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BALL

Ball State 20 at Miami (OH) 21

M-OH
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2016 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:54 · Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 6 yds to the BalSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+15.5+7.80−7.8−15.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+10.8Home team on offense−3.1Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:00: Riley Neal run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +7.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:41: Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:25: Morgan Hagee 25 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +4.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:44: Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +25.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:42: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 24 — M-OH win probability +9.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:13M-OH 4th & 20 at BALL 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:54M-OH 4th & 10 at BALL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:23M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 29, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00BALL 4th & 14 at M-OH 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−8.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:25BALL 4th & 8 at M-OH 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−11.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:19M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:34BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00M-OH 4th & 25 at BALL 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−5.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−2.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:37BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 40, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:44BALL 4th & 2 at M-OH 48, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:26M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:19BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:00BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:41M-OH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:44M-OH Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
65.5%
N/A run for 6 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+21
65.5%
Riley Neal run for 21 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
65.5%
N/A run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
50
0
65.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
50
-2
65.5%
- 15 pass complete to - 25 for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
65.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 26 yds, downed at the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
50
-2
65.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 2:1265% → 67%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
65.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
50
+5
65.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
65.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 9 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
67.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 36 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
66.6%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+21
66.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 21 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.4%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
66.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
66.4%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
66.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 36 yds, downed at the MiaOh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 5:1067% → 68%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
67.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+11
67.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
67.7%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+37
67.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 22 yds to the MIAMIOH 35 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, targeting (David Moore) to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
67.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 25Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-3
67.9%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 18
OPP 28
-5
67.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 23
OPP 33
-6
67.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by John Whitman III for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 29
OPP 39
+9
67.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 9 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 20
OPP 30
+47
68.0%
Nick Dowd 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:5432% → 38%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+40
68.1%
James Gilbert run for 40 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
66.7%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
66.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+25
62.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 25 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1464% → 63%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
64.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 12 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
65.1%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
64.7%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
63.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
63.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4837% → 46%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
63.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 12 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
62.8%
Darian Green run for 15 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
61.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 15 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
61.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 16 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
61.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 8 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+11
61.1%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.1%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
56.4%
Kenny Young run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+16
57.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
58.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
58.4%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+8
57.8%
Gus Ragland run for 8 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
58.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
58.4%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-3
57.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 41 Gus Ragland fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+6
56.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 6 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
51.1%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+12
50.1%
Darian Green run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
49.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+10
49.5%
James Gilbert run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
49.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
49.3%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
49.8%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
49.3%
Riley Neal pass intercepted, touchback. Heath Harding return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.4%
Gus Ragland sacked by Anthony Winbush for 0 yards to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
52.3%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
51.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
51.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 2:0554% → 58%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
46.3%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+14
46.3%
Riley Neal run for 14 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
44.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
44.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
44.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 4 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
44.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
44.4%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
44.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 4 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
43.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete, broken up by De'Andre MontgomerySimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+20
44.6%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive holding (Junior McMullen) to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
42.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
43.1%
Riley Neal sacked by Ikeem Allen for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 14 BALL ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Riley Neal) to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
42.2%
Morgan Hagee 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
56.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:1647% → 59%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
53.3%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
51.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
51.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 14 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
51.4%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
50.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr., broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+15
51.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 15 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
50.2%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-3
50.2%
Darian Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
51.4%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to GREEN, Darian for no gain to the MIAMI17 (DANIELS, D.), PENALTY MIAMI OF (JONES, JT) 5 yards to the MIAMI12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
51.4%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
50.2%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
50.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr., broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
46.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
41.2%
Morgan Hagee 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
45.5%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
44.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 7 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+15
45.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 15 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
48.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Josh MillerSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
48.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
46.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
44.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for no gain to the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
42.2%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+2
40.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
42.0%
Riley Neal run for 11 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
40.0%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+6
42.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
39.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Deondre DanielsSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
41.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:4641% → 36%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
41.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 19 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
44.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 3
50
+2
45.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
45.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-11
46.1%
Gus Ragland sacked by Brian Whitaker and Anthony Winbush for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 21
OWN 43
+13
41.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 13 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+14
44.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 14 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
47.8%
Gus Ragland sacked by Stu Stanley for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+5
41.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-11
40.6%
Gus Ragland sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 11 yards to the BalSt 45 Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Gus Ragland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 25
OPP 45
0
36.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 38 yds, downed at the BalSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0066% → 68%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
33.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr., broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
34.2%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+4
34.3%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
33.0%
NEAL, Riley rush over right end for 4 yards to the BALLST23, out-of-bounds (REID, Tony), PENALTY BALLST holding (MABON, KeVonn) 9 yards to the BALLST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+11
33.2%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+12
33.4%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
30.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr., broken up by JT JonesSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
31.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 4 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+3
30.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
31.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1632% → 66%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 6 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
33.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 15 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
35.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 19 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
40.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 7 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
40.0%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
37.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 5 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
40.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-2
39.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+27
65.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
58.3%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
58.5%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
55.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
55.2%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
54.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 4 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
54.6%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
57.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 33 yds, downed at the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20END OF GAME
10 plays · 61 yds · 1:0067% → 80%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
66.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
66.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 7 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
70.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
72.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
72.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+50
70.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 50 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
79.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:44
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
+25.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+20.1
TD · Q3 14:41
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com