Try the model
OHIO

Ohio 20 at Central Michigan 27

CMU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2016 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:46 · Jack Sheldon punt for 63 yds, downed at the Ohio 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense+1.1Pregame prior+5.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:57: Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +11.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:17: Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +11.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:20: Dorian Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +28.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:51: Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 8 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +28.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:08CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56OHIO 4th & 1 at CMU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:10CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30CMU 4th & 6 at OHIO 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:23OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:47CMU 4th & 11 at OHIO 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:52OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:46CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 26, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:13OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:26OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45CMU 4th & 15 at OHIO 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−3.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−9.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:21OHIO 4th & 5 at CMU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00CMU 4th & 25 at CMU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−6.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:43CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:13OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−2.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:23OHIO 4th & 5 at CMU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−1.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:34OHIO 4th & 13 at CMU 15, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:57CMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:25CMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:17OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:20OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:51CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3758% → 58%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
58.3%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+1
58.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+6
58.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 6 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
58.2%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 45 yds , Papi White returns for no gain to the Ohio 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 57 yds · 4:0442% → 42%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
58.3%
Quinton Maxwell run for 3 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+22
58.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 22 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
58.0%
Papi White run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+17
58.0%
Quinton Maxwell run for 17 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
57.7%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
57.7%
Quinton Maxwell run for 5 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
57.8%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
57.9%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the CMich 17 Dorian Brown fumbled, forced by Tyree Waller, recovered by CMich Malik FountainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4258% → 58%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
58.4%
Rush, Cooper pass complete to Willis, Corey for 2 yards to the CENTMICH19, PENALTY OHIO offside (O'Neill, Aidan) 5 yards to the CENTMICH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 5
OWN 22
0
58.5%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
58.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+1
58.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Cooper Rush for 1 yd to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
57.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0942% → 42%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
58.0%
Quinton Maxwell run for a loss of 11 yards to the Ohio 26 Quinton Maxwell fumbled, recovered by CMich Joe Ostman , return for no gain to the Ohio 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1860% → 60%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
59.5%
Jay Roberson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+7
58.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 7 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
59.7%
Brian Eavey 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5240% → 40%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
59.6%
Dorian Brown run for 15 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
59.0%
Quinton Maxwell run for 2 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-1
58.9%
Quinton Maxwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 46Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
59.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
60.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:2860% → 59%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
59.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 22 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
60.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+19
60.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 19 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
60.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
60.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
60.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
59.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 37 yds, downed at the Ohio 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3840% → 39%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
60.2%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Ohio 8Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+7
60.4%
Quinton Maxwell run for 7 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
60.1%
Papi White run for 1 yd to the Ohio 16Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
60.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Troy MangenSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+4
60.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+5
61.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gary Jones) to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.3%
Quinton Maxwell run for 2 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
60.9%
Quinton Maxwell run for 4 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-3
61.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 49 yds , Emmett Thomas returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 17 Emmett Thomas fumbled, recovered by CMich Ray GoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5960% → 59%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
60.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 5 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+1
60.1%
Jay Roberson run for 1 yd to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+3
59.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 3 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
58.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 63 yds, downed at the Ohio 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2740% → 38%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
60.0%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by Chris Kantzavelos for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 9Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+3
60.5%
Quinton Maxwell run for 3 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
61.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
62.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:1062% → 71%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
62.3%
Rush, Cooper pass incomplete to Willis, Corey, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (Nelson, Kylan) 15 yards to the OHIO45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTMICH.Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
63.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jamil Sabbagh for 6 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
63.4%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.1%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the Ohio 1Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1431% → 29%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
69.1%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
69.4%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
70.4%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
71.1%
Michael Farkas punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:3570% → 85%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
70.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 6 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+14
71.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 14 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
72.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 11 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
72.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 13 yds to the Ohio 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
73.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+1
73.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the Ohio 13Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
85.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 1:0518% → 24%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
82.1%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
81.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+11
82.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 11 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
81.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
81.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Kyle Belack for 10 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
80.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
81.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 8 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+9
79.9%
Quinton Maxwell run for 9 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
78.9%
Maxwell, Quinton pass incomplete to Smith, Sebastian, PENALTY CENTMICH roughing passer (Dean, Jabari) 15 yards to the CENTMICH17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+34
76.2%
Louie Zervos 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
83.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3320% → 30%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.3%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+24
80.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 24 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
78.7%
Quinton Maxwell run for 5 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-2
78.5%
Papi White run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
79.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+10
80.7%
Maxwell, Quinton pass complete to Maxwell, Quinton for loss of 8 yards to the CENTMICH48, PENALTY CENTMICH holding 10 yards to the CENTMICH30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
80.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 15 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.7%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
80.9%
Quinton Maxwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
69.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:2573% → 81%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 9 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
75.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
75.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 26 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
77.9%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
77.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
77.5%
Rush, Cooper pass complete to Conklin, Tyler for 8 yards to the OHIO35, PENALTY CENTMICH holding off-setting, PENALTY OHIO Offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+18
77.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 18 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
80.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 30Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+4
80.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 4 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+18
80.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 18 yds to the Ohio 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
81.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the Ohio 5Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-19
81.3%
Cooper Rush run for a loss of 19 yards to the Ohio 24 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by CMich Cooper RushSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 24
+9
77.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 9 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
80.7%
Brian Eavey 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18FG
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:0618% → 27%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+58
81.9%
Dorian Brown run for 58 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
77.5%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
77.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+4
79.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
73.5%
Louie Zervos 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 2:0079% → 80%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
78.6%
Cooper Rush sacked by Toran Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 12Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 18
OWN 12
-5
78.3%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 7Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 23
OWN 7
-2
79.3%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 5Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 25
OWN 5
0
79.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds, downed at the Ohio 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:2025% → 54%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+53
74.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 53 yds to the CMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.9%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1758% → 57%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
58.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-3
59.7%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+17
55.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 17 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
62.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 2 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
62.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
59.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jay RobersonSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
57.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0747% → 43%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
53.0%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 7Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+3
54.1%
Quinton Maxwell run for 3 yds to the Ohio 10Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
55.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
56.7%
Michael Farkas punt for 33 yds, downed at the Ohio 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:5963% → 90%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
62.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 11 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
64.5%
Jahray Hayes run for 10 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
64.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for no gain to the Ohio 22Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
64.4%
Corey Willis run for 4 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
62.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 9 yds to the Ohio 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
64.7%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the Ohio 9Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
64.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the Ohio 8Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 8 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24FUMBLE
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:1215% → 14%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Elijah BallSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
86.5%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
87.3%
Quinton Maxwell run for 10 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
84.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 13 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
83.0%
Quinton Maxwell run for no gain to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
83.8%
Quinton Maxwell run for 5 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
84.5%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Kyle BelackSimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
85.9%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 47 Quinton Maxwell fumbled, forced by Joe Ostman, recovered by CMichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5194% → 95%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.0%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
94.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
95.0%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the CMich 48 Jahray Hayes fumbled, forced by Kent Berger, recovered by Ohio Toran DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:4513% → 9%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
88.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Dorian Brown for 6 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
87.9%
Quinton Maxwell run for 9 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
85.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 8 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
83.7%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
83.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-8
86.0%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 13
OPP 15
0
91.4%
Quinton Maxwell pass intercepted, touchback. Sean Bunting return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:51
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 8 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+28.7
TD · Q4 14:20
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-28.6
TD · Q3 10:17
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com