Try the model
OHIO

Ohio 31 at Toledo 26

TOL
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2016 · Glass Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:18 · Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds , Papi White returns for 19 yds to the Toled 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+36.4Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:37: Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 98 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +14.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 6:00: Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 25 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +23.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:39: Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 24 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +17.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:08: Dorian Brown run for 51 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +23.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:28: Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TOL win probability +18.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:18TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:48OHIO 4th & 16 at TOL 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:29TOL 4th & 4 at OHIO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:19OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:20TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:13OHIO 4th & 17 at OHIO 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:29TOL 4th & 8 at OHIO 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−6.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00OHIO 4th & 8 at TOL 36, up 8
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−0.3
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:43TOL 4th & 18 at OHIO 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−2.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:11OHIO 4th & 13 at TOL 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−4.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−14.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:00OHIO 4th & 14 at TOL 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:31OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 47, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 9:17OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:55OHIO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:37TOL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:00OHIO Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:39TOL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:08OHIO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:28TOL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.7%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
88.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+4
88.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
88.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
88.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+51
88.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 41 yds OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:4012% → 13%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
87.7%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+29
87.7%
Quinton Maxwell run for 29 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
87.7%
Papi White run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-8
87.1%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 8 yards to the Ohio 44 Quinton Maxwell fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
87.4%
Michael Farkas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
87.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for no gain to the Toled 18Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-3
87.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 13
OWN 15
-5
87.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Storm Norton) to the Toled 10Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 18
OWN 10
0
87.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Javon HaganSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 18
OWN 10
+19
87.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds , Papi White returns for 19 yds to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
86.4%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-10
86.4%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 16
OPP 33
0
86.7%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 16
OPP 33
0
86.8%
Michael Farkas punt for 27 yds, downed at the Toled 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:4386% → 85%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
86.2%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+18
86.3%
Terry Swanson run for 18 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
86.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 24 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
86.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+2
86.7%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
86.7%
Logan Woodside run for 6 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
86.8%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-3
85.7%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
85.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael Roberts, broken up by Chad MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
84.7%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-2
84.7%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
85.0%
MAXWELL, Quinton pass incomplete to SMITH, Sebastian, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (MATHIS, Trevon) 10 yards to the OHIO40, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
84.4%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
84.5%
Dorian Brown run for 20 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
84.2%
Papi White run for 23 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-23
83.9%
Quinton Maxwell run for a loss of 23 yards to the Toled 48 Quinton Maxwell fumbled, forced by Ja'Wuan Woodley,Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 41
OPP 48
0
84.5%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 41
OPP 48
0
84.7%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Dorian BrownSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 41
OPP 48
0
85.0%
Michael Farkas punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:3083% → 84%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+19
83.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 19 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
83.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+11
83.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
84.0%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
83.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+8
83.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
50
0
83.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 31 yds, downed at the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
81.9%
Dorian Brown run for 21 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
81.2%
Quinton Maxwell run for 5 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
81.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Kyle BelackSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
81.1%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
82.0%
Michael Farkas punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
82.2%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
82.1%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
81.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+57
81.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the TOLEDO 34 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ohio 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:5919% → 26%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
81.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 16 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.2%
Quinton Maxwell run for 2 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
80.1%
Quinton Maxwell run for 1 yd to the Ohio 43Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+57
73.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Kyle Belack for 57 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
50
+3
75.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
76.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Paul Perschon) to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+3
74.9%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Chad Moore return for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
70.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
71.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-7
71.6%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by Ja'Wuan Woodley for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 44Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
73.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 37 yds, downed at the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:3871% → 75%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
71.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+48
71.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 48 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
74.4%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (MILLER, London) 15 yards to the OHIO14, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
74.4%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
74.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Paul Perschon) to the Ohio 19Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+4
73.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+3
73.3%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
75.0%
Jameson Vest 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2827% → 42%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
72.9%
Greg Windham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 28Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+24
73.9%
Greg Windham run for 24 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
71.5%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
71.4%
Dorian Brown run for 9 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
71.2%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+33
58.3%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 33 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 1:5060% → 64%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
59.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
61.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
61.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
60.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
60.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
60.0%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JONES, Corey, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal shift 5 yards to the OHIO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+10
59.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 10 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+8
58.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 8 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
64.0%
Jameson Vest 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
59.2%
Papi White run for 20 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.3%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
57.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kyle Belack for 17 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
56.9%
Papi White run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
56.5%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-4
57.1%
Greg Windham run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
58.7%
Michael Farkas punt for 33 yds, downed at the Toled 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
2 plays · 97 yds · 0:2957% → 71%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
56.5%
HUNT, Kareem rush for 28 yards to the TOLEDO31 (MILLER, London), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (JEPPESEN, Nate) 1 yards to the TOLEDO2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+98
70.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 98 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 44 yds · 0:0030% → 34%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
69.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 32 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.2%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Kyle Belack, broken up by Connery SwiftSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
67.2%
Dorian Brown run for 11 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
66.2%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Toled 29 Dorian Brown fumbled, forced by John Stepec, recovered by Toled Treyvon HesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
71.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
71.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+6
70.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 6 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
72.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 20 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
74.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
75.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
73.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for no gain to the Ohio 34Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-15
72.1%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea for 6 yards to the OHIO28 (FOX, Jalen), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (HUNT, Kareem) 15 yards to the OHIO49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
69.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5133% → 57%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
67.3%
WINDHAM, Greg pass incomplete to BALL, Elijah, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (HOLLMAN, Kadar) 15 yards to the OHIO35, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
66.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
66.3%
Greg Windham run for 1 yd to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+37
66.4%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 37 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
42.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 25 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1549% → 71%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.5%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
51.2%
Terry Swanson run for 12 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
51.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
53.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+11
52.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
53.1%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
71.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 24 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:2038% → 50%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
62.2%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
60.5%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+36
60.8%
Dorian Brown run for 36 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
58.0%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-5
58.0%
OHIO Penalty, false start (Josh Cooper) to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 13
OPP 22
0
58.5%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 13
OPP 22
0
61.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
49.8%
Louie Zervos 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0652% → 53%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
52.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-1
51.8%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+21
50.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 21 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
53.8%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+6
52.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
53.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:2955% → 87%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
45.5%
Dorian Brown run for 7 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+5
45.3%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
45.3%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 20Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+2
46.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Mason Morgan for 2 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+13
42.4%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 13 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
39.2%
Dorian Brown run for 9 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
36.8%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
13.5%
Dorian Brown run for 51 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26MISSED FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0287% → 88%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
13.1%
WHITE, Papi rush for 24 yards to the TOLEDO4 (ROGERS, DeJuan), PENALTY OHIO illegal block (PRUEHS, Jake) 15 yards to the TOLEDO43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+3
13.4%
Quinton Maxwell run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 22
OPP 40
+5
13.4%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+3
14.0%
Papi White run for 3 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+49
11.6%
Louie Zervos 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:3213% → 38%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
13.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson, broken up by Chad MooreSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
13.0%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+11
12.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 11 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
14.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+14
15.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 14 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
16.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 3 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+18
16.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 18 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
19.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 8 yds to the Ohio 10Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
38.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 0:5281% → 87%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
19.4%
Quinton Maxwell run for 1 yd to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
18.1%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
16.6%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 9 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
14.4%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
11.1%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-1
11.8%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
13.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 28 yds, downed at the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
11.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 23 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
14.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
18.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-5
16.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-5
12.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:00
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Papi White for 25 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-23.5
TD · Q4 8:08
Dorian Brown run for 51 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-23.3
TD · Q4 3:28
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com