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M-OH

Miami (OH) 35 at Buffalo 24

BUF
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFUMBLEFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:29 · Adam Mitcheson 49 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior−30.9Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:03: Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +6.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:14: Tyree Jackson pass intercepted for a TD De'Andre Montgomery return for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd PAT MISSED) — M-OH win probability +7.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 2:13: Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards Tyree Jackson fumbled, recovered by MiaOh De'Andre Montgomery , return for 92 yds, (Nick Dowd PAT MISSED) — M-OH win probability +9.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:15: Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +3.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: Johnathan Hawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +3.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 8:29BUF 4th & 9 at M-OH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:29M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:56BUF 4th & 5 at M-OH 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:57BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 39, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 8, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:03BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:03BUF 4th & 10 at M-OH 22, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:56M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 43, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:41BUF 4th & 2 at midfield, down 13
    Close callPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:27M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:08BUF 4th & 9 at M-OH 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:08M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 44, up 10
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:09BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:57M-OH 4th & 3 at BUF 3, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:14M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:14M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:02M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:03M-OH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:14M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:15BUF Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:13BUF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4683% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
17.0%
Maurice Thomas run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
17.0%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+11
17.0%
[SGUN], RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to GARDNER, James (LEWIS, Cameron), PENALTY UB pass interference (LEWIS, Cameron) 11 yards to the MIAMI42, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
17.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 5 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
17.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+11
17.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Grant Niemiec for 11 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
17.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 40 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:4018% → 19%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
17.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+14
17.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 14 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
17.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 7 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+8
17.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
17.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 10 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
18.0%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+6
17.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
17.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
18.7%
Adam Mitcheson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
18.4%
Kenny Young run for no gain to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
18.5%
Maurice Thomas run for no gain to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
18.7%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
18.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 27 yds, downed at the Buff 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
19.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
19.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
19.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 2 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
19.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
19.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
19.2%
Kyle Deween punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:4581% → 83%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
19.5%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+8
19.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 8 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+70
19.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 70 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
18.7%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
19.3%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
17.1%
Gus Ragland run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
18.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
18.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Kyle Deween punt for 40 yds , Jared Murphy returns for no gain to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:0282% → 82%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
17.7%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+10
17.7%
Gus Ragland run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.6%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
17.7%
[PSTL], RAGLAND, Gus pass complete to WILLIAMS, R. for 46 yards to the UB19 (WILLIAMSON, Rya), PENALTY MIAMI ineligible downfield on pass (MCCOLLUM, Sam) 5 yards to the MIAMI30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+9
17.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 9 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
17.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+4
17.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 55 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 4 yds to the Buff 43 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
18.5%
[SGUN], HAWKINS, Johnat rush for 1 yard to the UB11 (JONES, JT;HARDING, Heath), PENALTY UB personal foul (O'HAGAN, James) 5 yards to the UB5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+3
18.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
18.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
18.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan HawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
18.1%
Kyle Deween punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the Buff 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:0883% → 89%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
17.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 15 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
17.0%
Maurice Thomas run for 16 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
17.0%
[SGUN], PENALTY MIAMI false start (HEIDEMAN, R.) 5 yards to the UB12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
17.1%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
17.1%
Gus Ragland sacked by Ishmael Hargrove and Jarrett Franklin for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
10.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
12.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 13 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
13.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
13.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
13.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
13.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
13.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 9 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
13.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
13.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
13.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+15
13.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Buchi Okafor for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Buchi Okafor) to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
13.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
13.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
13.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+8
13.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11FUMBLE TD
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
18.2%
Gus Ragland sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 5 yards Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by Buff Brandon Crawford , return for 0 yards , return for 9 yds, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
17.8%
Gus Ragland run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
17.3%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
17.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
17.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
18.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
18.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+6
18.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 2
50
0
18.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 23 yds, downed at the MiaOh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0083% → 85%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
16.6%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+8
16.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
16.7%
Gus Ragland run for no gain to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+5
15.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 18 , Jamarl Eiland returns for 5 yds to the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
17.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 3:4717% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
17.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 13 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
17.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
18.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
18.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
18.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+11
19.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
19.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
19.5%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to SCHRECK, Mason, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (HARDING, Heath) 6 yards to the MIAMI13, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
19.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
19.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Brad KoenigSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
18.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
19.1%
Adam Mitcheson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.3%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
18.8%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.2%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
18.7%
Maurice Thomas run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
18.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
19.3%
[SGUN], PENALTY MIAMI false start (HEIDEMAN, R.) 5 yards to the MIAMI32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+12
20.2%
Gus Ragland run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
19.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1919% → 12%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+20
11.7%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted for a TD De'Andre Montgomery return for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19FUMBLE TD
15 plays · 51 yds · 5:0013% → 5%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
13.1%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
12.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+10
12.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 10 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
13.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
13.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
13.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 2 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+6
13.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
13.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
14.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 6 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
14.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 3 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Kamathi Holsey) to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
14.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
14.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
14.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+92
4.5%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards Tyree Jackson fumbled, recovered by MiaOh De'Andre Montgomery , return for 92 yds, (Nick Dowd PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
3.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
3.3%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
3.3%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Buchi OkaforSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
3.2%
Kyle Deween punt, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 5:3998% → 100%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
50
-1
2.0%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
1.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
50
+19
2.0%
Gus Ragland run for 19 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
1.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+17
1.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 17 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
1.3%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.3%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
1.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
0.3%
Nick Dowd 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:350% → 4%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.4%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
0.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
0.4%
Grant Rohach run for 5 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
0.4%
Grant Rohach run for 1 yd to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
0.4%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.4%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+25
0.4%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 25 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
0.5%
Grant Rohach run for 20 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.6%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
0.5%
[SGUN], ROHACH, Grant pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (OKAFOR, Buchi) 6 yards to the MIAMI2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:0198% → 99%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
2.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside (Tatum Slack) to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
2.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+11
2.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
1.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
2.0%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-6
2.0%
Spencer McInnis run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+21
1.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 47 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 21 yds to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:492% → 6%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
2.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+8
2.0%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 8 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
2.1%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 13 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
2.2%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 12 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
2.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+13
2.5%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 13 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
2.6%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
2.6%
Grant Rohach pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
6.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
3.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-1
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 2:13
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards Tyree Jackson fumbled, recovered by MiaOh De'Andre Montgomery , return for 92 yds, (Nick Dowd PAT MISSED)
-9.6
TD · Q3 7:14
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted for a TD De'Andre Montgomery return for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd PAT MISSED)
-7.1
TD · Q2 10:03
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com