Try the model
TOL

Toledo 48 at Akron 17

AKR
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2016 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:57 · Nick Gasser punt for 34 yds, downed at the Toled 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense−2.2Pregame prior−13.1Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Terry Swanson 9 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +5.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Michael Roberts 18 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +8.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:56: Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +10.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:48: JoJo Natson 27 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick) — AKR win probability +11.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:24: Terry Swanson 10 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +10.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:40TOL 4th & 5 at AKR 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47TOL 4th & 4 at AKR 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:13AKR 4th & 4 at TOL 4, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:58TOL 4th & 5 at AKR 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:57AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:07TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:46AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:36AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:27TOL 4th & 1 at AKR 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−4.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:18AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:36AKR 4th & 2 at TOL 12, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:28AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:00TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:56TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:48AKR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:24TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:53TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:47TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:1572% → 71%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
27.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+21
27.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 21 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
28.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
28.1%
Corey Jones run for 3 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
28.3%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
28.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 31 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the Akron 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
29.7%
Jerome Lane 91 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:2470% → 69%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
29.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+24
29.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Personal Foul (Alvin Davis) to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
30.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
30.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+15
30.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 15 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
30.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Akron 7Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
31.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Akron 5Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
31.7%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the Akron 4Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
31.1%
Jameson Vest 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:1931% → 37%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
31.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 17 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
32.0%
Thomas Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 41Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-15
31.8%
Woodson, Thomas pass complete to Edwards Jr., Van for 17 yards to the TOLEDO42, PENALTY AKRON face mask (Tuley-Tillman, Logan) 15 yards to the AKRON26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 26
OWN 26
+15
32.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for no gain to the Akron 26 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Trevon Mathis) to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
33.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
33.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 6 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+26
33.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 26 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
34.4%
Woodson, Thomas pass incomplete to Lane, Jerome, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Mathis, Trevon) 15 yards to the TOLEDO10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AKRON.Similar
Q1 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
34.6%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
35.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
34.7%
Thomas Woodson run for 2 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
36.8%
Tom O'Leary 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:0563% → 68%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
36.6%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
36.7%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+10
37.4%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
37.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 4 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
37.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 11 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
37.0%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
37.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+14
37.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 14 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
37.1%
Terry Swanson run for 18 yds to the Akron 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
37.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 4 yds to the Akron 9Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
32.2%
Terry Swanson 9 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:3235% → 38%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
35.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Willie Ross Jr.) to the Akron 15Similar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 5
OWN 15
+14
35.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kevin Gladney for 14 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
35.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
35.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kevin Gladney for 5 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+19
35.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 19 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
37.7%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (LaVonne Gauthney) to the Akron 48Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+14
36.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 14 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
38.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
38.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-2
38.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
37.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
18 plays · 89 yds · 6:5264% → 66%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
36.2%
Jones-Moore, Damion rush for 5 yards to the TOLEDO10, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 3 yards to the TOLEDO2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 13
OWN 2
+4
36.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+4
36.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+10
37.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
36.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
36.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
35.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+14
35.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 14 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
34.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
34.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Perschon) to the Akron 48Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+7
35.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
35.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+15
36.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 15 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
33.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 15 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
33.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
34.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
35.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
34.1%
Jameson Vest 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4735% → 34%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
35.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 17 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
36.1%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
34.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
34.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 34 yds, downed at the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4066% → 65%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
34.4%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
33.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
34.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
35.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 56 yds, downed at the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1235% → 34%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
35.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 11Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+13
35.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 13 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
35.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
35.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
34.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+10
33.9%
Nick Gasser punt for 37 yds , Corey Jones returns for 10 yds to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:3968% → 77%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
32.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 20 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
30.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 7 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
31.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
31.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kareem HuntSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
23.1%
Michael Roberts 18 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:1924% → 22%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 24Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
24.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 10 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
24.1%
Tra'Von Chapman run for 3 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.5%
Thomas Woodson run for no gain to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-4
24.3%
Thomas Woodson sacked by John Stepec for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 33Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+5
22.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Akron 38Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
23.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
22.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:2976% → 88%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+36
23.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 36 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
22.3%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Akron 33Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
22.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+14
22.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 14 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
22.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Akron 2Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.9%
Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0314% → 27%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
14.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 15 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
14.9%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 39Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+14
14.1%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 14 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
15.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
15.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 4 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+14
14.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 14 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
15.5%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
26.6%
JoJo Natson 27 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:0877% → 93%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
22.7%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+11
22.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
20.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
19.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
18.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
19.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+5
20.8%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
18.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
17.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 11 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
17.7%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Akron 17Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+7
17.6%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
7.1%
Terry Swanson 10 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16INT
9 plays · 61 yds · 1:4911% → 12%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.0%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
10.2%
Woodson, Thomas pass incomplete to Natson, JoJo, PENALTY TOLEDO offside 5 yards to the AKRON33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
10.6%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 12 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
10.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
10.8%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 15 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
11.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 26 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
12.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
12.3%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted, touchback. Connery Swift return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2393% → 98%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
6.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
6.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Damion Jones-MooreSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
7.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 10 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
6.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+15
6.0%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Thompson, Cody, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (Brown, Kyron) 15 yards to the AKRON46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
5.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+44
1.8%
Zach Yousey 44 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
2.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 15 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the Akron 39Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
2.2%
Thomas Woodson run for 1 yd to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
2.1%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
2.0%
Nick Gasser punt for 40 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:1399% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
1.5%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
1.5%
Art Thompkins run for 11 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
1.4%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
1.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan FisherSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+28
0.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 28 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.8%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
0.7%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+5
0.6%
Michael Julian run for 5 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
0.6%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Akron 15Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
0.5%
Michael Julian pass complete to Art Thompkins for 5 yds to the Akron 10Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
Art Thompkins 10 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20INT
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
0.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Akron 29Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 5
OWN 29
+7
0.1%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.1%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 11 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.1%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+32
0.1%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 32 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
0.1%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 6 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Tra'Von Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
0.1%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Tra'Von Chapman pass intercepted, touchback. Delando Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.1%
Brad Smith run for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
0.1%
Brad Smith run for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
JoJo Natson 27 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)
+11.1
TD · Q3 1:24
Terry Swanson 10 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)
-10.5
TD · Q3 9:56
Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com