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TOL

Toledo 31 at Northern Illinois 24

NIU
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2016 · Guaranteed Rate Field
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:31 · Jacob Ambrose punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior−17.2Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:59: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 27 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +16.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 3:23: Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +17.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:32: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +22.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:31: Christian Hagan 22 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +16.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:15: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +28.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:37TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31NIU 4th & 6 at TOL 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:37TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:17TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:06TOL 4th & 18 at NIU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:27NIU 4th & 2 at TOL 47, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:16TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 29, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:17NIU 4th & 4 at TOL 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:21NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:40NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 30, up 4
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:04TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:14NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−5.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:48NIU 4th & 6 at TOL 44, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−3.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:58TOL 4th & 19 at TOL 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−8.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:31NIU 4th & 5 at TOL 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−3.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−22.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 0:22NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:41NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:59TOL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:09NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:23TOL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:32TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:15TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:1268% → 68%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+20
31.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 20 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
32.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
32.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds, downed at the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:4232% → 34%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
32.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
32.5%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-5
32.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+10
32.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 10 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
33.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+18
33.5%
Jordan Huff run for 18 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
33.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
34.0%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Joel BouagnonSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
33.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3766% → 65%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
33.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
33.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 5 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+11
34.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 11 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
34.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
34.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
34.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Kareem Hunt) to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
34.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
35.0%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Brown at the NoIll 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3235% → 34%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.8%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
34.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
34.6%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+13
34.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 51 yds , Corey Jones returns for 13 yds to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2065% → 64%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
34.9%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
34.8%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-12
35.1%
Logan Woodside sacked by Austin Smaha for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
36.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 43 yds , D.J. Brown returns for no gain to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:3836% → 45%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
35.9%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+8
36.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 8 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
36.7%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+11
37.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 11 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
38.0%
Ryan Graham run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
38.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 15 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
39.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
39.2%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
39.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+5
38.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
39.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:0557% → 58%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
42.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 9 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
42.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
41.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
41.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+13
42.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 13 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
41.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 2
OPP 11
-9
41.8%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 20 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by Toled Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-7
43.3%
Logan Woodside sacked by Sean Folliard for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+44
42.1%
Jameson Vest 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:1142% → 56%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
41.5%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 16 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
41.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
43.4%
Ryan Graham run for 22 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
44.6%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-8
44.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 2 yds to the Toled 33 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+10
43.4%
Ryan Graham run for 10 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+9
44.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
45.4%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
45.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 3 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+10
45.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 10 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
47.6%
Ryan Graham run for 5 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:0745% → 46%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
54.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+21
54.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 21 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
54.2%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
54.4%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Shawun Lurry return for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1159% → 58%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
58.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
59.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
58.5%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
57.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0141% → 39%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
59.2%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
59.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+5
60.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
60.1%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+11
61.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Darryl Richards for 11 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
61.5%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
61.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds , D.J. Brown returns for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:4362% → 65%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
62.3%
Jordan Huff run for 6 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-2
63.6%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+12
62.4%
Ryan Graham run for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
65.1%
Ryan Graham run for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
65.7%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
64.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
64.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0935% → 35%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
65.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 17 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
65.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2265% → 63%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
64.8%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
65.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
63.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q3 14:21
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
63.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:1237% → 54%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
62.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
62.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
62.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+3
63.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
62.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+27
45.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 27 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:2852% → 75%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 10 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
56.2%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
57.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
56.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 9 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
59.5%
Tommy Mister run for 8 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
60.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
60.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
61.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
61.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+13
61.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 13 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
62.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
63.4%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
75.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 19 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:2827% → 45%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
73.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 13 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
72.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 14 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
70.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+10
71.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
70.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 11 yds to the NoIll 22 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 14
OPP 37
+1
73.3%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+36
55.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2062% → 60%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
61.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
63.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
61.2%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 4
OWN 30
-6
60.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 38 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 24 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Trayshon Foster) to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2044% → 38%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
57.2%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
57.4%
Logan Woodside sacked by Quintin Wynne for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
62.0%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D.J. Brown at the NoIll 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3164% → 61%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-9
63.8%
Aregeros Turner run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
63.0%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
61.5%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
60.5%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:2943% → 68%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.4%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
58.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
55.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+24
53.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 24 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
53.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
54.1%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 5Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:2140% → 40%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
39.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+15
42.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
44.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Clayton GlasperSimilar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
43.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
43.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Clayton GlasperSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
39.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4167% → 65%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
33.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
32.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 14 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
30.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
32.4%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-5
34.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Paul Perschon) to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 19
OWN 26
0
34.0%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
35.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 52 yds, downed at the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:2137% → 57%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
37.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 8 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-1
40.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+40
36.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 40 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
45.7%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
45.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+11
41.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
44.4%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
44.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 7 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.6%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
43.9%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.1%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
57.3%
Christian Hagan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 2:5452% → 96%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
48.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 7 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
45.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
45.3%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kareem HuntSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+9
46.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 9 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
42.9%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+39
43.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 39 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
37.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26INT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2814% → 12%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
14.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+13
11.5%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
13.5%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+7
11.5%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted Aaron Covington return for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:2595% → 95%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 14
OWN 23
-4
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:15
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-28.5
TD · Q4 12:32
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-22.5
TD · Q3 3:23
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com