Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 52 at Ball State 20

BALL
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2016 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:27 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense−52.8Pregame prior−6.8Score differential−40.4Garbage-time factor−20.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:59: Jarvion Franklin 23 Yd Run (Butch Hampton Kick) — WMU win probability +1.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:45: Corey Davis 57 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick) — WMU win probability +3.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:06: Morgan Hagee 39 Yd Field Goal — BALL win probability +1.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:40: Corey Davis 35 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick) — WMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:40: Corey Davis 62 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick) — WMU win probability +7.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:22WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:36BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53BALL 4th & 4 at WMU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:50BALL 4th & 1 at WMU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−1.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 28, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:06BALL 4th & 14 at WMU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:47WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57BALL 4th & 6 at WMU 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:32WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:05BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 30, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:48BALL 4th & 4 at WMU 25, down 32
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:30WMU 4th & 4 at BALL 6, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:27BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 22, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:21BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 47, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:09BALL 4th & 1 at WMU 41, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:08WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:43BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:59WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:45WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:40WMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:40WMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:00WMU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:20WMU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:45BALL Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1INT TD
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:4715% → 16%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
14.7%
James Gilbert run for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
14.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 13 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
15.2%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
15.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+7
15.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
15.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
16.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Cywettnie BrownSimilar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+75
15.6%
Darius Phillips 75 Yd Interception Return (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2515% → 17%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.4%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
15.6%
James Gilbert run for 14 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
15.8%
Malik Dunner run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 2
50
+50
17.0%
Malik Dunner 50 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:1383% → 82%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
16.7%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sean Wiggins) to the WMich 24Similar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+6
16.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 6 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
16.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 2 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
17.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
17.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-5
17.5%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Drake Spears) to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
17.6%
James Coleman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4618% → 18%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
17.5%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
17.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
17.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
17.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, downed at the WMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3782% → 83%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
17.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 10 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
18.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 4 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
18.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 10 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
18.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 4
50
+16
18.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 16 yds to the BALLST 34 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
18.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+8
18.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 8 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
16.6%
Jarvion Franklin 23 Yd Run (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:0617% → 18%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
17.3%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
17.6%
James Gilbert run for 15 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
18.4%
Milas, Jack pass incomplete to Pinter, Danny, PENALTY BALLST holding (Dunner, Malik) 10 yards to the BALLST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+16
17.8%
James Gilbert run for 16 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
18.6%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
18.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
18.4%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
14.5%
Corey Davis 57 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8DOWNS
16 plays · 52 yds · 6:4715% → 16%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
15.3%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
15.5%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
15.5%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
15.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Aaron Hepp for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+11
15.5%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+12
16.0%
James Gilbert run for 12 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
16.3%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-10
16.3%
Milas, Jack pass incomplete to Hazelton Jr., Damon, PENALTY BALLST holding (Dunner, Malik) 10 yards to the WESTMICH47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 18
OPP 47
+6
15.8%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+14
15.8%
Jack Milas run for 14 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
16.5%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
16.4%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
15.8%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the WMich 18Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-3
16.0%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3585% → 85%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
14.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
14.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+6
14.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 6 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
14.9%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 43 yds, downed at the BalSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:0915% → 17%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
15.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 13 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
15.9%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Alex Joss) to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+1
15.1%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+20
15.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Cywettnie Brown for 20 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
15.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 13 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
16.3%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
16.3%
Williamson, Teddy rush for 7 yards to the WESTMICH11, PENALTY BALLST holding (Joss, Alex) 10 yards to the WESTMICH28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
16.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 20
OPP 28
0
16.1%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 20
OPP 28
+6
15.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 6 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+39
17.3%
Morgan Hagee 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:1482% → 91%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
18.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
18.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 12 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
17.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 22 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
17.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 8 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
17.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
17.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 6 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
17.1%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Keishawn Watson) to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+35
9.3%
Corey Davis 35 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
12.2%
Jack Milas pass intercepted Justin Ferguson return for no gain to the WMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3390% → 91%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
10.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
10.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 16Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
9.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
9.4%
James Coleman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:5012% → 12%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
11.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 16 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
12.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+6
12.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 6 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
12.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
12.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+4
12.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 4 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
12.1%
Morgan Hagee 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1992% → 91%
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
8.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
8.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
8.7%
James Coleman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:3211% → 11%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
11.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Teddy Williamson for 8 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
11.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Teddy WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
11.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
50
+12
10.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Teddy Williamson for 12 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
11.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 15 yds Damon Hazelton Jr. fumbled, forced by Asantay Brown, recovered by WMich Asantay BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
3.2%
Corey Davis 62 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:313% → 2%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
2.5%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
2.4%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+9
2.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
2.2%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
2.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Cywettnie BrownSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
2.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Aaron HeppSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
2.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 66 yds, downed at the WMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 5:0597% → 99%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
2.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 1Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+23
2.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 23 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
2.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 14 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
1.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 29 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
1.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+5
1.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
1.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+9
1.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
1.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.2%
Jarvion Franklin 2 Yd Run (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:032% → 2%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
1.7%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+47
1.6%
Jack Milas run for 47 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
1.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
1.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
1.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Cywettnie BrownSimilar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
1.8%
Morgan Hagee 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21FG
18 plays · 91 yds · 9:0498% → 100%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
2.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 14 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
1.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
1.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
1.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
1.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 7 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
0.7%
Davon Tucker run for no gain to the WMich 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
0.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.6%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
0.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
0.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
0.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 13 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
0.5%
Davon Tucker run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+10
0.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 10 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
0.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
0.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
0.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
0.3%
Butch Hampton 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
0.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Cywettnie BrownSimilar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+5
0.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 5 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
0.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 11 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+55
0.2%
Tom Flacco run for 55 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Fabian Johnson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
Tom Flacco run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Fabian Johnson 1 Yd Run (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:280% → 0%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.1%
Malik Dunner run for 4 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
0.1%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
0.1%
Jack Milas run for 3 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
0.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
50
+5
0.1%
Jack Milas run for 5 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
0.1%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
0.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 2 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
0.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
0.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 16 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
0.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Malik Dunner for 10 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.1%
Damon Hazelton Jr. 14 Yd pass from Jack Milas (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:40
Corey Davis 35 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)
-7.9
TD · Q3 14:40
Corey Davis 62 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)
-7.4
TD · Q1 2:45
Corey Davis 57 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com