2016 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2016 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:20 · Joseph Davidson punt for 52 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 16 Zaquon Tyson fumbled, recovered by KntSt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:43: Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:40: James Morgan pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:14: Fred Coppet run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:07: Nick Holley pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 56 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +14.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:26: Josh Cleveland run for 85 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 13:33KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.9%average punt
- Q1 12:20BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.2%average punt
- Q1 11:03KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it54.9%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.1%average punt
- Q1 9:13KENT 4th & 21 at KENT 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.4%−0.49% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q2 14:19KENT 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it47.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:19KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 17, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it32.0%−0.738% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%average punt
- Q3 7:38KENT 4th & 7 at BGSU 42, down 14Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it20.7%37% to convertField goal19.6%−1.130% to makePuntTheir call20.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 5:06KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 41, down 21Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it6.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:10BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 20, up 21Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.5%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 1:54KENT 4th & 23 at KENT 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it2.3%−1.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q4 8:50KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 45, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:43BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.6%97% to makeGo for two50.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:40BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.1%97% to makeGo for two66.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:14BGSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:07KENT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.2%97% to makeGo for two24.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:26BGSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:38BGSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:29BGSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1759% → 59%
BGSUDrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5942% → 42%
Q1 12:20
4TH & 6
OWN 28
-4
41.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 52 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 16 Zaquon Tyson fumbled, recovered by KntStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0258% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4443% → 43%
KENTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4058% → 57%
Q1 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-13
42.6%
Nick Holley sacked by Tyrik Jones for a loss of 13 yards to the BOWLGREEN 47 KENT ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nick Holley) to the KntSt 47Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 21
OWN 47
0
43.0%
Derek Adams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marquis Zimmerman at the BwGrn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD17 plays · 89 yds · 6:0743% → 50%
Q1 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+7
42.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+6
43.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 6 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+6
45.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Josh Cleveland for 6 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+10
44.5%
Morgan, James pass incomplete to Miller, Scott, PENALTY KENTST holding (Parker, Jamal) 10 yards to the KENTST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
45.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 18 yds to the KntSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0151% → 49%
BGSUDrive 8TD16 plays · 80 yds · 5:2952% → 66%
KENTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0137% → 35%
Q2 7:19
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
65.5%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marquis Zimmerman at the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:5167% → 87%
Q2 6:53
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-10
67.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (J.J. Beggan) to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+18
67.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 18 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+19
69.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 19 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
70.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the KntSt 21 Josh Cleveland fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Logan DietzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11TD5 plays · 78 yds · 0:4816% → 31%
BGSUDrive 12INT11 plays · 72 yds · 1:2873% → 74%
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14FUMBLE13 plays · 44 yds · 4:2975% → 81%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
76.5%
Morgan, James pass incomplete to Moore, Ronnie, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (Parker, Jamal) 15 yards to the KENTST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-10
77.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Hunter) to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 22
OWN 39
-10
78.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+13
78.2%
Morgan, James pass incomplete to Moore, Ronnie, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (Monday, Demetrius) 13 yards to the KENTST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-2
80.5%
Donovan Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 43 Donovan Wilson fumbled, recovered by KntSt Elcee RefugeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0723% → 21%
BGSUDrive 16TD1 play · 85 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:027% → 7%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
93.0%
Nick Holley pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 9 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4895% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:565% → 4%
Q3 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+10
95.6%
Nick Holley pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 10 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.6%
Holley, Nick pass sacked for loss of 13 yards to the KENTST34 (Greene, Trenton), PENALTY KENTST intentional grounding 0 yards to the KENTST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 23
OWN 34
0
96.2%
Derek Adams punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marquis Zimmerman at the BwGrn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD14 plays · 73 yds · 5:5798% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
98.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
99.8%
George Bollas pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 18 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
99.8%
George Bollas sacked by Tyrik Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 40Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Myles Washington for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marquis Zimmerman at the BwGrn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22TD10 plays · 85 yds · 6:06100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+10
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 10 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 15 yds to the KntSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 19 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23END OF GAME9 plays · 83 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
99.9%
George Bollas sacked by Dorian Hendrix for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 9Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+11
100.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Zaquon Tyson for 11 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+29
100.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Myles Washington for 29 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
100.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+18
100.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 18 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
100.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 30 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:14
Fred Coppet run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q2 2:07
Nick Holley pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 56 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 7:26
Josh Cleveland run for 85 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
+14.3