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BUF

Buffalo 19 at Bowling Green 27

BGSU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:13 · Kyle Deween punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+23.2Home team on offense+1.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:18: Jordan Johnson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED) — BUF win probability +7.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:02: Grant Rohach pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BUF win probability +11.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:04: Jake Suder 28 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: Leonard Skattebo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:58: Grant Rohach pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +8.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:50BUF 4th & 23 at BUF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:00BGSU 4th & 1 at BUF 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:13BUF 4th & 6 at BGSU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BGSU 4th & 2 at BUF 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:38BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:01BGSU 4th & 2 at BUF 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:36BGSU 4th & 5 at BUF 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:40BGSU 4th & 4 at BUF 12, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:04BGSU 4th & 8 at BUF 11, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−11.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:55BUF 4th & 6 at BGSU 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:46BUF 4th & 22 at BUF 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:35BGSU 4th & 14 at BUF 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 8:21BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:18BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:56BGSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:02BUF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:50BGSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:58BUF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-12
77.9%
James Knapke sacked by Chris Ford for a loss of 12 yards to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 14
+13
77.9%
Fred Coppet run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+15
77.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 15 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
77.9%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-5
77.9%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 43 Fred Coppet fumbled, forced by Boise Ross, recovered by Buff Boise RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
77.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 45 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 18
OWN 35
0
77.3%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Izaah LunsfordSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 18
OWN 35
-5
77.3%
Grant Rohach sacked by Gus Schwieterman for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 23
OWN 30
0
77.4%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Jordan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 23
OWN 30
+9
77.5%
Kyle Deween punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 40 , Marquis Zimmerman returns for 9 yds to the BwGrn 40 Marquis Zimmerman fumbled, forced by Dev Lamour,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0877% → 79%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
77.2%
Donovan Wilson run for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
77.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+10
77.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 10 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
77.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 17 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
77.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 9 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
77.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
77.4%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
78.6%
Fred Coppet run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
78.0%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-4
78.0%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+12
78.2%
Grant Rohach run for 12 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+6
78.2%
Kyle Deween punt for 48 yds , Marquis Zimmerman returns for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
78.1%
Josh Cleveland run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
78.4%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
78.4%
Josh Cleveland run for 23 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
78.6%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 39 Fred Coppet fumbled, recovered by BwGrn James MorganSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 13
OPP 39
0
78.4%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+12
78.1%
Fred Coppet run for 12 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
78.2%
James Morgan run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.9%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
78.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+24
78.2%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 24 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
77.1%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
77.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-5
77.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
77.2%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
77.8%
Kyle Deween punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 0:5678% → 78%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
78.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
78.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
78.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
78.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
78.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.7%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
78.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 14 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
78.9%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
78.9%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
79.0%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
79.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+1
78.6%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 23
-14
78.1%
James Morgan sacked by Remaine Douglas and Joe Keels for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.0%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
77.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-6
77.5%
Grant Rohach sacked by N/A and Trenton Greene for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
78.4%
Kyle Deween punt for 31 yds , Marquis Zimmerman returns for no gain to the BwGrn 30 Marquis Zimmerman fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Isaiah GourdineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
78.2%
Fred Coppet run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
79.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 8 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
79.4%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
78.9%
Leonard Skattebo run for 3 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
79.4%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
79.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 7 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
78.9%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
78.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4122% → 30%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
77.6%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 27 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
70.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:1573% → 80%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
73.4%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
73.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Josh Cleveland, broken up by Brandon CrawfordSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+15
72.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 15 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Isaiah Gourdine, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 0
+52
79.7%
Fred Coppet run for 52 yds for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Buff 0, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:5420% → 34%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
79.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
78.5%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 7 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
77.8%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
50
0
77.5%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
50
+11
78.2%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 11 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
77.5%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 8 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+31
65.8%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0672% → 72%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
71.6%
Donovan Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+12
71.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 12 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Janarvis Pough, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
72.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0029% → 33%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
70.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
70.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
71.3%
Grant Rohach run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
50
+25
68.5%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 25 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
67.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-9
67.3%
Grant Rohach sacked by Trenton Greene for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 33 Grant Rohach fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Trenton Greene , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:5671% → 76%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
71.3%
Josh Cleveland run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
73.4%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
73.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 15 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
74.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
74.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
73.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Janarvis Pough, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+11
72.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
74.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 5 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
74.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
73.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
76.2%
Jake Suder 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
72.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
72.5%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 6 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+7
70.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
70.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 37 Jordan Johnson fumbled, forced by Brandon Harris, recovered by BwGrn Izaah LunsfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2578% → 85%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
78.0%
Fred Coppet run for 9 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+15
77.7%
Fred Coppet run for 15 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
78.9%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+3
78.8%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
77.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
85.4%
Jake Suder 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:0917% → 17%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.7%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Johnathan Hawkins, broken up by Nate LockeSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.6%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.3%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Trenton GreeneSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
81.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+19
81.7%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 19 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
79.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
78.1%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+1
80.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-12
83.3%
Grant Rohach sacked by Terrance Bush for a loss of 12 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:5788% → 95%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
87.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 7 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
87.8%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
87.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
88.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 24 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
88.2%
Donovan Wilson run for 4 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+14
88.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 14 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.2%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.3%
Leonard Skattebo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
92.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
92.1%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 5 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
92.1%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-9
93.1%
Grant Rohach sacked by David Konowalski and Terrance Bush for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+16
93.3%
Kyle Deween punt for 48 yds , Will Watson returns for 16 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2796% → 97%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
96.1%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+16
96.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
96.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
96.1%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-8
96.8%
James Morgan sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:294% → 13%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
96.2%
Grant Rohach sacked by Shannon Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+30
96.3%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 30 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
95.9%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 52 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.0%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:3793% → 96%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
92.9%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
93.4%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
93.1%
Josh Cleveland run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
50
+15
93.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 15 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
94.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+10
96.3%
Donovan Wilson run for 10 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
96.3%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
96.3%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the Buff 22 Josh Cleveland fumbled, forced by Demone Harris, recovered by Buff Chris FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:425% → 9%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
94.8%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 8 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
94.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
94.3%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 21 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
93.0%
Grant Rohach run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
92.0%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Jamarl Eiland, broken up by Tavarus WadeSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
92.3%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 5 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.7%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Johnathan HawkinsSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
91.2%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 17 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
89.7%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 14 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
89.3%
Grant Rohach run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.1%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Brandon HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.9%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:02
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-11.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.1
TD · Q4 5:58
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com