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BUF

Buffalo 10 at Ohio 34

OHIO
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2016 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:37 · Kyle Deween punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+39.9Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:30: Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +4.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:53: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 75 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +4.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:55: Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Elijah Ball for 36 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +3.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 4:54: Adam Mitcheson 22 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +3.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:16: Quinton Maxwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:37BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10OHIO 4th & 19 at OHIO 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:08OHIO 4th & 9 at BUF 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:17BUF 4th & 5 at OHIO 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:29OHIO 4th & 10 at BUF 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:54BUF 4th & 5 at OHIO 5, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 9 at OHIO 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:31OHIO 4th & 3 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:17BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:54OHIO 4th & 12 at BUF 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:41BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:24OHIO 4th & 12 at BUF 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:10BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:54OHIO 4th & 11 at BUF 43, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:43OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:30OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:53BUF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:55OHIO Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:16OHIO Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
90.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 73 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.0%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
90.0%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
90.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 13 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
90.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 7 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+8
90.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 8 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
90.0%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+8
90.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 8 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-10
90.0%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 14:37
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
90.0%
Kyle Deween punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
89.4%
Maleek Irons run for 9 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
89.5%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
89.5%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 27Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+5
89.4%
Quinton Maxwell run for 5 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-11
89.4%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by Demone Harris for a loss of 11 yards to the Ohio 21Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
89.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
88.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
88.9%
JACKSON, Tyree rush for 13 yards to the UB49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UB illegal formation 5 yards to the UB31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+11
89.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 11 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+2
88.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
88.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-3
88.7%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Kurt Laseak and Blair Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+60
88.9%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Javon Hagan return for 60 yds to the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5289% → 89%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
89.0%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
89.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
88.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
88.7%
Louie Zervos 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 2:4212% → 12%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
88.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 6 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+11
88.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 11 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
88.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
88.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 7 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
88.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-11
87.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Ohio 22 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ohio 37Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 21
OPP 37
0
88.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Toran DavisSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 21
OPP 37
+16
88.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 16 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
88.1%
Adam Mitcheson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:4788% → 93%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
88.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
88.4%
OHIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+33
88.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 33 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
88.8%
Maleek Irons run for 9 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+5
88.8%
Maleek Irons run for 5 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
88.8%
MAXWELL, Quinto pass incomplete to WHITE, Papi, PENALTY UB pass interference 10 yards to the UB11, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
88.8%
Maleek Irons run for 9 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+1
88.8%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.8%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5593% → 94%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
92.8%
Maleek Irons run for no gain to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
92.5%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
94.1%
Louie Zervos 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:366% → 11%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
89.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 75 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:5290% → 95%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
90.4%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 13 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
90.9%
Maleek Irons run for 20 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
90.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 8 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-10
90.8%
IRONS, Maleek rush for 4 yards to the UB22 (HODGE, Khalil), PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the UB36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 12
OWN 0
0
90.1%
MAXWELL, Quinto rush for no gain to the UB36 (FORD, Chris), PENALTY OHIO holding off-setting, PENALTY UB face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
90.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+36
94.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Elijah Ball for 36 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:546% → 9%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
94.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
94.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
94.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+44
94.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 44 yds to the Ohio 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.9%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Ohio 2Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
93.9%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 3Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
94.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 8Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 5Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
90.7%
Adam Mitcheson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4393% → 93%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
92.6%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-1
92.6%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 25Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-5
92.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 20 yds to the Ohio 45 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (-25 Yards) to the Ohio 20Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+8
92.3%
Dorian Brown run for 8 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+5
93.0%
Michael Farkas punt for 45 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 5 yds to the Buff 33 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (11 Yards) to the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:018% → 9%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
92.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 2 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+10
92.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 10 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
92.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+11
92.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
50
+1
91.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 1 yd to the Ohio 49Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+13
91.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 13 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
91.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 7 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
90.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+12
91.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 12 yds to the Ohio 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
90.7%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to ROBINSON, Malco (NELSON, Kylan), PENALTY OHIO pass interference 14 yards to the OHIO3, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
90.6%
Adam Mitcheson 20 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Casey Sayles N/A return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
92.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
91.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-6
91.8%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Blair Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+3
92.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 3 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
92.5%
Kyle Deween punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
92.7%
Maleek Irons run for 8 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+2
93.0%
Maleek Irons run for 2 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
93.0%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
93.0%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
50
0
92.7%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 3
50
0
92.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
93.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
93.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+16
93.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
93.1%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN,KJ, PENALTY UB pass interference 15 yards to the UB19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+10
93.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 10 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
93.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-1
93.7%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Tarell Basham for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
93.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 23 yds, downed at the Ohio 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian Smith, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-2
95.2%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 47Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+14
95.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Kyle Belack for 14 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
95.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
95.3%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
95.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
94.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 38 yds, downed at the Buff 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
94.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
94.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+12
94.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
94.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+8
94.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+6
94.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
94.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Tarell BashamSimilar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-7
94.6%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Blair Brown and Tarell Basham for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 17
OWN 26
0
94.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ohio 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:0596% → 95%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
95.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
95.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 2 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+16
95.7%
Quinton Maxwell run for 16 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
96.1%
Quinton Maxwell run for 11 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
96.2%
Maleek Irons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-1
96.1%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Maleek Irons for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
96.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Kyle Belack, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
95.4%
Michael Farkas punt for 41 yds, downed at the Buff 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:134% → 4%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
95.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 7
0
95.8%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
95.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Javon HaganSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
95.9%
Kyle Deween punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:0197% → 99%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
96.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 21 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
96.8%
Quinton Maxwell run for 4 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
96.8%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
96.8%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.8%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
96.8%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
96.8%
Quinton Maxwell run for 2 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.8%
Quinton Maxwell run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.8%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Quinton Maxwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan Hawkins, broken up by Trent SmartSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+10
99.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 10 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-5
98.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+6
99.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
98.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn BUFFALO Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+2
99.0%
Kyle Deween punt for 36 yds , Papi White returns for 2 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.5%
Dl Knock run for 5 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
99.5%
Dl Knock run for 1 yd to the Ohio 36Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+22
99.5%
Quinton Maxwell run for 22 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.6%
Dl Knock run for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
99.6%
Dl Knock run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-1
99.5%
Dl Knock run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 6
OPP 38
-5
99.5%
OHIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.4%
Grant Rohach run for 7 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+6
99.4%
Grant Rohach pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
99.4%
Grant Rohach sacked by Chukwudi Chukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+2
99.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+11
99.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 11 yds to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:53
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 75 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q2 12:30
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 8:55
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Elijah Ball for 36 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com