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CMU

Central Michigan 21 at Eastern Michigan 26

EMU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2016 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.4EMU 77.2%Paul Fricano 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 17 · Q3 4:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:28 · Paul Fricano 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense+13.9Pregame prior−2.3Garbage-time factor+6.5Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:39: Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 42 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +6.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:38: Paul Fricano 41 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +8.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:31: Devon Spalding run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +20.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:34: Devon Spalding run for 41 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +35.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:21: Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — EMU win probability +52.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 19 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56EMU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:42CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:26EMU 4th & 5 at CMU 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:22CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:34EMU 4th & 4 at CMU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54EMU 4th & 20 at EMU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−4.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:22CMU 4th & 7 at EMU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−1.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:28EMU 4th & 5 at CMU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:21CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 24, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:38EMU 4th & 4 at CMU 24, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:21EMU 4th & 4 at CMU 40, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−2.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:15CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:09EMU 4th & 4 at CMU 44, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−3.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:34CMU 4th & 1 at EMU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−9.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−11.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:37EMU 4th & 6 at CMU 33, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 14.4 ptsWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%−14.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−27.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:56EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:39EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:08CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:31CMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:34CMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−1.9
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:21EMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.7%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+35
42.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 35 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
42.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the CMich 46 Jahray Hayes fumbled, forced by Juan Giraldo,Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
42.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 13 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
42.7%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the EMich 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
42.7%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 42 Devon Spalding fumbled, recovered by CMich Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 42
-7
42.7%
Cooper Rush sacked by Pat O'Connor for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Cooper Rush fumbled, , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
50
0
42.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:5244% → 46%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
43.7%
Blake Banham run for 10 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
43.8%
Blake Banham run for 14 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
43.9%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
44.0%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
44.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 1
50
+50
46.3%
Blake Banham run for 50 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
46.1%
Cooper Rush run for 6 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
46.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+3
46.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
46.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 55 yds, downed at the EMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4INT
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
47.5%
Brogan Roback run for 8 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
47.8%
Blake Banham run for no gain to the EMich 26Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+10
47.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 10 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.8%
Blake Banham run for 1 yd to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+25
47.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 25 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
48.2%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+8
48.2%
Blake Banham run for 8 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
48.3%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+17
48.3%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Amari Coleman return for 17 yds to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0150% → 49%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
49.9%
Devon Spalding run for 15 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
49.6%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
49.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
50.0%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+37
51.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 37 yds , Isaac Holder returns for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:0851% → 61%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
51.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 11 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
51.4%
Blake Banham run for 3 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
51.8%
Blake Banham run for 3 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
51.5%
Brogan Roback run for 5 yds to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
52.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+7
52.1%
Breck Turner run for 7 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
52.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+15
51.6%
Brogan Roback run for 15 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
54.0%
TURNER, Breck rush for 3 yards to the CMU24 (ANNESE, Tony), PENALTY EMU personal foul (TERRELL, Darien) 15 yards to the CMU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 25
OPP 42
+42
60.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 42 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 5:2542% → 48%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+43
57.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 43 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
56.4%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
56.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
56.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 6 yds to the EMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
56.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 5 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+1
56.1%
Cooper Rush run for 1 yd to the EMich 13Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
56.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 6 yds to the EMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
56.1%
Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the EMich 1Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.4%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 1:3457% → 58%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
56.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 7 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+9
57.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 9 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
57.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 1 yd to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
57.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dieuly AristildeSimilar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+8
57.8%
Brogan Roback run for 8 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+5
57.9%
BARNES, Austin punt 26 yards to the CMU26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CMU roughing the kicker (FOUNTAIN, Malik) 5 yards to the CMU47, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
60.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
60.0%
Blake Banham run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-15
59.3%
BANHAM, Blake rush for loss of 2 yards to the CMU40 (FOUNTAIN, Malik), PENALTY EMU personal foul (LEATIOTA, Jimmy) 15 yards to the EMU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+11
57.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 11 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
58.1%
Austin Barnes punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
59.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
59.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
60.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremiah HarrisSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
60.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 38 yds , Isaac Holder returns for no gain to the EMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5563% → 62%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
62.6%
Brogan Roback run for 1 yd to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+13
62.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 13 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
63.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 10 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
63.1%
Brogan Roback run for 7 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-15
63.1%
ROBACK, Brogan pass complete to DAUGHERTY, Eddie for 5 yards to the CMU18 (BRISSON-FAST, N;WALLER, Tyree), PENALTY EMU personal foul (GARDNER, Cole) 15 yards to the CMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+14
61.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 14 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
63.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dieuly Aristilde, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
62.2%
Paul Fricano 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:3439% → 40%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
60.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Brandon ChildressSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
61.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 4 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+35
61.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 35 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
58.0%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to CHAPMAN, Mark, QB hurry by CROSBY, Maxx, PENALTY CMU illegal formation 5 yards to the EMU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+5
61.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 5 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+55
59.6%
Brian Eavey 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.4%
Blake Banham run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
63.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dan Buschman for 7 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
62.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 11 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
65.3%
Brogan Roback run for 1 yd to the EMich 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-8
65.2%
Brogan Roback sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 32 Brogan Roback fumbled, recovered by EMich Cole Gardner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 20
OWN 32
0
61.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dieuly Aristilde, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 20
OWN 32
+9
60.9%
Austin Barnes punt for 43 yds , Emmett Thomas returns for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
63.5%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
61.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
62.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
62.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 9 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
61.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
61.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Joe BacciSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
61.2%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
61.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Brandon ChildressSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
64.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaac Holder at the EMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:3470% → 77%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+26
70.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 26 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
71.1%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-10
71.7%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BROWNING, Sam, PENALTY EMU holding (ARMSTRONG, Ka'John) 10 yards to the EMU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+10
70.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 10 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+27
70.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 27 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
73.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 26 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
73.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q3 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
73.9%
Brogan Roback run for 5 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to John NiupalauSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
77.2%
Paul Fricano 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
76.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
76.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 5 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+4
77.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
78.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0880% → 88%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
80.1%
Blake Banham run for 1 yd to the EMich 48Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+22
80.0%
Blake Banham run for 22 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete, broken up by Kelby LattaSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
80.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dieuly AristildeSimilar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+6
79.6%
Brogan Roback run for 6 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
87.6%
Paul Fricano 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:0115% → 39%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
85.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 16 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
83.0%
Devon Spalding run for 13 yds to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
82.5%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to CHAPMAN, Mark, PENALTY EMU holding (PACE, DaQuan) 10 yards to the EMU38, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
82.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 10 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
80.8%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to WILLIS, Corey, QB hurry by O'CONNOR, Pat, PENALTY EMU offside 5 yards to the EMU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+10
80.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 10 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
80.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 6 yds to the EMich 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
80.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the EMich 5Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
60.6%
Devon Spalding run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0080% → 77%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
79.9%
Eddie Daugherty run for 7 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-1
79.8%
Blake Banham run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
78.8%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
77.0%
Austin Barnes punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2130% → 25%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
70.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Vince CalhounSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
71.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Derric WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
72.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
75.0%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaac Holder at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
50
+2
83.4%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
83.3%
Blake Banham run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+3
82.1%
Brogan Roback run for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
80.9%
Austin Barnes punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 5:1527% → 69%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
73.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 5 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+4
73.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+12
73.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 12 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
71.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+14
71.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
50
+7
67.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 7 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
66.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
66.6%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the EMich 41Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
31.5%
Devon Spalding run for 41 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:0446% → 96%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
45.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 5 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+30
48.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 30 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
52.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dieuly AristildeSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
52.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sam Browning for no gain to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+4
50.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 4 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+9
44.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 9 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
95.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Nigel Kilby, broken up by Nathan RickettsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:1118% → 17%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
82.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 16 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
82.6%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Jeremiah Harris return for 3 yds to the EMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+52.4
TD · Q4 2:34
Devon Spalding run for 41 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-35.2
TD · Q4 12:31
Devon Spalding run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com