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TOL

Toledo 35 at Western Michigan 55

WMU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.1WMU 77.6%Butch Hampton 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 17 · Q2 14:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:03 · Butch Hampton 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense+4.1Pregame prior+20.1Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:16: Kareem Hunt run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:02: Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +5.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:56: Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +10.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:47: Jamauri Bogan run for 27 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:30: Carrington Thompson 9 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick) — WMU win probability +2.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:18TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:03WMU 4th & 6 at TOL 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:16WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:55TOL 4th & 2 at WMU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:02TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 42, down 10
    Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:56TOL 4th & 20 at TOL 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−2.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:30TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:08WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 48, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:10WMU 4th & 6 at TOL 6, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:53WMU 4th & 8 at TOL 34, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 14:48WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:27TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:18WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:16TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:02WMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:56WMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:47WMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:30WMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:38TOL Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:53TOL Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:41WMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:35TOL Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
76.9%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted for a TD Asantay Brown return for 21 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2123% → 24%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.9%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+41
76.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 41 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
76.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
76.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 16 yds to the WMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.8%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the WMich 9Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
76.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 9 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 7:0976% → 78%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
76.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
76.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+9
76.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 9 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.3%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
76.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
76.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 9 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
76.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
76.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+8
76.4%
Zach Terrell run for 8 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
76.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jamauri Bogan for 19 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
76.6%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+12
76.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+1
76.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Toled 14Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
77.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 14 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
77.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
77.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
77.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-3
77.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 46 yds , Darius Phillips returns for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:1477% → 78%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
77.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 16 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
77.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+8
78.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 8 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
78.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
78.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
77.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
78.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 16 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
78.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.0%
Zach Terrell run for no gain to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael Henry, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
77.6%
Butch Hampton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:4722% → 28%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+27
77.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 27 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
77.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
76.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
76.7%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, De. (BEAL, Sam), PENALTY WMU pass interference (BEAL, Sam) 15 yards to the WMU38, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
71.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.0%
Zach Terrell run for no gain to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
72.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 7 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
72.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+22
72.2%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 45 yds, downed at the WESTMICH 26 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, kick catching interference (-23 Yards) to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4929% → 28%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
71.3%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 47 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by Toled Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+1
72.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+9
72.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 9 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-2
72.1%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:4874% → 81%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
74.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 13 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
74.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
74.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
74.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
74.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
74.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+9
74.2%
Zach Terrell run for 9 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
74.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 11 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
74.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
74.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 3Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
80.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
80.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael Roberts, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+9
81.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 9 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
80.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
79.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+7
80.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 7 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
79.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+12
80.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+1
79.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
79.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds, downed at the WMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
80.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 6:0482% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
81.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
81.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the WMich 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
81.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jamauri Bogan for 3 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
81.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+20
82.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 20 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan MartinSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+17
82.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 17 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
82.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 10 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
82.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
82.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 11 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+28
91.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 28 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
90.2%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
90.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Justin FergusonSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-9
91.1%
Logan Woodside sacked by Keion Adams for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+16
91.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 43 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 16 yds to the WMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:1794% → 97%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
93.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 12 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
93.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+11
93.6%
TERRELL, Zach pass incomplete to THOMPSON, C, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (MARTIN, Jordan) 11 yards to the TOLEDO27, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
97.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 27 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Keion Adams for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 9 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by WMich Nathan Braster , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Carrington Thompson 9 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.2%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 28Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+17
99.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to N/A for 17 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
99.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
99.6%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WMich 48Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
99.7%
James Coleman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 1:560% → 2%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
99.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 28 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Delando Johnson, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, targeting (Caleb Bailey) to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
99.8%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to TEAM, PENALTY WMU pass interference (BEAL, Sam) 15 yards to the WMU3, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2899% → 100%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+61
98.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 61 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
99.2%
TERRELL, Zach sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TOLEDO20 (TAAFE, Tyler), PENALTY TOLEDO face mask (MARTIN, Jordan) 8 yards to the TOLEDO7, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
99.8%
Butch Hampton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:170% → 1%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 2
OPP 0
0
99.8%
HUNT, Kareem rush for 23 yards to the WMU49 (BROWN, Asantay), PENALTY WMU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY TOLEDO face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+47
99.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 47 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.8%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
98.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 21 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
99.0%
Tom Flacco run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
99.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
98.9%
James Coleman punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 23 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
99.2%
HUNT, Kareem rush for 12 yards to the WMU45 (TRANQUILL, J), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal block 10 yards to the TOLEDO33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+13
99.2%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+33
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Darius Phillips return for 33 yds to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:4499% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+11
99.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 11 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 7 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:060% → 1%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+46
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 46 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
99.9%
Terry Swanson run for 27 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the WMich 2Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:56
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 3:02
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 12:16
Kareem Hunt run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com