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BGSU

Bowling Green 20 at Northern Illinois 45

NIU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2016 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:16 · Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+11.0Home team on offense+21.4Score differential+9.2Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:30: James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 37 yds for a TD NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre Harbison) declined, (Jake Suder PAT BLOCKED) — BGSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 7:10: Anthony Maddie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +3.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:47: Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +6.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:03: James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:45: Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:46BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:01BGSU 4th & 21 at BGSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:44NIU 4th & 6 at BGSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:20BGSU 4th & 1 at NIU 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:12BGSU 4th & 8 at NIU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:49NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:18NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:15BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:02NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:16BGSU 4th & 3 at NIU 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:13BGSU 4th & 8 at NIU 8, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:26NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 10, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:42BGSU 4th & 28 at NIU 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:46NIU 4th & 4 at BGSU 44, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:22BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:35BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:05NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:39BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:53NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:30BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:10NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:47NIU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:03BGSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:45NIU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:40NIU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1112% → 12%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.3%
James Morgan run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
88.2%
James Morgan run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
88.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Tavarus Wade) to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-2
88.1%
Joseph Davidson punt for 47 yds , Ezra Saffold returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2588% → 88%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.0%
Anthony Maddie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
87.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 10 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
87.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
87.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
87.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
87.6%
Tommy Mister run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
87.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Shane Wimann) to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
87.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+21
87.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 21 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
88.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 14 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:1712% → 16%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.7%
Josh Cleveland run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
87.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ladell Fleming) to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
87.5%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
87.5%
Morgan, James pass incomplete to Miller, Scott, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Payton, Jamaal) 4 yards to the BOWLGREEN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
87.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 9 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
87.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
50
-3
87.2%
James Morgan sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+5
87.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (William Lee) to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+16
87.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 16 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
86.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 3 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+12
86.6%
Fred Coppet run for 12 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
86.5%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
86.4%
Morgan, James pass incomplete to Moore, Ronnie, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Olootu, Mayomi) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q1 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.4%
Josh Cleveland pass incomplete to Leonard SkatteboSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.3%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the NoIll 2Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:4185% → 87%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
85.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 14 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
84.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
85.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+12
84.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 12 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
85.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
85.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+13
85.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 13 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
85.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+17
85.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to D.J. Brown for 17 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
84.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:4914% → 13%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
86.5%
James Morgan sacked by Austin Smaha for a loss of 11 yards to the BwGrn 14 James Morgan fumbled, forced by Austin Smaha, recovered by BwGrn Logan Dietz , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+30
86.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D.J. Brown at the NORTHERNIL 41 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Alfonso Mack) to the BwGrn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1687% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
86.9%
Anthony Maddie run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
87.0%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
86.9%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
86.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for no gain to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
86.6%
Christian Hagan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:0913% → 18%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
86.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joe Sanders) to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+29
86.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 29 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
86.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+37
82.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 37 yds for a TD NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre Harbison) declined, (Jake Suder PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:1484% → 88%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.6%
Anthony Maddie run for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
83.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
84.1%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
83.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
84.0%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
83.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
84.0%
D.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+11
84.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to D.J. Brown for 11 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
84.1%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
83.9%
D.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+13
83.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
84.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.7%
Anthony Maddie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 3:5114% → 12%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
86.4%
Coppet, Fred rush for 9 yards to the BOWLGREEN44, PENALTY BOWLGREEN illegal motion (Miller, Scott) 5 yards to the BOWLGREEN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+10
86.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 10 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
85.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 11 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Marquis ZimmermanSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-5
85.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Ryan Hunter) to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+12
87.5%
James Morgan run for 12 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
86.9%
Ronnie Moore run for 6 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
85.6%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
85.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
86.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
88.2%
Jake Suder 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Josh CorcoranSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1688% → 89%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
87.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
88.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-10
88.3%
Bouagnon, Joel rush for 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL46, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Myers, Levon) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+8
88.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 8 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
88.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:1511% → 11%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
89.1%
Josh Cleveland run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
88.5%
James Morgan run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Josh ClevelandSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
88.9%
James Morgan pass intercepted Mycial Allen return for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1890% → 90%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
89.8%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
50
0
89.9%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted Jamari Bozeman return for no gain to the BwGrn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:5111% → 11%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
89.3%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+13
89.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 13 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
89.3%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2888% → 87%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
88.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 11 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
88.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 2 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
88.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
87.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+18
87.1%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 51 yds , Will Watson returns for 18 yds to the BwGrn 45 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0312% → 12%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
87.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
87.7%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+8
87.9%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
88.1%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Joseph Davidson pass intercepted Jackson Abresch return for no gain to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:1389% → 96%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
89.1%
Anthony Maddie run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
89.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
89.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
95.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:576% → 6%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
94.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Ben Steward) to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
94.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
94.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+6
94.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
94.5%
Joseph Davidson punt for 57 yds , Shawun Lurry returns for no gain to the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2796% → 95%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
95.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
95.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-4
95.7%
D.J. Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+5
95.5%
Anthony Maddie run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
95.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Will Watson at the BwGrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:545% → 13%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
94.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 11 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
94.8%
Donovan Wilson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
94.6%
James Morgan run for 4 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
94.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 9 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+10
94.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 10 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
94.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 19 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
94.3%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1590% → 97%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
89.6%
Maddie, Anthony rush for 4 yards to the NORTHERNIL29, PENALTY NORTHERNIL face mask (Myers, Levon) 11 yards to the NORTHERNIL14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 21
OWN 14
+15
89.6%
Jordan Huff run for 15 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
89.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 16 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
90.6%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
90.4%
Jordan Huff run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
90.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 23 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
90.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
96.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 39 yds · 3:154% → 3%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
95.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 17 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
95.4%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
95.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+6
95.8%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+4
95.8%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
95.7%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-1
95.7%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
96.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 7 yds to the NoIll 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Janarvis PoughSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q4 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q4 12:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3998% → 98%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
98.0%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
97.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-5
97.9%
Maddie, Anthony rush for 4 yards to the NORTHERNIL19, PENALTY NORTHERNIL illegal formation 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
98.0%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 8
OWN 10
+15
97.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 34 yds , Will Watson returns for 15 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -18 yds · 1:283% → 3%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
96.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
96.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-22
97.0%
James Morgan sacked by Austin Smaha for a loss of 22 yards to the NoIll 47 James Morgan fumbled, forced by Austin Smaha, recovered by BwGrnSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 28
OPP 47
0
97.4%
Joseph Davidson punt for 27 yds, downed at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:4498% → 98%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
98.1%
Anthony Maddie run for 10 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
98.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Spencer Tears) to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
98.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+15
98.2%
Maddie, Anthony pass incomplete to Blake, Christian, PENALTY BOWLGREEN pass interference (Watson, Will) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
98.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 12 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
98.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
50
+3
98.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
98.5%
Tommy Mister run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
98.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
98.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Will Watson at the BwGrn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
98.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 14 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Hunter FolkertsmaSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Vanel Dossous for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3499% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
98.8%
Jordan Huff run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
98.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.0%
Anthony Maddie run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+13
99.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+6
99.1%
Maddie, Anthony pass incomplete to Blake, Christian, PENALTY BOWLGREEN holding (Jackson Jr., Robert) 6 yards to the BOWLGREEN6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.8%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Janarvis PoughSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
99.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Terence Stephens Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:03
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q3 9:47
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q3 0:45
Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com