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BALL

Ball State 19 at Toledo 37

TOL
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2016 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:51 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+33.3Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:40: Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 10 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +4.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:14: Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 71 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:59: Jameson Vest 49 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:13: Morgan Hagee 37 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:28: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:03BALL 4th & 15 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:51BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:40TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:47BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:11TOL 4th & 4 at BALL 20, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:48TOL 4th & 4 at BALL 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:05BALL 4th & 6 at TOL 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:38TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:01BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:13BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 17
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:59TOL 4th & 16 at BALL 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:13BALL 4th & 2 at TOL 20, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:18BALL 4th & 5 at TOL 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:19TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:40BALL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:14TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:28TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:46BALL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 3:4212% → 13%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.7%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
87.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 11 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
87.4%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+8
87.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 8 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
87.1%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
86.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
86.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Toled 35 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Drake Miller) to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 18
OPP 45
+3
86.6%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
86.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
86.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
86.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds, downed at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 2:3687% → 87%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
86.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+8
86.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+19
86.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 19 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
86.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
86.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
86.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+16
86.2%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (David Moore) to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST down. (David Moore ejected for Targeting.)Similar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
87.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 28 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1413% → 13%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
86.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 12 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.6%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
86.6%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+4
86.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Teddy Williamson for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
86.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:0587% → 86%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
86.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 11 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
86.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
86.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+8
86.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 8 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
86.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
86.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
86.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3714% → 12%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
86.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 6 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
85.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
86.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+63
88.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds , Corey Jones returns for 63 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2812% → 12%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
88.2%
Riley Neal run for 13 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
88.0%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36 Riley Neal fumbled, recovered by Toled Zach QuinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5189% → 91%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
89.3%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
89.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
89.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Adam Kulon for 6 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-2
89.2%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
90.8%
Jameson Vest 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2010% → 15%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
90.3%
Riley Neal run for 35 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.8%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
89.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 9 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
89.9%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
89.7%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+15
89.7%
Darian Green run for 15 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
89.7%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 5Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 0
OPP 5
-5
89.8%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Vinnie Palazeti) to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
85.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 10 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 1:3986% → 85%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
86.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-5
85.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Nate Jeppesen) to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+18
85.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
86.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 19 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
86.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 6 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
86.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
86.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
85.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:4015% → 16%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
85.5%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+11
85.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
84.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 6 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
84.3%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
85.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
85.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 27 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
84.5%
KeVonn Mabon run for no gain to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
84.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+4
85.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Teddy Williamson for 4 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
84.0%
Morgan Hagee 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1285% → 84%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
85.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
84.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
83.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1416% → 16%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
84.4%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
84.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
84.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+53
84.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the TOLEDO 18 TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Olasunkanmi Adeniyi) to the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
17 plays · 71 yds · 1:5084% → 88%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
84.1%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
84.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+36
84.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 36 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
86.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
85.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 7 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
85.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 7 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
85.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
85.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 5 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
85.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
85.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 13 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
86.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for no gain to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
86.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+37
88.1%
Jameson Vest 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:3387% → 92%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
86.7%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+71
92.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 71 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:448% → 8%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.1%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
91.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 5 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.2%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 62 yds, downed at the Toled 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:0693% → 97%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
92.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+2
93.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+39
93.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 39 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
94.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Paul Perschon) to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+6
94.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+25
94.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 25 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
94.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-2
94.8%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
94.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+49
97.1%
Jameson Vest 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:363% → 6%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.8%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
96.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 8 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
96.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 15 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
96.9%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+1
96.6%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
96.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 5 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
96.8%
KeVonn Mabon run for 2 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
97.2%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
94.4%
Morgan Hagee 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4196% → 99%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
95.8%
Art Thompkins run for 18 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Anthony Winbush) to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
96.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
98.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19DOWNS
17 plays · 55 yds · 5:522% → 1%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
98.5%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+7
98.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 7 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
98.4%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
98.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+7
98.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
98.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 2
50
+5
98.8%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
98.8%
Darian Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+8
98.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 8 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
98.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 6 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
99.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Aaron HeppSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20INT
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:3799% → 100%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 5 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-4
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+21
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 21 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
99.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
99.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted, touchback. Josh Miller return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:341% → 2%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
99.5%
Neal, Riley pass incomplete to Hepp, Aaron, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Blazevich, Michael) 15 yards to the BALLST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 9 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
99.5%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+5
99.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 5 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
99.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 20 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 5 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
99.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
98.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
99.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+9
99.6%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
99.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:14
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 71 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 10:40
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 10 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-4.5
FG · Q3 3:13
Morgan Hagee 37 yd FG GOOD
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com