Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 17 at Miami (OH) 37

M-OH
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2016 · Yager Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:51 · Kenny Young run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 31 Kenny Young fumbled, forced by Donny Kyre, recovered by MiaOh Gus Ragland
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+31.3Pregame prior−1.5Score differential+23.6Garbage-time factor+13.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:16: Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — CMU win probability +4.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:53: Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +8.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:43: Kenny Young run for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +15.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:00: Nick Dowd 34 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +11.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:16: Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +7.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 0 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 9 at M-OH 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:48CMU 4th & 6 at M-OH 46, down 6
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:23M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 47, up 6
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:02CMU 4th & 5 at M-OH 27, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−6.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:37CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 33, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:00M-OH 4th & 3 at CMU 17, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−7.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:00CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.5%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:00CMU 4th & 2 at M-OH 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:10CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 27, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:51M-OH 4th & 8 at CMU 26, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:55M-OH 4th & 6 at CMU 6, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:41CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:17M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:05M-OH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:16CMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:53M-OH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:43M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:16M-OH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:1966% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
34.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
34.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
34.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
34.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 17 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
34.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 17 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
34.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
34.1%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
34.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+21
34.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 21 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
34.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Gus Ragland) to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2435% → 38%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
34.6%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
34.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
34.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 8 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
34.9%
Maurice Thomas run for 21 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
35.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 27 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
35.3%
Maurice Thomas run for no gain to the CMich 10Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
38.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
37.2%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Tony Reid return for 18 yds to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5338% → 42%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
38.3%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
38.3%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete, QB hurry by OSTMAN, Joe, PENALTY CMU roughing passer (BRIONES, Alex) 13 yards to the CMU12, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
38.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
42.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:4259% → 64%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
40.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
40.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 6 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
40.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
40.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
39.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 8 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
39.6%
RUSH, Cooper pass complete to ROBERSON, Jay for 19 yards to the MIAMI32 (WILLIAMS, TJ), PENALTY CMU personal foul (ROGERS, Kenny) 15 yards to the CMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+8
40.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jay Roberson for 8 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+13
40.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 13 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
39.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 8 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
41.5%
Jahray Hayes run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
40.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
40.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 24 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:1639% → 50%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+26
39.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 26 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
41.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 18 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
42.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 7 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+3
42.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
42.0%
Gus Ragland run for 11 yds to the CMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
42.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete, broken up by Kelby LattaSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
42.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
50.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
46.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
46.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 6 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
46.1%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete, PENALTY CMU false start (ROGERS, Kenny) 5 yards to the CMU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+26
47.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
50
0
43.8%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
50
+4
44.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 4 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
44.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
45.7%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:4352% → 55%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
52.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
52.0%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+12
51.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 12 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
52.5%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+18
52.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 18 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
54.4%
Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-12
54.6%
Gus Ragland sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+1
54.9%
Gus Ragland run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 47 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+10
55.0%
Gus Ragland run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
55.1%
Brad Earnest punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 1:1644% → 47%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+22
55.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 22 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jay Roberson for 3 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
53.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 8 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
52.5%
Cooper Rush run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
52.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+15
53.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, targeting (Tony Reid) to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
50.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 5 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
53.2%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
54.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Deondre DanielsSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
52.6%
Brian Eavey 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
63.8%
Kenny Young run for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
62.2%
HAYES, Jahray rush over left tackle for 7 yards to the CMU31 (MCMULLEN, J.), PENALTY CMU illegal use of hands 12 yards to the CMU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 22
OWN 12
+7
62.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 7 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
62.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q3 14:37
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+14
63.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 14 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 14:37
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
62.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 44 yds, downed at the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:4067% → 79%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
66.5%
Jared Murphy run for no gain to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+32
66.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 32 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
68.4%
Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-4
68.4%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+20
67.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 20 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
68.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Maurice ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
68.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam Shisso, broken up by Otis KearneySimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+7
67.3%
Gus Ragland run for 7 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
78.5%
Nick Dowd 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Austin Stewart for 4 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
75.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
75.3%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+12
76.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 12 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
74.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 5 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
74.4%
Jay Roberson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
74.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Buchi OkaforSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
75.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Buchi OkaforSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:3685% → 98%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.8%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
85.0%
Gus Ragland run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
84.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
85.2%
Gus Ragland run for 8 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+6
84.9%
Gus Ragland run for 6 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
85.5%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+8
85.5%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
90.3%
Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
90.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+22
97.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-9
97.9%
Cooper Rush sacked by Ikeem Allen and Austin Gearing for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+12
98.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 12 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
98.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 5:3698% → 99%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.3%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
98.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+11
98.3%
Maurice Thomas run for 11 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
98.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 13 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
98.3%
Gus Ragland run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+4
98.3%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+1
98.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 8
OPP 26
-5
98.9%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 31 Kenny Young fumbled, forced by Donny Kyre, recovered by MiaOh Gus RaglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
99.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Ikeem Allen for a loss of 10 yards to the CMich 21 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by CMich Kenny Rogers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 20
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Cooper Rush sacked by Zach Smierciak for 0 yards to the CMich 21 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by MiaOh JT Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+6
99.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+4
99.2%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.2%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.2%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.2%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:43
Kenny Young run for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
+15.1
FG · Q3 8:00
Nick Dowd 34 yd FG GOOD
+11.2
TD · Q2 9:53
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com