robert Washington run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.5%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Casey Perry) to the Charl 45Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Ben LeMay run for no gain to the Charl 45Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+6
99.6%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 6 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
99.6%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Jarred Barr) to the Charl 46Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Juwan FoggieSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 14
OWN 46
-5
99.6%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Anthony Covington) to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 19
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 24 yds, downed at the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
99.5%
L.J. Scott run for 18 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+24
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 24 yds to the Charl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 13 yds to the Charl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
99.6%
Jackson, Lamar rush for loss of 9 yards to the CHARLOTTE19, PENALTY LOUISVILLE illegal block (Smith, Jaylen) 10 yards to the CHARLOTTE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
99.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to L.J. Scott for 20 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.7%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
99.7%
Matt Johnson run for 5 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+22
99.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the LOUISVILLE 23 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jeff Gemmell) to the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.7%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (Zach Duncan) to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 7 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+9
99.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 32 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 22Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
99.8%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 3 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Olsen, Kevin pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside 4 yards to the CHARLOTTE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to L.J. Scott for 6 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+20
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 20 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 15 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 18 yds to the Charl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Charl 1Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Workpeh KofaSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Kalif PhillipsSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Khane Pass at the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Malin Jones run for 1 yd to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+8
99.8%
Malin Jones run for 8 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Mason King punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Austin Duke at the Charl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Justin Bolus for 4 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+13
99.9%
Robert Washington run for 13 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 7 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-2
99.9%
Robert Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-10
99.9%
Olsen, Kevin pass complete to Duke, Austin for 63 yards to the LOUISVILLE0, PENALTY CHARLOTTE holding (Zacherl, Wolfgang) 10 yards to the CHARLOTTE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Robert Washington for 5 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+37
99.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds, downed at the LOUISVILLE 31 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass intercepted Kedrick Davis return for 5 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Ben LeMay for 15 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to T.L. Ford IISimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to Ben LeMaySimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for 24 yds for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Malik Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Devante Peete for 15 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Malik Williams for 7 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
99.9%
Malik Williams run for 6 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Charles Standberry for 16 yds to the Charl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-2
99.9%
Malik Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 18Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 18 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:460% → 0%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 20Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jonathan Greenard) to the Charl 25Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Ben LeMay run for 4 yds to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to T.L. Ford IISimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Juwan Foggie for 11 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to Austin Duke for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 39Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+14
99.9%
Kevin Olsen pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 14 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
99.9%
Kevin Olsen run for 3 yds to the Charl 44 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kevin Olsen) to the Charl 41Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Kevin Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 22
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Robert Washington run for 3 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 19
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds , Khane Pass returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:45100% → 100%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Malin Jones run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 8 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Malin Jones run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 10 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Malin Jones run for 1 yd to the Charl 48Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+10
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Malin Jones for 10 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Malin Jones for 8 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
99.9%
Malik Williams run for 12 yds to the Charl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
100.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 13 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
100.0%
Ben LeMay run for 1 yd to the Charl 19Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+16
100.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Austin Duke for 16 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the Charl 35Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
100.0%
Ben LeMay run for 4 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Kevin Olsen pass incomplete to T.L. Ford IISimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Arthur Hart punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Khane Pass at the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 7 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+1
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Ethan Horton run for 1 yd to the Lvile 30 Ethan Horton fumbled, recovered by Charl Tanner FlemingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 29TD
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
100.0%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Ben LeMay for 3 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 13
OPP 32
-5
100.0%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Darren Drake) to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 18
OPP 37
-6
100.0%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Chris Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 24
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Arthur Hart punt for 34 yds , Khane Pass returns for a loss of 9 yards for a TD Khane Pass fumbled, recovered by Charl Anthony Covington for a TD, (Stephen Muscarello KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:11100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
100.0%
Malik Williams run for 19 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
100.0%
Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
100.0%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
100.0%
Malin Jones run for 5 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
100.0%
Malin Jones run for 7 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:00
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 3:47
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 6:49
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com