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NIU

Northern Illinois 31 at Kent State 21

KENT
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:40 · Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.5Pregame prior−13.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:03: George Bollas 85 Yd Run (Shane Hynes Kick) — KENT win probability +8.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:51: Jordan Huff 1 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +14.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:14: Ernest Calhoun 57 Yd pass from George Bollas (Shane Hynes Kick) — KENT win probability +19.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:34: Joel Bouagnon 9 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +15.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:49: Joel Bouagnon 2 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +11.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:40NIU 4th & 1 at KENT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q3 1:03NIU 4th & 2 at KENT 17, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%−2.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−15.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:34NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:03KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:51NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:14KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:34NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:49NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:05KENT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
16 plays · 24 yds · 6:0663% → 67%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
37.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 13
0
37.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+7
37.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
37.3%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to D.J. Brown for 19 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
36.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
36.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+7
36.9%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
36.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+9
36.5%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 9 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
36.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
36.4%
Daniel Santacaterina run for 3 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
36.6%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
36.9%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
36.3%
Kenny Golladay run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+25
36.7%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Shane Wimann for 25 yds to the KntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.0%
Daniel Santacaterina 3 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:5034% → 43%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
34.2%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 15Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+85
43.1%
George Bollas 85 Yd Run (Shane Hynes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:0558% → 73%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+34
42.5%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 34 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
39.7%
Aregeros Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 29Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+28
40.8%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 28 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.7%
Jordan Huff 1 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:1833% → 52%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
32.8%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Justin RankinSimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+57
52.3%
Ernest Calhoun 57 Yd pass from George Bollas (Shane Hynes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0554% → 63%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
46.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
46.0%
Daniel Santacaterina run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+44
46.9%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Christian Blake for 44 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.4%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
40.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+6
42.6%
Daniel Santacaterina run for 6 yds to the KntSt 17Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
36.8%
Christian Hagan 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1766% → 81%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
34.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 31 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.0%
Joel Bouagnon 9 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7INT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:2580% → 96%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
20.3%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
19.5%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Shane Wimann for 8 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
19.2%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 8
50
0
19.0%
Daniel Santacaterina pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 8
50
+32
19.4%
Daniel Santacaterina pass complete to Shane Wimann for 32 yds to the KntSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
18.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the KntSt 13Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
18.3%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the KntSt 13Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+8
14.4%
Clayton Glasper run for 8 yds to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
14.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 9Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
14.1%
Daniel Santacaterina run for no gain to the KntSt 9 NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
14.9%
SANTACATERINA D pass incomplete to BLAKE, Christia (REFUGE, Elcee), PENALTY KENT pass interference (REFUGE, Elcee) 7 yards to the KENT2, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.6%
Joel Bouagnon 2 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 21 yds · 2:463% → 10%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
2.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Charles Chandler for 23 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.9%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Charles ChandlerSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
2.9%
George Bollas sacked by Ladell Fleming for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 31Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+17
2.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Charles Chandler for 17 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
3.0%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Charles Chandler, broken up by Jackson AbreschSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
3.0%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Mike CarriganSimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
2.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 12 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.2%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Ernest Calhoun, broken up by Sean FolliardSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
3.1%
George Bollas pass complete to Raekwon James for 8 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+7
3.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Raekwon James for 7 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
3.7%
BOLLAS, George pass intercepted by OLOOTU, Mayomi at the NIU0, OLOOTU, Mayomi return to the NIU12 (RANKIN, Justin), PENALTY NIU pass interference (OLOOTU, Mayomi) 15 yards to the NIU10, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
3.7%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Ernest Calhoun, broken up by Dwayne MiltonSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
10.3%
Brice Fackler 10 Yd pass from George Bollas (Shane Hynes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:14
Ernest Calhoun 57 Yd pass from George Bollas (Shane Hynes Kick)
+19.6
TD · Q4 14:34
Joel Bouagnon 9 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)
-15.5
TD · Q3 9:51
Jordan Huff 1 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com