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AKR

Akron 20 at Buffalo 41

BUF
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2016 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.4BUF 48.3%Tom O'Leary 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 20 · Q3 10:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:33 · Tom O'Leary 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior−17.8Home team on offense+4.8Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:22: Tyree Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +10.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:18: Jordan Johnson run for 61 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +12.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:42: Tyree Jackson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +12.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:29: Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 33 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +17.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:34: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +10.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:16AKR 4th & 11 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:23BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:58AKR 4th & 6 at BUF 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:44AKR 4th & 6 at BUF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:36BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 6:11AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 44, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.6%
    average punt
  8. Q1 3:04BUF 4th & 6 at AKR 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q1 2:58AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:38AKR 4th & 8 at BUF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 12:33BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 10:48AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q2 6:15AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:32BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:33AKR 4th & 5 at BUF 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−11.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:28BUF 4th & 5 at AKR 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:55AKR 4th & 3 at BUF 42, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−3.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:23BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:18AKR 4th & 10 at BUF 25, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−12.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:28AKR 4th & 7 at BUF 25, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−5.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:43AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 6:22BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:18BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:42BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:29AKR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:34BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:50BUF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
15.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
15.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
15.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+40
15.5%
Kyle Deween punt for 47 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 40 yds to the Buff 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
16.2%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 11
50
0
16.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 11
50
0
16.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 11
50
0
16.3%
Nick Gasser punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
16.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
16.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
16.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
16.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 27 yds, downed at the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:1483% → 81%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
17.2%
JoJo Natson run for 13 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
17.2%
Thomas Woodson sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 49 Thomas Woodson fumbled, recovered by Akron Thomas Woodson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+2
17.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+12
17.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 12 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+14
17.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 14 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
17.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
17.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
17.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
19.0%
Tom O'Leary 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
19.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
18.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
18.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 35 yds, downed at the Akron 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
19.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
19.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
19.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 5
OWN 44
-16
19.5%
Nick Gasser run for a loss of 16 yards to the Akron 28 Nick Gasser fumbled, recovered by Akron Nick GasserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1321% → 22%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
20.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Akron 20Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+10
20.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 10 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
20.6%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Akron 10Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
20.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
20.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
22.0%
Adam Mitcheson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
21.4%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-4
21.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 6 yds to the Akron 39 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
21.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr., broken up by Brandon CrawfordSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+10
21.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 10 yds to the Akron 39 AKRON Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+17
21.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 35 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 17 yds to the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3823% → 24%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
23.4%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+17
23.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 17 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
23.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
24.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
25.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
24.5%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+34
24.3%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Kyron Brown return for 34 yds to the Buff 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4477% → 76%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
22.6%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
22.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
22.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
24.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome Lane, broken up by Tim RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
26.1%
[SGUN], EILAND, Jamarl rush for 1 yard to the UB36 (BELL, Brian), PENALTY UB illegal block (JOHNSON, Jordan) 15 yards to the UB20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+6
25.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 19
OWN 26
0
25.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+6
25.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 13
OWN 32
-3
25.0%
Kyle Deween punt for 44 yds , JoJo Natson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
25.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for no gain to the Akron 21Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
25.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
25.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the Akron 30Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+47
26.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUFFALO 33 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:3529% → 42%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
28.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
28.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
29.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+41
28.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 41 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
31.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
41.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Manny Morgan run for no gain to the Akron 25Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.6%
[SGUN], WOODSON, Thomas pass intercepted by SLACK, Tatum at the AKRON43, SLACK, Tatum return to the AKRON47 (WOLF, Austin), PENALTY UB offside (DOUGLAS, Remain) 5 yards to the AKRON30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
38.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome Lane, broken up by Ishmael HargroveSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
39.9%
Nick Gasser punt for 42 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 7 yds to the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4541% → 54%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
41.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+61
53.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 61 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
50.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
49.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
50.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
50
+9
49.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 9 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
49.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
49.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 5 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
49.0%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted Tim Roberts return for no gain to the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5959% → 45%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
59.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 11 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
59.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
59.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Jordan GeorgeSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
58.6%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+79
45.1%
Kyle Deween punt for 44 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 79 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:2648% → 54%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
47.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 15 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+38
49.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 38 yds to the Akron 8 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
49.1%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 11Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
54.2%
Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:2352% → 52%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
48.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 2 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
47.6%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+16
49.5%
[SGUN], WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to CONEY, A.J., QB hurry by CRAWFORD, Brand, PENALTY UB pass interference (COLLIER, Jordan) 16 yards to the UB47, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
46.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-4
45.9%
Thomas Woodson sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+13
46.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 13 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
45.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 13 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
44.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 14
OPP 21
0
45.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+9
47.9%
Thomas Woodson run for 9 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
48.3%
Tom O'Leary 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
53.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
54.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
54.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
55.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Akron 47Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
53.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm Robinson, broken up by Ulysees Gilbert IIISimilar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
51.8%
Kyle Deween punt for 34 yds, downed at the Akron 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:0046% → 48%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
53.8%
Manny Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 11Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+26
54.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 26 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
52.7%
Manny Morgan run for 8 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
50.6%
Manny Morgan run for 6 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
49.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kevin Gladney for 6 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
49.0%
Manny Morgan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+2
50.1%
Thomas Woodson run for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
51.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
63.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jordan Johnson, broken up by Daumantas VenckusSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
62.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
60.3%
Kyle Deween punt for 31 yds, downed at the Akron 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:1443% → 33%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
57.4%
Thomas Woodson run for 5 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
55.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 9 yds to the BUFFALO 47 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
55.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 8 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
54.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome Lane, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
55.0%
Mykel Traylor-Bennett run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
55.2%
Thomas Woodson run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
52.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
54.8%
Mykel Traylor-Bennett run for 2 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
52.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
53.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
55.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 25
0
67.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3076% → 91%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+36
75.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 36 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
78.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+38
91.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0512% → 31%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
87.7%
Manny Morgan run for 10 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
87.5%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Josh Ward) to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+15
88.2%
[SGUN], WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to NATSON, JoJo, PENALTY UB pass interference (SLACK, Tatum) 15 yards to the UB45, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
87.3%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
86.8%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
87.0%
Mykel Traylor-Bennett run for 3 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
69.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 33 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4882% → 94%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
81.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+24
82.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 24 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan HawkinsSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+20
83.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 20 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
94.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
92.2%
Thomas Woodson run for 1 yd to the Akron 33Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
92.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 6 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+18
92.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Denzel Jones Jr. for 18 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
91.9%
[SGUN], WOODSON, Thomas rush for 5 yards to the UB38 (FRANKLIN, Jarre), PENALTY AKRON holding (WARD, Josh) 10 yards to the AKRON47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
92.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Denzel Jones Jr.Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+12
92.6%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 12 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+13
92.1%
Thomas Woodson run for 13 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
91.0%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
91.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
91.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 7
OPP 25
-12
92.2%
Thomas Woodson sacked by Tatum Slack for a loss of 12 yards to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:5496% → 99%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
96.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 24 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Kevin Gladney, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.3%
Thomas Woodson run for 5 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-15
99.2%
[SGUN], WOODSON, Thomas pass complete to NATSON, JoJo for 12 yards to the AKRON44, PENALTY AKRON personal foul (RITZ, Kyle) 15 yards to the AKRON17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 20
OWN 17
+5
99.3%
Denzel Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the Akron 22Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
99.3%
Nick Gasser punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+9
99.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 9 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 13
OPP 40
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:29
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 33 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q2 4:18
Jordan Johnson run for 61 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q4 13:42
Tyree Jackson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com